{"id":156590,"date":"2025-04-30T14:13:21","date_gmt":"2025-04-30T12:13:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aleasoft.com\/?p=156590"},"modified":"2025-05-09T03:26:57","modified_gmt":"2025-05-09T01:26:57","slug":"defi-financement-projets-photovoltaiques-bas-prix","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aleasoft.com\/fr\/defi-financement-projets-photovoltaiques-bas-prix\/","title":{"rendered":"Le d\u00e9fi du financement des projets photovolta\u00efques \u00e0 l’\u00e8re des prix bas"},"content":{"rendered":"

AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, 30 avril 2025. L’effondrement des prix pendant les heures d’ensoleillement a mis en p\u00e9ril la viabilit\u00e9 financi\u00e8re de nombreux projets photovolta\u00efques. La cannibalisation des prix, la chute des prix captur\u00e9s, les difficult\u00e9s \u00e0 conclure des AAE dans des conditions favorables et la n\u00e9cessit\u00e9 de solutions structurelles telles que le stockage de l’\u00e9nergie cr\u00e9ent un nouveau paradigme pour le d\u00e9veloppement des \u00e9nergies renouvelables. S’adapter au nouveau contexte n’est plus une option, mais une condition pour continuer \u00e0 progresser.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ces derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, la croissance de l’\u00e9nergie photovolta\u00efque<\/strong> en Europe a \u00e9t\u00e9 vertigineuse. Gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 la baisse des co\u00fbts des modules solaires, \u00e0 des objectifs climatiques ambitieux et \u00e0 un cadre r\u00e9glementaire favorable, le secteur a atteint des niveaux records de nouvelles capacit\u00e9s install\u00e9es. Toutefois, ce succ\u00e8s s’est accompagn\u00e9 d’un nouveau d\u00e9fi : l’effondrement des prix des heures d’\u00e9nergie solaire et ses cons\u00e9quences sur la viabilit\u00e9 financi\u00e8re des nouveaux projets.<\/p>\n

Prix bas et risque de cannibalisation<\/h2>\n

Sur des march\u00e9s tels que l’Espagne, le ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne connu sous le nom de\u00ab\u00a0cannibalisation des prix<\/strong>\u00a0\u00bb est devenu \u00e9vident. Avec la concentration de la production photovolta\u00efque au m\u00eame moment de la journ\u00e9e, entre 9 heures et 17 heures, l’offre est souvent sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 la demande, ce qui r\u00e9duit consid\u00e9rablement le prix horaire au cours de ces p\u00e9riodes. Dans des cas extr\u00eames, comme \u00e0 P\u00e2ques dernier, cette situation a conduit \u00e0 des prix nuls, voire n\u00e9gatifs, pendant plusieurs heures cons\u00e9cutives.<\/p>\n

AleaSoft - mibel spain electricity market prices<\/a>Source : Pr\u00e9par\u00e9 par AleaSoft Energy Forecasting \u00e0 partir des donn\u00e9es de l'OMIE.<\/span><\/div>\n

Impact direct sur le prix captur\u00e9 et la rentabilit\u00e9<\/h2>\n

Pour les d\u00e9veloppeurs, le probl\u00e8me n’est pas le prix moyen journalier du march\u00e9 (pool), mais le prix capt\u00e9<\/strong> par la technologie solaire. En 2024 et jusqu’\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent en 2025, ce prix captur\u00e9 a \u00e9t\u00e9 inf\u00e9rieur de 25 \u00e0 40 % au prix moyen sur certains march\u00e9s. Cela signifie que les revenus r\u00e9els d’une ferme solaire sont nettement inf\u00e9rieurs aux pr\u00e9visions de certains mod\u00e8les financiers trop optimistes.<\/p>\n

AleaSoft - captured price solar photovoltaic spain<\/a>Source : Pr\u00e9par\u00e9 par AleaSoft Energy Forecasting \u00e0 partir des donn\u00e9es de l'OMIE et de Red El\u00e9ctrica.<\/span><\/div>\n

Le r\u00f4le (et les limites) des AAE<\/h2>\n

Lesaccords d’achat d’\u00e9lectricit\u00e9<\/strong> (AAE)<\/strong> ont \u00e9t\u00e9 la solution la plus courante pour att\u00e9nuer le risque de prix et faciliter le financement bancaire<\/strong>. Cependant, dans le contexte actuel, ils souffrent \u00e9galement : les acheteurs sont plus prudents, les contrats depaiement \u00e0 la production<\/strong>sont plus difficiles \u00e0 trouver et davantage de conditions techniques et de garanties sont impos\u00e9es. Les prix, s’ils sont trouv\u00e9s, sont souvent trop bas pour les attentes des d\u00e9veloppeurs.<\/p>\n

La solution structurelle : le stockage et l’hybridation<\/h2>\n

Dans ce contexte, l’hybridation avec des batteries<\/strong> appara\u00eet comme l’une des solutions les plus prometteuses. L’int\u00e9gration du stockage<\/strong> permet de transf\u00e9rer l’\u00e9nergie des heures d’ensoleillement \u00e0 bas prix vers des segments \u00e0 plus forte valeur et d’am\u00e9liorer le profil de livraison du projet, ce qui le rend plus int\u00e9ressant pour les exploitants dans le cadre d’un AAE et r\u00e9duit la d\u00e9pendance \u00e0 l’\u00e9gard des prix du march\u00e9 au comptant. Tout cela contribue \u00e0 accro\u00eetre la bancabilit\u00e9<\/strong> du projet.<\/p>\n

Autres m\u00e9canismes de mon\u00e9tisation pour les batteries<\/h2>\n

Outre l’arbitrage des prix<\/strong>, les batteries offrent de nouvelles sources de revenus : services d’\u00e9quilibrage et d’ajustement<\/strong>, participation aux march\u00e9s de capacit\u00e9<\/strong>, r\u00e9duction des p\u00e9nalit\u00e9s de d\u00e9viation et participation future aux services de flexibilit\u00e9<\/strong> locale.<\/p>\n

Le d\u00e9fi des d\u00e9penses d’investissement et la vision \u00e0 long terme<\/h2>\n

Les prix des batteries continuent de baisser et les \u00e9volutions technologiques et r\u00e9glementaires favorisent leur d\u00e9ploiement. En Espagne, les ench\u00e8res de capacit\u00e9 devraient \u00eatre publi\u00e9es \u00e0 la fin de 2025, ce qui pourrait constituer une source de revenus suppl\u00e9mentaire pour le stockage.<\/p>\n

Conclusion : adaptation ou stagnation<\/h2>\n

Nous sommes \u00e0 un tournant dans le d\u00e9veloppement des \u00e9nergies renouvelables. Le mod\u00e8le photovolta\u00efque traditionnel bas\u00e9 sur \u00ab\u00a0la production et la vente sur place\u00a0\u00bb n’est plus suffisant.<\/p>\n

La rentabilit\u00e9<\/strong> des projets renouvelables<\/strong> augmente gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 l’hybridation avec les batteries. Ce mois de janvier a marqu\u00e9 le d\u00e9but d’une nouvelle p\u00e9riode quinquennale, la sixi\u00e8me du si\u00e8cle, au cours de laquelle les technologies renouvelables avec hybridation joueront un r\u00f4le de premier plan dans le processus de d\u00e9carbonisation, en particulier l’\u00e9nergie photovolta\u00efque.<\/p>\n

AleaSoft Energy Forecasting<\/strong> et AleaStorage<\/strong> aident nos clients<\/a> \u00e0 simuler des sc\u00e9narios de revenus r\u00e9alistes, \u00e0 \u00e9valuer la rentabilit\u00e9 des hybridations de batteries et \u00e0 d\u00e9finir des strat\u00e9gies de marketing adapt\u00e9es au nouvel environnement.<\/p>\n

Analyse d’AleaSoft Energy Forecasting sur les perspectives des march\u00e9s europ\u00e9ens de l’\u00e9nergie et des batteries<\/h2>\n

Le jeudi 22 mai, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting<\/strong> organisera le 55\u00e8me webinaire<\/a> de sa s\u00e9rie de webinaires mensuels<\/a>. A cette occasion, le webinaire portera sur les batteries<\/strong> et sera anim\u00e9 par Javier Adiego Orera, CEO et co-fondateur de 7C Energy<\/strong>. Il discutera de l’importance des pr\u00e9visions de la demande<\/strong> et de la bande secondaire<\/strong>, des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices en fonction du degr\u00e9 d’utilisation des batteries et de leur optimisation financi\u00e8re, ainsi que des questions r\u00e9glementaires li\u00e9es au stockage de l’\u00e9nergie<\/strong>, y compris les subventions et les paiements pour la capacit\u00e9<\/strong>. Ensuite, la table ronde abordera l’hybridation<\/strong> avec l’\u00e9nergie \u00e9olienne et les services auxiliaires<\/strong>, ainsi que les r\u00e9seaux de transmission et de distribution<\/strong>. Kiko Maza, directeur g\u00e9n\u00e9ral de WeMake Consultores<\/strong>, et Luis Atienza Serna, ancien ministre du gouvernement espagnol<\/strong> et ancien pr\u00e9sident de Red El\u00e9ctrica<\/strong>, participeront \u00e9galement \u00e0 cette table ronde. Comme d’habitude, le webinaire analysera l’\u00e9volution et les perspectives des march\u00e9s europ\u00e9ens de l’\u00e9nergie.<\/p>\n

Source :AleaSoft Energy Forecasting<\/strong>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, 30 avril 2025. L’effondrement des prix pendant les heures d’ensoleillement a mis en p\u00e9ril la viabilit\u00e9 financi\u00e8re de nombreux projets photovolta\u00efques. La cannibalisation des prix, la chute des prix captur\u00e9s, les difficult\u00e9s \u00e0 conclure des AAE dans des conditions favorables et la n\u00e9cessit\u00e9 de solutions structurelles telles que le stockage de l’\u00e9nergie […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":156362,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[30,7547],"tags":[7557,7657,7552],"class_list":["post-156590","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nouvelles","category-opinion","tag-batteries-fr","tag-financement-de-projets-renouvelables","tag-stockage-energie"],"yoast_head":"\nLe d\u00e9fi du financement des projets photovolta\u00efques \u00e0 l'\u00e8re des prix bas - AleaSoft Energy Forecasting<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"La chute des prix pendant les heures d'ensoleillement a mis en p\u00e9ril la viabilit\u00e9 financi\u00e8re de nombreux projets photovolta\u00efques.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/aleasoft.com\/fr\/defi-financement-projets-photovoltaiques-bas-prix\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Le d\u00e9fi du financement des projets photovolta\u00efques \u00e0 l'\u00e8re des prix bas\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"La chute des prix pendant les heures d'ensoleillement a mis en p\u00e9ril la viabilit\u00e9 financi\u00e8re de nombreux projets photovolta\u00efques.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/aleasoft.com\/fr\/defi-financement-projets-photovoltaiques-bas-prix\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"AleaSoft Energy Forecasting\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/AleaSoft\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-04-30T12:13:21+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-05-09T01:26:57+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/aleasoft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/20250430-AleaSoft-captured-price-solar-photovoltaic-spain.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2304\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1582\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"AleaSoft Energy Forecasting\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@AleaSoftEnergy\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@AleaSoftEnergy\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"AleaSoft Energy Forecasting\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aleasoft.com\\\/fr\\\/defi-financement-projets-photovoltaiques-bas-prix\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aleasoft.com\\\/fr\\\/defi-financement-projets-photovoltaiques-bas-prix\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"AleaSoft Energy Forecasting\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aleasoft.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/e83ba5c714f71473e3096e6f5bffcd61\"},\"headline\":\"Le d\u00e9fi du financement des projets photovolta\u00efques \u00e0 l’\u00e8re des prix bas\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-04-30T12:13:21+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-05-09T01:26:57+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aleasoft.com\\\/fr\\\/defi-financement-projets-photovoltaiques-bas-prix\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1001,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aleasoft.com\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aleasoft.com\\\/fr\\\/defi-financement-projets-photovoltaiques-bas-prix\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aleasoft.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/05\\\/20250430-AleaSoft-captured-price-solar-photovoltaic-spain.png\",\"keywords\":[\"Batteries\",\"Financement de projets renouvelables\",\"Stockage \u00e9nergie\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Nouvelles\",\"Opinion\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aleasoft.com\\\/fr\\\/defi-financement-projets-photovoltaiques-bas-prix\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aleasoft.com\\\/fr\\\/defi-financement-projets-photovoltaiques-bas-prix\\\/\",\"name\":\"Le d\u00e9fi du financement des projets photovolta\u00efques \u00e0 l'\u00e8re des prix bas - 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