{"id":77751,"date":"2013-04-09T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2013-04-08T22:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aleasoft.com\/assessment-of-prices-in-the-european-electricity-markets-for-the-first-quarter-of-2013\/"},"modified":"2013-04-09T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2013-04-08T23:00:00","slug":"assessment-prices-european-electricity-markets-first-quarter-2013","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aleasoft.com\/es\/assessment-prices-european-electricity-markets-first-quarter-2013\/","title":{"rendered":"Assessment of Prices in the European Electricity Markets for the first quarter of 2013"},"content":{"rendered":"

Informaci\u00f3n elaborada por AleaSoft, empresa l\u00edder en el desarrollo de modelos de previsi\u00f3n de consumo y precios en mercados energ\u00e9ticos<\/h3>\n

<\/b>9 de abril de 2013.-<\/b> El precio medio del primer trimestre del 2013 en algunos mercados europeos ha ca\u00eddo en t\u00e9rminos interanuales. Los precios altos que se registraron en febrero del a\u00f1o pasado por la ola de fr\u00edo que azot\u00f3 a Europa durante ese mes es uno de los factores que han provocado esta ca\u00edda, aunque en algunos mercados ha incidido la disminuci\u00f3n de la demanda el\u00e9ctrica en combinaci\u00f3n con el aumento en la generaci\u00f3n usando energ\u00edas renovables. S\u00f3lo en el caso del mercado N2EX se ha producido un aumento de los precios durante este trimestre, propiciado por el aumento de los precios del gas y las bajas temperaturas registradas en el Reino Unido durante este per\u00edodo.<\/p>\n

\"Balance<\/a>
\nLos precios del mercado N2EX est\u00e1n expresado \u20ac\/MWh, calculados a partir de los valores originales en \u00a3\/MWh.<\/span><\/p>\n

En el mercadoMIBEL<\/b>de Espa\u00f1a y Portugal la disminuci\u00f3n de la demanda el\u00e9ctrica unido a un importante aumento en la producci\u00f3n en r\u00e9gimen especial e hidr\u00e1ulica ha producido importantes ca\u00eddas en los precios de este primer trimestre, a\u00fan cuando a partir del 1 de enero de 2013 entraron en vigor los nuevos impuestos el\u00e9ctricos. En Espa\u00f1a, el precio promedio de este primer trimestre fue de 40,33 \u20ac\/MWh, correspondi\u00e9ndose con 10,33 \u20ac\/MWh m\u00e1s bajo que en el mismo trimestre del a\u00f1o anterior. En el caso de Portugal, el precio promedio del primer trimestre del 2013 fue de 38,17 \u20ac\/MWh, un valor 13,89 \u20ac\/MWh menor que el primer trimestre del a\u00f1o anterior. La mayor ca\u00edda del precio fue en marzo de este a\u00f1o, en que el precio promedio de Espa\u00f1a se situ\u00f3 en 25,89 \u20ac\/MWh y el de Portugal en 22,79 \u20ac\/MWh, debido a que en muchas horas el precio de casaci\u00f3n fue 0 (el 24,6% de las horas de marzo el precio de Espa\u00f1a fue 0 y el 25% de las horas el precio de Portugal fue 0).<\/p>\n

En el mercadoPOWERNEXT<\/b>de Francia los precios del primer trimestre de este a\u00f1o cayeron 1,47 \u20ac\/MWh en t\u00e9rminos interanuales, situ\u00e1ndose en 54,28 \u20ac\/MWh. Sin embargo, si se analizan los precios mes a mes, excepto en febrero, en que los precios disminuyeron 27,99 \u20ac\/MWh debido a los altos precios registrados en febrero del 2012 por la ola de fr\u00edo, los precios de enero y marzo han aumentado respecto a los de los mismos meses del a\u00f1o anterior, con incrementos de 8,75 \u20ac\/MWh en enero y 13,12 \u20ac\/MWh en marzo.<\/p>\n

En el mercadoPHELIX<\/b>el precio promedio del primer trimestre de este a\u00f1o ha sido de 42,27 \u20ac\/MWh, lo cual es 2,84 \u20ac\/MWh menor que en el mismo trimestre del 2012. Esta ca\u00edda est\u00e1 explicada en parte con los precios altos registrados en febrero del a\u00f1o 2012, siendo el precio de febrero de este a\u00f1o 10,31 \u20ac\/MWh menor que el de febrero del a\u00f1o pasado. En enero se registr\u00f3 un crecimiento de 3,42 \u20ac\/MWh en t\u00e9rminos interanuales y en marzo los precios cayeron 2,03 \u20ac\/MWh.<\/p>\n

De los principales mercados de Europa occidental, el mercado brit\u00e1nicoN2EX<\/b>fue el \u00fanico en el que el precio promedio del trimestre reci\u00e9n finalizado subi\u00f3 8,36 \u00a3\/MWh (8,18 \u20ac\/MWh) situ\u00e1ndose en 53,43 \u00a3\/MWh (62,19 \u20ac\/MWh). Este aumento es debido al aumento de la demanda el\u00e9ctrica en el Reino Unido por las bajas temperaturas registradas, as\u00ed como al aumento del precio del gas.<\/p>\n

En el mercado italianoIPEX<\/b>el precio promedio del primer trimestre del 2013 fue de 63,84 \u20ac\/MWh, un valor 17,39 \u20ac\/MWh m\u00e1s bajo que en el mismo trimestre del 2012. Esta ca\u00edda, adem\u00e1s de estar influenciada por los precios altos alcanzados durante la ola de fr\u00edo de febrero de 2012, est\u00e1 relacionada con una disminuci\u00f3n de la demanda el\u00e9ctrica.<\/p>\n

Previsiones de AleaSoft de precio de los mercados de electricidad para el a\u00f1o 2013<\/b><\/p>\n

En la siguiente tabla se muestra el precio previsto por AleaSoft para los principales mercados europeos, para el segundo, tercer y cuarto trimestres del 2013.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
2013<\/b><\/th>\n MIBEL
\nEspa\u00f1a
\n(\u20ac\/MWh) <\/b><\/th>\n		 MIBEL
\nPortugal
\n(\u20ac\/MWh) <\/b><\/th>\n		 POWERNEXT
\n(\u20ac\/MWh) <\/b><\/th>\n		 PHELIX
\n(\u20ac\/MWh) <\/b><\/th>\n		 N2EX
\n(\u00a3\/MWh) <\/b><\/th>\n		 N2EX
\n(\u20ac\/MWh) <\/b><\/th>\n		 IPEX
\n(\u20ac\/MWh) <\/b><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
T-II<\/td>\n39,22<\/td>\n39,39<\/td>\n43,55<\/td>\n37,89<\/td>\n48,15<\/td>\n56,82<\/td>\n64,83<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
T-III<\/td>\n51,15<\/td>\n51,17<\/td>\n37,38<\/td>\n39,77<\/td>\n46,44<\/td>\n54,80<\/td>\n68,35<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
T-IV<\/td>\n51,34<\/td>\n51,42<\/td>\n47,15<\/td>\n41,32<\/td>\n51,07<\/td>\n60,26<\/td>\n61,24<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

En la siguiente tabla se muestra para cada trimestre el crecimiento del precio previsto respecto al mismo trimestre del a\u00f1o anterior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
2013<\/b><\/th>\n MIBEL
\nEspa\u00f1a
\n(\u20ac\/MWh) <\/b><\/th>\n		 MIBEL
\nPortugal
\n(\u20ac\/MWh) <\/b><\/th>\n		 POWERNEXT
\n(\u20ac\/MWh) <\/b><\/th>\n		 PHELIX
\n(\u20ac\/MWh) <\/b><\/th>\n		 N2EX
\n(\u00a3\/MWh) <\/b><\/th>\n		 N2EX
\n(\u20ac\/MWh) <\/b><\/th>\n		 IPEX
\n(\u20ac\/MWh) <\/b><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
T-II<\/td>\n-6,85<\/td>\n-7,92<\/td>\n2,18<\/td>\n-2,50<\/td>\n4,18<\/td>\n2,61<\/td>\n-8,65<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
T-III<\/td>\n2,06<\/td>\n1,77<\/td>\n-7,04<\/td>\n-3,75<\/td>\n4,64<\/td>\n2,00<\/td>\n-13,23<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
T-IV<\/td>\n11,02<\/td>\n13,24<\/td>\n-7,12<\/td>\n-0,95<\/td>\n-2,36<\/td>\n-1,93<\/td>\n-2,60<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Precios de los combustibles para la generaci\u00f3n de electricidad<\/b><\/p>\n

El precio promedio del barril deBrent<\/b>en este primer trimestre del 2013 ha sido de $ 112,49, situ\u00e1ndose $ 5,93 m\u00e1s bajo que el precio promedio del primer trimestre del 2012. En febrero el precio del barril de Brent subi\u00f3 hasta alcanzar un precio promedio de $ 116,09 pero en marzo los precios volvieron a los valores en los que se ha movido este combustible en los \u00faltimos meses, alcanz\u00e1ndose una media en este mes de 108,81 $\/barril.<\/p>\n

El precio promedio del gasZeebrugge<\/b>yNBP<\/b>en el primer trimestre del 2013 se ha situado en 28,36 \u20ac\/MWh y 25,33 \u00a3\/MWh respectivamente, lo que representa un incremento interanual de 5,31 \u20ac\/MWh para el gas Zeebrugge y de 5,26 \u00a3\/MWh para el gas NBP.<\/p>\n

El precio del carb\u00f3n europeoCIF-ARA<\/b>ha continuado su tendencia bajista, y en el trimestre reci\u00e9n finalizado el precio promedio ha sido de 86,76 $\/tonelada, lo que representa 27,88 $\/tonelada menos que en el primer trimestre del 2012.<\/p>\n

\"Balance<\/a><\/p>\n

Para el resto del 2013 se espera que el precio del Brent<\/b> se mantenga estable alrededor de 110 $\/barril. En cuanto a los precios del gas Zeebrugge<\/b> y NBP<\/b> se espera que bajen en abril hasta 28,05 \u20ac\/MWh y 23,77 \u00a3\/MWh respectivamente y que posteriormente vuelvan a la tendencia alcista para alcanzar a finales de a\u00f1o 30,19 \u20ac\/MWh el gas Zeebrugge<\/b> y 25,59 \u00a3\/MWh el gas NBP<\/b>. En cuanto al precio del carb\u00f3n CIF-ARA<\/b>, se espera que recupere la senda del crecimiento, para alcanzar, a finales de a\u00f1os, los 89,53 $\/tonelada.<\/p>\n

Precios de los derechos de emisiones de CO2<\/b><\/p>\n

El precio promedio de los derechos de emisiones de CO2<\/b> en el primer trimestre del 2013 ha sido de 4,82 \u20ac\/tonelada, que es 3,05 \u20ac\/tonelada menor que en el mismo per\u00edodo del a\u00f1o 2012. Para el resto del a\u00f1o 2013 se espera que el precio se mantenga estable sobre los 5,08 \u20ac\/tonelada.<\/p>\n

\"Precios<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Informaci\u00f3n elaborada por AleaSoft, empresa l\u00edder en el desarrollo de modelos de previsi\u00f3n de consumo y precios en mercados energ\u00e9ticos 9 de abril de 2013.- El precio medio del primer trimestre del 2013 en algunos mercados europeos ha ca\u00eddo en t\u00e9rminos interanuales. Los precios altos que se registraron en febrero del a\u00f1o pasado por la […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":49914,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[568],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-77751","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-noticias"],"yoast_head":"\nAssessment of Prices in the European Electricity Markets for the first quarter of 2013 - AleaSoft Energy Forecasting<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/aleasoft.com\/assessment-prices-european-electricity-markets-first-quarter-2013\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Assessment of Prices in the European Electricity Markets for the first quarter of 2013\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Informaci\u00f3n elaborada por AleaSoft, empresa l\u00edder en el desarrollo de modelos de previsi\u00f3n de consumo y precios en mercados energ\u00e9ticos 9 de abril de 2013.- El precio medio del primer trimestre del 2013 en algunos mercados europeos ha ca\u00eddo en t\u00e9rminos interanuales. 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Los precios altos que se registraron en febrero del a\u00f1o pasado por la […]","og_url":"https:\/\/aleasoft.com\/assessment-prices-european-electricity-markets-first-quarter-2013\/","og_site_name":"AleaSoft Energy Forecasting","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/AleaSoft\/","article_published_time":"2013-04-08T22:00:00+00:00","article_modified_time":"2013-04-08T23:00:00+00:00","og_image":[{"width":750,"height":527,"url":"https:\/\/aleasoft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/04\/20130409-1-energy-forecasting-prices-en.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"AleaSoft Energy Forecasting","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@AleaSoftEnergy","twitter_site":"@AleaSoftEnergy","twitter_misc":{"Escrito por":"AleaSoft Energy Forecasting","Tiempo de lectura":"5 minutos"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/aleasoft.com\/assessment-prices-european-electricity-markets-first-quarter-2013\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/aleasoft.com\/assessment-prices-european-electricity-markets-first-quarter-2013\/"},"author":{"name":"AleaSoft Energy Forecasting","@id":"https:\/\/aleasoft.com\/#\/schema\/person\/99ee8b0f2ecbd56ba78005c6b7864d67"},"headline":"Assessment of Prices in the European Electricity Markets for the first quarter of 2013","datePublished":"2013-04-08T22:00:00+00:00","dateModified":"2013-04-08T23:00:00+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/aleasoft.com\/assessment-prices-european-electricity-markets-first-quarter-2013\/"},"wordCount":1064,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/aleasoft.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/aleasoft.com\/assessment-prices-european-electricity-markets-first-quarter-2013\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/aleasoft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/04\/20130409-1-energy-forecasting-prices-en.jpg","articleSection":["Noticias"],"inLanguage":"es"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/aleasoft.com\/assessment-prices-european-electricity-markets-first-quarter-2013\/","url":"https:\/\/aleasoft.com\/assessment-prices-european-electricity-markets-first-quarter-2013\/","name":"Assessment of Prices in the European Electricity Markets for the first quarter of 2013 - 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