{"id":165638,"date":"2026-03-16T10:04:46","date_gmt":"2026-03-16T09:04:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aleasoft.com\/?p=165638"},"modified":"2026-04-01T03:49:44","modified_gmt":"2026-04-01T01:49:44","slug":"precipitations-marche-electricite-prix","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aleasoft.com\/fr\/precipitations-marche-electricite-prix\/","title":{"rendered":"Des pr\u00e9cipitations au march\u00e9 de l’\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 : comment le cycle hydrologique en Espagne influence les prix de l’\u00e9lectricit\u00e9"},"content":{"rendered":"

AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, 16 mars 2026. Les fortes pluies hivernales qui se sont abattues sur l’Espagne ont fait monter le niveau des r\u00e9servoirs hydro\u00e9lectriques au d\u00e9but de l’ann\u00e9e 2026, le portant \u00e0 50 % au-dessus de la moyenne des dix derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es. Les barrages hydro\u00e9lectriques faisant office de syst\u00e8mes de stockage d’\u00e9nergie \u00e0 grande \u00e9chelle, l’abondance d’eau permet \u00e0 la production hydro\u00e9lectrique de couvrir une plus grande partie de la demande en \u00e9lectricit\u00e9, r\u00e9duisant ainsi la d\u00e9pendance aux combustibles fossiles. En cons\u00e9quence, les conditions hydrologiques influencent de mani\u00e8re d\u00e9cisive la formation du prix de l’\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, affectant les d\u00e9cisions de dispatching et les strat\u00e9gies de stockage.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Les barrages hydro\u00e9lectriques en Espagne<\/h2>\n

Les fortes pluies de l’hiver en Espagne ont consid\u00e9rablement fait monter les niveaux des r\u00e9servoirs hydro\u00e9lectriques<\/strong>. Au cours des premiers mois de 2026, les r\u00e9serves se situent bien au-dessus de la moyenne des dix derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, la d\u00e9passant de 50 % \u00e0 la mi-f\u00e9vrier. Cette situation est exactement \u00e0 l’oppos\u00e9 de celle observ\u00e9e fin 2022, lorsque les niveaux des r\u00e9serves d’eau se situaient environ 28 % en dessous de la moyenne des dix derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es en raison d’une s\u00e9cheresse prolong\u00e9e.<\/p>\n

AleaSoft - hydro reserves Spain<\/a>Source: MITECO.<\/span><\/div>
\nLes r\u00e9servoirs hydro\u00e9lectriques font office de syst\u00e8mes de stockage d’\u00e9nergie<\/strong> \u00e0 grande \u00e9chelle. Chaque m\u00e8tre cube d’eau stock\u00e9 derri\u00e8re un barrage repr\u00e9sente une \u00e9nergie potentielle gravitaire qui peut \u00eatre convertie en \u00e9lectricit\u00e9. Dans le r\u00e9seau \u00e9lectrique espagnol, qui dispose d’une capacit\u00e9 hydro\u00e9lectrique d’environ 20 GW, dont 3 GW de capacit\u00e9 de pompage, et qui pr\u00e9sente une forte p\u00e9n\u00e9tration des \u00e9nergies renouvelables<\/strong>, cette flexibilit\u00e9 joue un r\u00f4le essentiel.<\/p>\n

Impact de l’\u00e9nergie hydro\u00e9lectrique sur les prix du march\u00e9 de l’\u00e9lectricit\u00e9<\/h2>\n

L’Espagne participant au march\u00e9 de gros ib\u00e9rique de l’\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 (MIBEL), g\u00e9r\u00e9 par l’OMIE, qui suit le mod\u00e8le de fixation marginale des prix<\/strong>, c’est la derni\u00e8re centrale n\u00e9cessaire pour couvrir la demande qui d\u00e9termine le prix. En pratique, pendant les heures de forte demande et de faible production d’\u00e9nergie renouvelable, le prix marginal est fix\u00e9 par les centrales \u00e0 cycle combin\u00e9 au gaz<\/strong>, car leur co\u00fbt d’opportunit\u00e9 est plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 par rapport au co\u00fbt marginal moindre des producteurs d’\u00e9nergie renouvelable ou des centrales hydro\u00e9lectriques.<\/p>\n

Par cons\u00e9quent, pendant les p\u00e9riodes de p\u00e9nurie d’eau, lorsque l’\u00e9nergie hydro\u00e9lectrique n’est pas disponible, le d\u00e9ficit thermique<\/strong> doit \u00eatre combl\u00e9 par des combustibles fossiles<\/strong>, ce qui fait grimper les prix. \u00c0 l’inverse, pendant les saisons des pluies abondantes, l’\u00e9nergie hydro\u00e9lectrique peut couvrir une part importante de la demande et exercer une pression \u00e0 la baisse sur les prix.<\/p>\n

AleaSoft - electricity market price hydro energy<\/a>Source : \u00c9labor\u00e9 par AleaSoft \u00e0 partir des donn\u00e9es fournies par Red El\u00e9ctrica et OMIE.<\/span><\/div>\n

Compte tenu de cette d\u00e9pendance, l’hydrologie n’est pas seulement une donn\u00e9e environnementale. C’est un indicateur \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique tourn\u00e9 vers l’avenir. Elle conditionne les d\u00e9cisions de r\u00e9gulation \u00e0 court terme, l’optimisation du stockage \u00e0 moyen terme et la dynamique des prix. Les niveaux des r\u00e9servoirs influencent les ajustements<\/strong>, les sch\u00e9mas de volatilit\u00e9, les \u00e9carts aux heures de pointe et les opportunit\u00e9s sur les march\u00e9s d’\u00e9quilibrage.<\/p>\n

Pour comprendre comment les conditions hydrologiques se r\u00e9percutent sur la formation des prix, la mod\u00e9lisation avanc\u00e9e des recettes et les pr\u00e9visions de prix<\/strong> deviennent indispensables.<\/p>\n

Analyses et pr\u00e9visions d’AleaSoft Energy Forecasting pour les projets d’\u00e9nergies renouvelables et de stockage<\/h2>\n

Par l’interm\u00e9diaire de sa division AleaGreen<\/strong>, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting<\/strong> fournit des pr\u00e9visions \u00e0 long terme<\/a>, indispensables au financement de projets d’\u00e9nergies renouvelables<\/strong>, \u00e0 la n\u00e9gociation de PPA<\/strong>, \u00e0 l’\u00e9valuation d’actifs et \u00e0 l’\u00e9laboration de strat\u00e9gies de couverture. Parmi les services propos\u00e9s par AleaGreen figurent les pr\u00e9visions de production pour diff\u00e9rents types de centrales d’\u00e9nergies renouvelables, accompagn\u00e9es des pr\u00e9visions de prix correspondantes, ainsi que des pr\u00e9visions de garanties d’origine<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

De plus, la division AleaWhite<\/strong> fournit des informations actualis\u00e9es sur le secteur de l’\u00e9nergie via la plateforme Alea Energy DataBase<\/strong>. Outre les derniers chiffres, la plateforme<\/a> propose des outils d’analyse et de visualisation des donn\u00e9es.<\/p>\n

Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, 16 mars 2026. Les fortes pluies hivernales qui se sont abattues sur l’Espagne ont fait monter le niveau des r\u00e9servoirs hydro\u00e9lectriques au d\u00e9but de l’ann\u00e9e 2026, le portant \u00e0 50 % au-dessus de la moyenne des dix derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es. Les barrages hydro\u00e9lectriques faisant office de syst\u00e8mes de stockage d’\u00e9nergie \u00e0 grande \u00e9chelle, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":165272,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[30,7547],"tags":[7575,7578,7631,7581,7552],"class_list":["post-165638","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nouvelles","category-opinion","tag-demande","tag-marches","tag-ppa-2","tag-prix-gaz","tag-stockage-energie"],"yoast_head":"\nComment la pluie en Espagne influence les prix<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Les fortes pluies hivernales en Espagne ont fait grimper le niveau des r\u00e9servoirs hydro\u00e9lectriques au d\u00e9but de l'ann\u00e9e 2026, le portant \u00e0 50 % au-dessus de la moyenne des dix derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, 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