AleaSoft developed an energy forecasting methodology that is unique, guaranteeing the highest degree of efficiency and accuracy. AleaSoft provides short, medium and long term energy price forecasts in a variety of markets of the energy industry. It has provided energy price forecasting for the major European electricity markets, providing services for traders, retailers, large clients and electricity companies, such as MIBEL (Spain and Portugal), EPEX SPOT (France), IPEX (Italy), EPEX SPOT (Germany and Austria), SEM (Ireland) and N2EX (UK). AleaSoft complements energy price forecasting with forecasts related to other price-related variables that are also of interest to market players, such as forecasts of commodity prices (oil, gas, coal, CO2 emissions), production by technology (wind, hydro and solar) and meteorological variables, also influencing the energy industry. AleaSoft has been a strong player in the European market, and has ambitions to cater energy price forecasting globally. AleaSoft´s solution for electricity price forecasting can be delivered as a product or as a service. AleaSoft offers the following energy price forecasting products and services:

Short Term Price Forecasting: AleaPriceShort obtains automatic forecasts with a 10 day horizon, at the desired interval

Product-AleaPriceShort

AleaPriceShort obtains automatic forecasts specific to the price of energy, with up to a ten day horizon (240 hours) at the desired interval. AleaPriceShort can be delivered both as a product and as a service. AleaPriceShort as a product, consists in a solution that the AleaSoft team installs for you, and customises to your needs. The AleaPriceShort solution can also be delivered as a service, where you will automatically receive our forecasts every day via email or FTP. The forecasts would be sent prior to the energy market opening, and once the market closes we shall send you both the forecast and the results and include a variety of market related variables for your interest. AleaPriceShort´s is complemented with forecasts related to other price-related variables that are also of interest to market players, such as forecasts of commodity prices (oil, gas, coal, CO2 emissions), production by technology (wind, hydro and solar) and meteorological variables, calendar days, which also have an influencing power on the prices of the energy industry. To do so, AleaSoft uses public data which is easy to obtain and allows both a fast implementation and a low effort in data maintenance. Once the forecast models have been developed by our specialists and included in AleaPriceShort, the solution works automatically:

  • An adaptive scheme updates the model parameters on an ongoing basis, allowing a user with no statistical knowledge to operate the solution.
  • The solution is automatically updated with the relevant data.
  • Additionally, the solution can be set to automatically update data and develop forecasts at a fixed time every day.

The AleaPriceShort solution provides useful information to the user:

  • Graphical options for visualization and analysis of data involved in the forecasting, for a better understanding of the process.
  • A visualization of supply curves, used for the market analysis.
  • A reporting function provides information on the results of forecasts.

AleaPriceShort includes options to analyze the variability, which is useful for the decision-making process:

  • Confidence interval information, providing information on complementary forecasts.
  • Manipulation of supply curves, for market analysis.

AleaSoft is responsible for remote supervision of all models, updating them when changes in the markets occur.

Automatisation: a custom-made installation allows an automatic operation. The system can be configured to automatically update data, generate forecasts and distribute the results, at a certain hour.

Implementation

Modelling: The forecasting models are developed by AleaSoft specialists. The model selection is done using AleaSoft own modelling tools, based on Genetic Algorithms, Neural Networks and Statistics. The modelling process includes the selection and analysis of the suitable explanatory variables. Adaptability: The solution is flexible and can easily be adapted to the user needs:

  • New functionalities
  • New modules
  • Reports
  • Inputs and outputs

Integration:

  • Data feeding and access to input data from internal or external sources.
  • A complete integration with other tools.
  • Output on Excel, Access, Oracle…
  • A customisation reflecting the desired level of automatisation.

Maintenance and support: We offer various support options specific to your particular needs: basic support for the solution, remote maintenance of models and reporting services.

Mid term Demand Forecasting: AleaDemandMid is a solution for hourly forecasting with a 3 year horizon

Product-AleaPriceMid

AleaPriceMid is a solution for hourly forecasting with up to a three year horizon (26280 hours). AleaPriceMid can be delivered both as a product and as a service. AleaPriceMid as a product, consists in a solution that the AleaSoft team installs for you, and customises to your needs. The AleaPriceMid solution can also be delivered as a service, where you will automatically receive our forecasts every day via email or FTP. The forecasts would be sent prior to the energy market opening, and once the market closes we shall send you both the forecast and the results and include a variety of market related variables for your interest. AleaPriceMid´s is complemented with forecasts related to other price-related variables that are also of interest to market players, such as forecasts of commodity prices (oil, gas, coal, CO2 emissions), production by technology (wind, hydro and solar) and meteorological variables, calendar days, commodity prices, socio-economic evolution, which all have an influencing power on the prices of the energy industry. To do so, AleaSoft uses public data which is easy to obtain and allows both a fast implementation and a low effort in data maintenance. Furthermore, it is possible to introduce private data, such as energy plant outages, forecasted commodities prices, exchange rates and prices of CO2 emission rights. Once the forecast models have been developed by our specialists and included in AleaPriceMid, the solution works automatically:

  • An adaptive scheme updates the model parameters on an ongoing basis, allowing a user with no statistical knowledge to operate the solution.
  • The solution is automatically updated with the relevant data.
  • Additionally, the solution can be set to automatically update data and develop forecasts at a fixed time every day.

The AleaPriceMid solution provides useful information to the user: Graphical options for visualization and analysis of data involved in the forecasting, for a better understanding of the process.

  • A visualization of supply curves, used for the market analysis.
  • A reporting function provides information on the results of forecasts.

AleaPriceMid includes options to analyze the variability, which is useful for the decision-making process:

  • A scenarios analysis function is useful to test alternative values for key variables: temperature, hydrology, system capacity, wind production, etc.
  • Tools allowing for Sensitivity Analysis in order to visualize how forecasted prices change when introducing some particular variations for both the demand and offer.
  • Confidence interval information, providing information on complementary forecasts.
  • Manipulation of supply curves, for market analysis.

AleaSoft is responsible for remote supervision of all models, updating them when changes in the markets occur.

Automatisation: a custom-made installation allows an automatic operation. The system can be configured to automatically update data, generate forecasts and distribute the results, at a certain hour.

Implementation

Modelling: The forecasting models are developed by AleaSoft specialists. The model selection is done using AleaSoft own modelling tools, based on Genetic Algorithms, Neural Networks and Statistics. The modelling process includes the selection and analysis of the suitable explanatory variables. Adaptability: The solution is flexible and can easily be adapted to the user needs:

  • New functionalities
  • New modules
  • Reports
  • Inputs and outputs

Integration:

  • Data feeding and access to input data from internal or external sources.
  • A complete integration with other tools.
  • Output on Excel, Access, Oracle…
  • A customisation reflecting the desired level of automatisation.

Maintenance and support: We offer various support options specific to your particular needs: basic support for the solution, remote maintenance of models and reporting services.

Long Term Price Forecasting: AleaPriceLong obtains monthly demand forecasting with a 15 year horizon

Product-AleaPriceLong

AleaPriceLong obtains monthly demand forecasting with up to a fifteen year horizon (up to 180 months). AleaPriceLong can be delivered both as a product and as a service. AleaPriceLong as a product, consists in a solution that the AleaSoft team installs for you, and customises to your needs. The AleaPriceLong solution can also be delivered as a service, where you will automatically receive our forecasts every day via email or FTP. The forecasts would be sent prior to the energy market opening, and once the market closes we shall send you both the forecast and the results and include a variety of market related variables for your interest. AleaPriceLong´s is complemented with forecasts related to other price-related variables that are also of interest to market players, such as forecasts of commodity prices (oil, gas, coal, CO2 emissions), production by technology (wind, hydro and solar) and meteorological variables, calendar days, commodity prices, socio-economic evolution, which all have an influencing power on the prices of the energy industry. To do so, AleaSoft uses public data which is easy to obtain and allows both a fast implementation and a low effort in data maintenance. Furthermore, it is possible to introduce private data, such as energy plant outages, forecasted commodities prices, exchange rates and prices of CO2 emission rights. Once the forecast models have been developed by our specialists and included in AleaPriceLong, the solution works automatically:

  • An adaptive scheme updates the model parameters on an ongoing basis, allowing a user with no statistical knowledge to operate the solution.
  • The solution is automatically updated with the relevant data.
  • Additionally, the solution can be set to automatically update data and develop forecasts at a fixed time every day.

The AleaPriceLong solution provides useful information to the user:

  • Graphical options for visualization and analysis of data involved in the forecasting, for a better understanding of the process.
  • A visualization of supply curves, used for the market analysis.
  • A reporting function provides information on the results of forecasts.

AleaPriceLong includes options to analyze the variability, which is useful for the decision-making process:

  • A scenarios analysis function is useful to test alternative values for key variables: temperature, hydrology, system capacity, wind production, etc.
  • Tools allowing for Sensitivity Analysis in order to visualize how forecasted prices change when introducing some particular variations for both the demand and offer.
  • Confidence interval information, providing information on complementary forecasts.
  • Manipulation of supply curves, for market analysis.

AleaSoft is responsible for remote supervision of all models, updating them when changes in the markets occur.

Automatisation: a custom-made installation allows an automatic operation. The system can be configured to automatically update data, generate forecasts and distribute the results, at a certain hour.

Implementation

Modelling: The forecasting models are developed by AleaSoft specialists. The model selection is done using AleaSoft own modelling tools, based on Genetic Algorithms, Neural Networks and Statistics. The modelling process includes the selection and analysis of the suitable explanatory variables. Adaptability: The solution is flexible and can easily be adapted to the user needs:

  • New functionalities
  • New modules
  • Reports
  • Inputs and outputs

Integration:

  • Data feeding and access to input data from internal or external sources.
  • A complete integration with other tools.
  • Output on Excel, Access, Oracle…
  • A customisation reflecting the desired level of automatisation.

Maintenance and support: We offer various support options specific to your particular needs: basic support for the solution, remote maintenance of models and reporting services.