{"id":162246,"date":"2025-11-14T11:46:15","date_gmt":"2025-11-14T10:46:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aleasoft.com\/?p=162246"},"modified":"2025-11-17T05:01:26","modified_gmt":"2025-11-17T04:01:26","slug":"evolution-systeme-electrique-arrivee-energies-renouvelables","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aleasoft.com\/fr\/evolution-systeme-electrique-arrivee-energies-renouvelables\/","title":{"rendered":"Le syst\u00e8me \u00e9lectrique en pleine \u00e9volution : l’arriv\u00e9e des \u00e9nergies renouvelables"},"content":{"rendered":"

AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, 14 novembre 2025. L’un des changements les plus importants dans le secteur \u00e9lectrique au cours des derni\u00e8res d\u00e9cennies a \u00e9t\u00e9 l’irruption des \u00e9nergies renouvelables. Ces sources propres ont transform\u00e9 la mani\u00e8re dont l’\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 est produite, modifiant le mix \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique et obligeant \u00e0 adapter tant le march\u00e9 que le r\u00e9seau \u00e9lectrique.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Premi\u00e8re \u00e9tape : l’impulsion publique et les incitations<\/h2>\n

Au cours des ann\u00e9es 2000, de nombreux pays europ\u00e9ens, dont l’Espagne et l’Allemagne, ont commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 promouvoir l’installation d’\u00e9nergies renouvelables telles que l’\u00e9nergie \u00e9olienne et l’\u00e9nergie solaire. L’objectif \u00e9tait de r\u00e9duire les \u00e9missions de CO2<\/sub><\/strong>, de diminuer la d\u00e9pendance vis-\u00e0-vis des combustibles fossiles<\/strong> import\u00e9s et de respecter les engagements internationaux en mati\u00e8re d’environnement.<\/p>\n

Pour rendre viables ces technologies, qui \u00e9taient alors co\u00fbteuses, les gouvernements ont mis en place des syst\u00e8mes de soutien tels que des primes \u00e0 la production qui ajoutent une incitation au prix du march\u00e9, des tarifs r\u00e9glement\u00e9s (feed-in tariffs<\/strong>) qui garantissaient un prix fixe par MWh pendant plusieurs ann\u00e9es, des subventions \u00e0 l’investissement pour soutenir la cr\u00e9ation et le d\u00e9veloppement de nouvelles centrales ou des ench\u00e8res de capacit\u00e9 renouvelable<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

\u00c9nergie \u00e9olienne : la premi\u00e8re \u00e0 d\u00e9coller<\/h2>\n

L’\u00e9nergie \u00e9olienne a \u00e9t\u00e9 la premi\u00e8re source d’\u00e9nergie renouvelable \u00e0 conna\u00eetre un d\u00e9veloppement significatif \u00e0 grande \u00e9chelle. Gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 sa maturit\u00e9 technologique, \u00e0 son co\u00fbt inf\u00e9rieur \u00e0 celui des autres \u00e9nergies renouvelables et \u00e0 la grande disponibilit\u00e9 de cette ressource dans certaines r\u00e9gions, des milliers d’\u00e9oliennes ont \u00e9t\u00e9 install\u00e9es en Europe.<\/p>\n

L’Espagne est devenue l’un des leaders mondiaux en mati\u00e8re de puissance \u00e9olienne install\u00e9e, aux c\u00f4t\u00e9s de l’Allemagne, du Danemark et des \u00c9tats-Unis. Les grandes plaines, les zones montagneuses et les parcs c\u00f4tiers offraient des conditions id\u00e9ales pour cette source d’\u00e9nergie propre.<\/p>\n

La r\u00e9volution solaire photovolta\u00efque<\/h2>\n

L’\u00e9nergie solaire photovolta\u00efque \u00e9tait initialement plus co\u00fbteuse, mais son \u00e9volution technologique a \u00e9t\u00e9 spectaculaire. Gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 l’augmentation de la production mondiale, notamment en Chine, et \u00e0 l’am\u00e9lioration de l’efficacit\u00e9 des panneaux, son co\u00fbt a diminu\u00e9 de plus de 80 % depuis 2010.<\/p>\n

Cela a permis son d\u00e9ploiement massif tant \u00e0 grande \u00e9chelle dans les centrales solaires qu’\u00e0 petite \u00e9chelle dans les installations d’autoconsommation sur les toits. Aujourd’hui, c’est l’une des technologies les plus comp\u00e9titives du march\u00e9.<\/p>\n

AleaSoft - Spanish renewable installed capacity 2025<\/a>*Donn\u00e9es au 14\/11\/2025. Source : Pr\u00e9par\u00e9 par AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.<\/span><\/div>\n

Nouveaux mod\u00e8les : autoconsommation et communaut\u00e9s \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques<\/h2>\n

La r\u00e9duction des co\u00fbts et les avanc\u00e9es r\u00e9glementaires ont ouvert la voie \u00e0 de nouveaux mod\u00e8les \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques<\/a>. L’autoconsommation permet aux foyers et aux entreprises de produire leur propre \u00e9lectricit\u00e9 \u00e0 l’aide de panneaux solaires. De plus, gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 l’autoconsommation partag\u00e9e, plusieurs logements ou entreprises peuvent b\u00e9n\u00e9ficier d’une m\u00eame installation.<\/p>\n

Des communaut\u00e9s \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques<\/strong> ont \u00e9galement vu le jour, permettant \u00e0 des groupes de citoyens de participer collectivement \u00e0 la production, au stockage et \u00e0 la gestion d’\u00e9nergies renouvelables. Cela d\u00e9mocratise l’acc\u00e8s \u00e0 l’\u00e9nergie propre et renforce le tissu social et \u00e9conomique local.<\/p>\n

Int\u00e9gration dans le march\u00e9 de l’\u00e9lectricit\u00e9<\/h2>\n

Au d\u00e9part, les \u00e9nergies renouvelables ne participaient pas directement au march\u00e9 de l’\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, car elles b\u00e9n\u00e9ficiaient de tarifs fixes garantis. Cependant, avec le temps et la r\u00e9duction des co\u00fbts, les nouvelles installations ont commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 concurrencer les autres technologies sur le march\u00e9 dans des conditions d’\u00e9galit\u00e9.<\/p>\n

De plus, de nombreux projets sont financ\u00e9s par des PPA<\/strong> (Power Purchase Agreements<\/a>), des contrats \u00e0 long terme qui apportent de la stabilit\u00e9 aux producteurs et aux investisseurs. Les \u00e9nergies renouvelables ne sont plus une exception ; elles sont au c\u0153ur du syst\u00e8me \u00e9lectrique actuel et futur.<\/p>\n

D\u00e9fis techniques et de gestion<\/h2>\n

M\u00eame si c’est un objectif des communaut\u00e9s internationales, la croissance des \u00e9nergies renouvelables s’accompagne de d\u00e9fis importants. Dans la production d’\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, ces \u00e9nergies sont variables et intermittentes, car la disponibilit\u00e9 de l’\u00e9nergie solaire ou \u00e9olienne n’est pas contr\u00f4lable. C’est pourquoi plus la production d’\u00e9nergies renouvelables est importante, plus le stockage d’\u00e9nergie<\/strong> devient n\u00e9cessaire, comme les batteries<\/strong> ou le pompage hydraulique<\/strong>, afin de pouvoir r\u00e9utiliser l’\u00e9nergie exc\u00e9dentaire produite pendant les pics de production \u00e0 des heures o\u00f9 la production est moindre.<\/p>\n

De plus, en rendant les autoconsommateurs et les communaut\u00e9s \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques actifs sur le march\u00e9 de l’\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, il est n\u00e9cessaire de renforcer les r\u00e9seaux \u00e9lectriques<\/strong> afin d’int\u00e9grer une plus grande distribution de la production<\/a> et la num\u00e9risation du syst\u00e8me<\/strong> afin de pouvoir mettre en \u0153uvre une gestion plus avanc\u00e9e<\/a> et plus pr\u00e9cise de la demande. Il est essentiel de relever ces d\u00e9fis pour parvenir \u00e0 un syst\u00e8me 100 % renouvelable, fiable et s\u00fbr.<\/p>\n

Cette publication est le troisi\u00e8me volet d’une s\u00e9rie consacr\u00e9e aux principales \u00e9tapes du syst\u00e8me \u00e9lectrique et \u00e0 ses perspectives pour les ann\u00e9es \u00e0 venir, intitul\u00e9e \u00ab Le syst\u00e8me \u00e9lectrique en pleine \u00e9volution<\/a> \u00bb. L’objectif est d’offrir une vue d’ensemble actualis\u00e9e et structur\u00e9e du pr\u00e9sent et de l’avenir du syst\u00e8me \u00e9lectrique europ\u00e9en.<\/p>\n

Pr\u00e9visions et analyses d’AleaSoft Energy Forecasting pour les projets renouvelables et de stockage<\/h2>\n

AleaSoft Energy Forecasting<\/strong>, par l’interm\u00e9diaire de sa division AleaGreen<\/strong>, fournit des pr\u00e9visions \u00e0 long terme<\/a>, essentielles pour le financement de projets d’\u00e9nergies renouvelables<\/strong> et la signature de contrats PPA, l’\u00e9valuation d’actifs<\/strong> et l’\u00e9laboration de strat\u00e9gies de couverture. Parmi les services propos\u00e9s par AleaGreen figurent les pr\u00e9visions de production<\/a> pour diff\u00e9rents types de centrales renouvelables, accompagn\u00e9es des pr\u00e9visions de prix<\/a> correspondantes, ainsi que les pr\u00e9visions de garanties d’origine<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n

De plus, la division AleaStorage<\/strong> analyse la viabilit\u00e9 des projets de stockage \u00e0 l’aide de batteries<\/strong><\/a>, tant en mode autonome<\/strong> qu’en mode hybride<\/strong> avec des centrales renouvelables, en estimant leurs revenus et leur rentabilit\u00e9 \u00e0 long terme, en optimisant leur fonctionnement et en fournissant des analyses personnalis\u00e9es pour diff\u00e9rents mod\u00e8les commerciaux.<\/p>\n

Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, 14 novembre 2025. L’un des changements les plus importants dans le secteur \u00e9lectrique au cours des derni\u00e8res d\u00e9cennies a \u00e9t\u00e9 l’irruption des \u00e9nergies renouvelables. Ces sources propres ont transform\u00e9 la mani\u00e8re dont l’\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 est produite, modifiant le mix \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique et obligeant \u00e0 adapter tant le march\u00e9 que le r\u00e9seau \u00e9lectrique. 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