{"id":155929,"date":"2025-04-08T11:52:58","date_gmt":"2025-04-08T09:52:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aleasoft.com\/?p=155929"},"modified":"2025-04-10T03:49:41","modified_gmt":"2025-04-10T01:49:41","slug":"el-espanol-risgos-mercados-energia-politica-trump","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aleasoft.com\/fr\/el-espanol-risgos-mercados-energia-politica-trump\/","title":{"rendered":"Opinion d’Antonio Delgado Rigal, PDG d’AleaSoft, dans El Espa\u00f1ol : \u00ab Les risques sur les march\u00e9s de l’\u00e9nergie face \u00e0 la nouvelle politique de Donald Trump \u00bb."},"content":{"rendered":"

AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, 8 avril 2025. Nouvelle publi\u00e9e dans le journal El Espa\u00f1ol, avec l’avis d’Antonio Delgado Rigal, docteur en intelligence artificielle, fondateur et PDG d’AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, sur les risques possibles sur les march\u00e9s de l’\u00e9nergie face \u00e0 la nouvelle politique de Donald Trump.<\/strong><\/p>\n

AleaSoft - Antonio Delgado Rigal CEO<\/a><\/div>\n

Le pr\u00e9sident am\u00e9ricain Trump repr\u00e9sente une vision du monde centr\u00e9e sur l’int\u00e9r\u00eat national des \u00c9tats-Unis, qui consid\u00e8re avec suspicion toute structure supranationale telle que l’Union europ\u00e9enne. La coh\u00e9sion interne de l’Europe, son autonomie strat\u00e9gique et sa position en tant qu’acteur mondial sont en jeu.<\/p>\n

Dans ce nouveau contexte, elle doit opter pour une plus grande int\u00e9gration politique, renforcer sa capacit\u00e9 de d\u00e9fense, consolider sa souverainet\u00e9 technologique et \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique et diversifier ses alliances internationales au-del\u00e0 du lien transatlantique traditionnel.<\/p>\n

La crise de 2022 a montr\u00e9 \u00e0 quel point l’Europe peut \u00eatre vuln\u00e9rable aux chocs<\/em> g\u00e9opolitiques. Si des progr\u00e8s ont \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9alis\u00e9s en mati\u00e8re de diversification et de r\u00e9silience, la d\u00e9pendance \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique reste une faiblesse structurelle.<\/p>\n

De nouveaux conflits mondiaux ou un repli des \u00c9tats-Unis sous une administration comme celle du pr\u00e9sident Trump pourraient peser davantage sur les march\u00e9s. C’est pourquoi il est crucial d’acc\u00e9l\u00e9rer la transition \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique<\/strong> et de renforcer l’autonomie strat\u00e9gique dans ce domaine.<\/p>\n

Si la politique tarifaire n’est pas assouplie, nous nous dirigeons vers une crise mondiale aux cons\u00e9quences impr\u00e9visibles, et pas seulement sur le plan \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique.<\/p>\n

L’Europe doit se montrer \u00e0 la hauteur. La guerre en Ukraine et la perte possible du soutien inconditionnel des \u00c9tats-Unis obligent le continent \u00e0 repenser son r\u00f4le. Il ne peut plus s’appuyer exclusivement sur des alliances ext\u00e9rieures : il doit d\u00e9velopper ses propres capacit\u00e9s de d\u00e9fense, renforcer sa politique \u00e9trang\u00e8re commune et construire une vision strat\u00e9gique partag\u00e9e. La s\u00e9curit\u00e9 et la d\u00e9fense ne sont plus des questions nationales, mais des piliers essentiels du projet europ\u00e9en.<\/p>\n

Il convient \u00e9galement de garder \u00e0 l’esprit que l’ind\u00e9pendance \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique <\/strong>fait aussi partie de la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 europ\u00e9enne.<\/p>\n

Trump pourrait acc\u00e9l\u00e9rer un changement d\u00e9j\u00e0 en cours : le passage d’un monde domin\u00e9 par le multilat\u00e9ralisme et les alliances traditionnelles \u00e0 un monde plus fragment\u00e9, multipolaire et volatile.<\/p>\n

Sa vision \u00ab\u00a0America first\u00a0\u00bb risque d’affaiblir des organisations comme l’OTAN, de d\u00e9stabiliser les \u00e9quilibres r\u00e9gionaux et de donner des ailes \u00e0 des puissances comme la Chine ou la Russie. L’Europe doit se pr\u00e9parer \u00e0 un monde o\u00f9 la stabilit\u00e9 n’est plus garantie par la pr\u00e9sence am\u00e9ricaine, mais par sa propre capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 agir avec unit\u00e9, rapidit\u00e9 et d\u00e9termination.<\/p>\n

La mondialisation contemporaine qui a d\u00e9but\u00e9 dans les ann\u00e9es 1990 se caract\u00e9rise par une profonde interconnexion mondiale, non seulement sur le plan \u00e9conomique, mais aussi sur le plan technologique, culturel, social et environnemental. Cette mondialisation est menac\u00e9e, avec de graves cons\u00e9quences mondiales si l’on revient 40 ans en arri\u00e8re.<\/p>\n

Les d\u00e9cisions du pr\u00e9sident Trump pourraient modifier consid\u00e9rablement l’environnement strat\u00e9gique des grandes entreprises du secteur de l’\u00e9nergie. Si les \u00c9tats-Unis se retirent des accords sur le climat ou encouragent la production de p\u00e9trole<\/strong> et de gaz<\/strong>, cela pourrait modifier la dynamique mondiale des investissements, encourager une expansion des \u00e9nergies<\/strong> fossiles au d\u00e9triment des \u00e9nergies renouvelables<\/strong> et cr\u00e9er une incertitude r\u00e9glementaire.<\/p>\n

Les entreprises devront s’adapter \u00e0 un environnement plus polaris\u00e9, o\u00f9 les cadres r\u00e9glementaires, les march\u00e9s et les attentes sociales divergent de plus en plus d’une r\u00e9gion \u00e0 l’autre.<\/p>\n

Les entreprises doivent se pr\u00e9parer \u00e0 un \u00e9ventuel ralentissement mondial de la consommation et \u00e0 un sc\u00e9nario de d\u00e9cisions tr\u00e8s dynamiques pour s’adapter aux changements auxquels nous pourrions \u00eatre confront\u00e9s.<\/p>\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, 8 avril 2025. Nouvelle publi\u00e9e dans le journal El Espa\u00f1ol, avec l’avis d’Antonio Delgado Rigal, docteur en intelligence artificielle, fondateur et PDG d’AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, sur les risques possibles sur les march\u00e9s de l’\u00e9nergie face \u00e0 la nouvelle politique de Donald Trump. Le pr\u00e9sident am\u00e9ricain Trump repr\u00e9sente une vision du monde centr\u00e9e […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":155847,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[30,7547],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-155929","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nouvelles","category-opinion"],"yoast_head":"\nOpinion d'Antonio Delgado Rigal, PDG d'AleaSoft, dans El Espa\u00f1ol : \u00ab Les risques sur les march\u00e9s de l'\u00e9nergie face \u00e0 la nouvelle politique de Donald Trump \u00bb. - AleaSoft Energy Forecasting<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Actualit\u00e9 publi\u00e9e dans le journal El Espa\u00f1ol, avec l'avis d'Antonio Delgado Rigal, docteur en intelligence artificielle, fondateur et PDG d'AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, sur les risques possibles sur les march\u00e9s de l'\u00e9nergie face 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