{"id":161889,"date":"2025-11-05T13:12:29","date_gmt":"2025-11-05T12:12:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aleasoft.com\/?p=161889"},"modified":"2025-11-06T07:12:22","modified_gmt":"2025-11-06T06:12:22","slug":"previsions-2010-precision-extraordinaire","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aleasoft.com\/fr\/previsions-2010-precision-extraordinaire\/","title":{"rendered":"Les pr\u00e9visions pour 2010 arrivent \u00e0 leur terme avec une pr\u00e9cision extraordinaire."},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, 5 novembre 2025. En octobre 2025, l&rsquo;horizon des pr\u00e9visions de prix \u00e0 long terme \u00e9labor\u00e9es par AleaSoft Energy Forecasting en novembre 2010 pour le march\u00e9 \u00e9lectrique ib\u00e9rique a \u00e9t\u00e9 atteint. Quinze ans plus tard, le r\u00e9sultat confirme la fiabilit\u00e9 de la m\u00e9thodologie de l&rsquo;entreprise et sa capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 anticiper l&rsquo;\u00e9volution des march\u00e9s de l&rsquo;\u00e9nergie \u00e0 long terme. Le prix moyen r\u00e9el du march\u00e9 en octobre 2025 \u00e9tait de 75,75 \u20ac\/MWh, alors que le prix pr\u00e9vu en 2010 \u00e9tait de 76,63 \u20ac\/MWh, soit une diff\u00e9rence de 1,2 % ou 0,88 \u20ac\/MWh. La valeur r\u00e9elle s&rsquo;est \u00e9galement situ\u00e9e dans la fourchette pr\u00e9vue par AleaSoft, comprise entre 64,00 et 86,07 \u20ac\/MWh.<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2>Une pr\u00e9vision sur quinze ans qui a confirm\u00e9 la stabilit\u00e9 de l&rsquo;\u00e9quilibre du march\u00e9<\/h2>\n<p>Cette pr\u00e9vision a \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9labor\u00e9e dans un contexte radicalement diff\u00e9rent de celui d&rsquo;aujourd&rsquo;hui. En 2010, les cycles combin\u00e9s au gaz concentraient une grande partie de la production \u00e9lectrique, le charbon faisait encore partie du mix \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique et l&rsquo;\u00e9nergie solaire photovolta\u00efque commen\u00e7ait \u00e0 peine \u00e0 se d\u00e9velopper. L&rsquo;interconnexion entre l&rsquo;Espagne et la France \u00e9tait deux fois moins importante qu&rsquo;aujourd&rsquo;hui et la p\u00e9n\u00e9tration des <strong>\u00e9nergies renouvelables<\/strong> \u00e9tait beaucoup plus faible.<\/p>\n<p>Malgr\u00e9 les profonds changements technologiques, r\u00e9glementaires et structurels survenus depuis lors, les prix r\u00e9els du <strong>march\u00e9 ib\u00e9rique<\/strong> ont suivi la tendance centrale pr\u00e9vue en 2010. Ce r\u00e9sultat d\u00e9montre que les mod\u00e8les d&rsquo;AleaSoft ont r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 identifier correctement le <strong>niveau d&rsquo;\u00e9quilibre<\/strong> vers lequel tendent les prix de l&rsquo;\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 \u00e0 <strong>long terme<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<div style='margin-top: 20px;margin-bottom: 20px;'><a title='AleaSoft - mibel log term price forecasting' href='https:\/\/aleasoft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/20251105-AleaSoft-mibel-log-term-price-forecasting-scaled.png'><img class='aligncenter' src='https:\/\/aleasoft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/20251105-AleaSoft-mibel-log-term-price-forecasting-scaled.png' alt='AleaSoft - mibel log term price forecasting' width='740'\/><\/a><span style='font-size: small;'>Source : AleaSoft Energy Forecasting<\/span><\/div>\n<h2>Un m\u00e9lange compl\u00e8tement transform\u00e9<\/h2>\n<p>Depuis 2010, la structure du syst\u00e8me \u00e9lectrique ib\u00e9rique a profond\u00e9ment chang\u00e9. En termes de production, l&rsquo;\u00e9nergie \u00e9olienne de l&rsquo;ensemble ib\u00e9rique a augment\u00e9 de 41 % en 2024 par rapport \u00e0 2010, tandis que l&rsquo;\u00e9nergie solaire photovolta\u00efque a augment\u00e9 de 664 % en 2024 par rapport au m\u00eame point de d\u00e9part. D&rsquo;ici 2025, l&rsquo;\u00e9nergie solaire photovolta\u00efque devrait atteindre 801 % par rapport \u00e0 2010.<\/p>\n<p>En termes de capacit\u00e9 install\u00e9e, l&rsquo;augmentation a \u00e9galement \u00e9t\u00e9 tr\u00e8s importante. Dans la p\u00e9ninsule ib\u00e9rique, la puissance \u00e9olienne a augment\u00e9 de 59 % en 2024 par rapport \u00e0 2010, avec une pr\u00e9vision de 69 % pour 2025. La puissance solaire photovolta\u00efque de l&rsquo;ensemble de la p\u00e9ninsule ib\u00e9rique a atteint 900 % de plus en 2024 qu&rsquo;en 2010, avec une pr\u00e9vision de 1073 % pour 2025.<\/p>\n<p>Ces chiffres montrent un changement structurel tr\u00e8s intense en mati\u00e8re de production et de puissance install\u00e9e, avec des donn\u00e9es observ\u00e9es jusqu&rsquo;en 2024 et une prolongation pr\u00e9vue jusqu&rsquo;en 2025. Malgr\u00e9 cette transformation, les pr\u00e9visions \u00e9tablies en 2010 sont rest\u00e9es coh\u00e9rentes et ont anticip\u00e9 avec pr\u00e9cision tant le niveau moyen des prix que l&rsquo;amplitude de leur variation sur l&rsquo;horizon, avec une cl\u00f4ture en octobre 2025 \u00e0 75,75 \u20ac\/MWh contre une pr\u00e9vision de 76,63 \u20ac\/MWh, soit un \u00e9cart de 1,2 %, \u00e9quivalent \u00e0 0,88 \u20ac\/MWh, et dans une bande de confiance comprise entre 64,00 et 86,07 \u20ac\/MWh.<\/p>\n<h2>L&rsquo;\u00e9quilibre du march\u00e9, base du mod\u00e8le pr\u00e9visionnel<\/h2>\n<p>La justesse des pr\u00e9visions s&rsquo;explique par l&rsquo;un des principes fondamentaux de la <strong>m\u00e9thodologie Alea<\/strong> : l&rsquo;\u00e9quilibre du march\u00e9 \u00e0 long terme. Les prix de l&rsquo;\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 ont tendance \u00e0 osciller autour du niveau qui garantit une rentabilit\u00e9 raisonnable aux producteurs et la comp\u00e9titivit\u00e9 aux consommateurs.<\/p>\n<p>Les mod\u00e8les d&rsquo;AleaSoft reproduisent naturellement ce comportement, en int\u00e9grant la variabilit\u00e9 g\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9e par des facteurs tels que la m\u00e9t\u00e9o, les prix du gaz et du CO<sub>2<\/sub> ou la disponibilit\u00e9 de la production nucl\u00e9aire. M\u00eame dans des situations extr\u00eames, telles que la crise \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique de 2022 ou la chute de la demande pendant la pand\u00e9mie de COVID-19, les prix ont fini par revenir au niveau d&rsquo;\u00e9quilibre que les mod\u00e8les avaient pr\u00e9vu quinze ans auparavant.<\/p>\n<h2>Une m\u00e9thodologie scientifiquement fond\u00e9e<\/h2>\n<p>La m\u00e9thodologie Alea repose sur une approche hybride qui combine des mod\u00e8les statistiques et \u00e9conom\u00e9triques avec des techniques avanc\u00e9es d&rsquo;<strong>intelligence artificielle<\/strong>. Parmi les outils utilis\u00e9s, on peut citer les mod\u00e8les Box-Jenkins, SARIMAX, la r\u00e9gression multivari\u00e9e et les r\u00e9seaux neuronaux r\u00e9currents, capables de traiter des relations temporelles complexes et de corriger les \u00e9carts pass\u00e9s afin d&rsquo;am\u00e9liorer la pr\u00e9cision future.<\/p>\n<p>Gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 cette combinaison de techniques, AleaSoft a d\u00e9velopp\u00e9 des mod\u00e8les qui int\u00e8grent le comportement probabiliste des march\u00e9s et leur nature stochastique, s&rsquo;adaptant \u00e0 diff\u00e9rentes \u00e9chelles temporelles. Cette approche a permis aux pr\u00e9visions \u00e0 long terme de rester coh\u00e9rentes et stables, m\u00eame en p\u00e9riode de forte volatilit\u00e9.<\/p>\n<h2>Une r\u00e9ussite dans l&rsquo;histoire de la pr\u00e9vision \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique<\/h2>\n<p>La r\u00e9alisation des pr\u00e9visions pour la p\u00e9riode 2010-2025 repr\u00e9sente une avanc\u00e9e m\u00e9thodologique majeure et une r\u00e9ussite dans le domaine de la <strong>mod\u00e9lisation<\/strong> des prix de l&rsquo;\u00e9lectricit\u00e9. Pour le secteur de l&rsquo;\u00e9nergie, disposer de pr\u00e9visions \u00e0 long terme v\u00e9rifi\u00e9es empiriquement constitue un outil essentiel pour la planification des investissements, l&rsquo;\u00e9valuation des actifs et le <strong>financement de projets renouvelables<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Cette exp\u00e9rience confirme la validit\u00e9 de l&rsquo;approche scientifique d&rsquo;AleaSoft et son engagement \u00e0 offrir une vision coh\u00e9rente et fond\u00e9e de l&rsquo;avenir du secteur \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique europ\u00e9en. Quinze ans apr\u00e8s cette pr\u00e9vision, les donn\u00e9es montrent que l&rsquo;\u00e9quilibre du march\u00e9 reste constant et que la m\u00e9thodologie Alea continue de fournir une base solide pour la prise de d\u00e9cisions strat\u00e9giques.<\/p>\n<p>Question finale : le prix d&rsquo;octobre aurait-il \u00e9t\u00e9 celui pr\u00e9vu il y a 15 ans sans la pand\u00e9mie de COVID, la guerre en Ukraine, l&rsquo;explosion du photovolta\u00efque, ou s&rsquo;il y avait eu plus de capacit\u00e9 de stockage avec des batteries ?<\/p>\n<p>Source: <strong>AleaSoft Energy Forecasting<\/strong>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, 5 novembre 2025. En octobre 2025, l&rsquo;horizon des pr\u00e9visions de prix \u00e0 long terme \u00e9labor\u00e9es par AleaSoft Energy Forecasting en novembre 2010 pour le march\u00e9 \u00e9lectrique ib\u00e9rique a \u00e9t\u00e9 atteint. Quinze ans plus tard, le r\u00e9sultat confirme la fiabilit\u00e9 de la m\u00e9thodologie de l&rsquo;entreprise et sa capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 anticiper l&rsquo;\u00e9volution des march\u00e9s [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":161872,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[30,7547],"tags":[7575,7578,7577,7580,7579,7581,7576],"class_list":["post-161889","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nouvelles","category-opinion","tag-demande","tag-marches","tag-photovoltaique","tag-prix-brent","tag-prix-co2","tag-prix-gaz","tag-vent"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Les pr\u00e9visions pour 2010 arrivent \u00e0 leur terme avec une pr\u00e9cision extraordinaire. - AleaSoft Energy 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