{"id":171932,"date":"2026-09-22T18:05:54","date_gmt":"2026-09-22T16:05:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aleasoft.com\/?p=171932"},"modified":"2026-09-23T11:41:02","modified_gmt":"2026-09-23T09:41:02","slug":"stockage-depasse-photovoltaique-europe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aleasoft.com\/fr\/stockage-depasse-photovoltaique-europe\/","title":{"rendered":"Le stockage pourrait d\u00e9passer la croissance du photovolta\u00efque en 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, 22 septembre 2026. Le stockage d’\u00e9nergie entre dans une nouvelle phase de croissance \u00e0 l’\u00e9chelle mondiale et europ\u00e9enne. S&P Global Energy pr\u00e9voit que l’Europe installera plus de 30 GW de syst\u00e8mes de stockage par batteries en 2026, soit pr\u00e8s du double du chiffre de 2025, tandis que le rythme des nouvelles installations photovolta\u00efques se mod\u00e8re. Ces perspectives, ainsi que le r\u00f4le de l’autoconsommation, ont marqu\u00e9 l’analyse du dernier webinaire d’AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Le stockage pourrait cro\u00eetre plus que l’\u00e9nergie photovolta\u00efque et l’\u00e9nergie \u00e9olienne en 2026<\/h2>\n

Le 17 septembre, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting<\/strong> a tenu son 69e<\/sup> webinaire mensuel<\/a>, consacr\u00e9 \u00e0 l’\u00e9volution des march\u00e9s de l’\u00e9nergie<\/strong> europ\u00e9ens et aux opportunit\u00e9s pour le stockage d’\u00e9nergie<\/strong> et l’autoconsommation<\/strong>. La session a r\u00e9uni Josefin Berg, Associate Director of Renewables Markets chez S&P Global Energy, et Oriol Salt\u00f3 i Bauz\u00e0, Associate Partner chez AleaSoft. La table d’analyse, tenue en espagnol, a \u00e9galement compt\u00e9 sur la participation de Francisco Valverde, professionnel ind\u00e9pendant sp\u00e9cialis\u00e9 dans le d\u00e9veloppement des \u00e9nergies renouvelables<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Selon les pr\u00e9visions pr\u00e9sent\u00e9es par S&P Global Energy, la capacit\u00e9 de stockage install\u00e9e chaque ann\u00e9e dans le monde augmentera d’environ 67% entre 2025 et 2030. L’Asie-Pacifique, tir\u00e9e par la Chine, restera la premi\u00e8re r\u00e9gion en volume, m\u00eame si l’Europe et les autres march\u00e9s hors Asie-Pacifique et Am\u00e9rique du Nord enregistreront la plus forte croissance en pourcentage sur la p\u00e9riode.<\/p>\n

Ce changement intervient apr\u00e8s plusieurs ann\u00e9es de forte expansion de l’\u00e9nergie photovolta\u00efque<\/strong>. En 2026, la mod\u00e9ration attendue des nouvelles installations solaires en Chine affecte la croissance mondiale de cette technologie, tandis que le stockage se d\u00e9veloppe dans un nombre croissant de march\u00e9s. Selon les pr\u00e9visions de S&P Global Energy, le stockage d\u00e9passera la croissance du photovolta\u00efque et de l’\u00e9olien en 2026.<\/p>\n

AleaSoft - installations annuelles mondiales<\/a><\/div>\n

Des mod\u00e8les de d\u00e9veloppement divergents, des ench\u00e8res au march\u00e9 merchant<\/h2>\n

Selon les donn\u00e9es pr\u00e9sent\u00e9es par S&P Global Energy, les installations annuelles de batteries en Europe d\u00e9passeront 30 GW en 2026, soit pratiquement le double du chiffre de 2025, port\u00e9es avant tout par l’Allemagne, le Royaume-Uni, l’Italie, l’Espagne et les Pays-Bas, qui figurent parmi les principaux march\u00e9s de l’\u00e9lectricit\u00e9<\/strong> pour le stockage par batteries. Cependant, les mod\u00e8les de d\u00e9veloppement diff\u00e8rent fortement d’un pays \u00e0 l’autre. Dans le segment front-of-the-meter (FTM), la Bulgarie, la Pologne et l’Italie affichent le poids le plus important des ench\u00e8res, des m\u00e9canismes de soutien et des revenus contract\u00e9s, tandis que l’Allemagne se distingue par une approche largement merchant, avec des contrats priv\u00e9s tels que les tolling agreements.<\/p>\n

AleaSoft - installations annuelles bess europe<\/a><\/div>\n

La croissance du march\u00e9 des batteries<\/strong> continue \u00e9galement de d\u00e9pendre de l’\u00e9volution de leurs co\u00fbts. Le prix du carbonate de lithium a augment\u00e9 de 92% au cours de l’ann\u00e9e \u00e9coul\u00e9e et subit une pression suppl\u00e9mentaire li\u00e9e aux perturbations de la cha\u00eene d’approvisionnement, mais S&P Global Energy souligne que son impact sur le CAPEX d’une batterie de quatre heures est limit\u00e9. L’innovation dans les cellules, les blocs DC et l’int\u00e9gration des syst\u00e8mes compense en partie la hausse des prix, de sorte que les co\u00fbts des batteries restent relativement stables.<\/p>\n

L’Espagne, \u00e0 une \u00e9tape d\u00e9cisive pour le stockage<\/h2>\n

En Espagne, S&P Global Energy pr\u00e9voit une acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration des installations front-of-the-meter, principalement par hybridation avec le photovolta\u00efque<\/strong>, avec un pic de nouvelles installations en 2027-2028. Le d\u00e9cret-loi royal 7\/2026 accorde aux projets de stockage le statut d’utilit\u00e9 publique, simplifie les d\u00e9marches administratives, am\u00e9liore la transparence de l’acc\u00e8s au r\u00e9seau, cr\u00e9e des zones d’acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration des \u00e9nergies renouvelables et \u00e9tend l’autoconsommation<\/strong> \u00e9lectrique collective, dans un contexte o\u00f9 le black-out d’avril 2025 a r\u00e9v\u00e9l\u00e9 des lacunes en mati\u00e8re d’inertie et de contr\u00f4le de la tension sur le r\u00e9seau qui stimulent l’int\u00e9r\u00eat pour le stockage.<\/p>\n

Les \u00e9volutions ult\u00e9rieures seront conditionn\u00e9es par des facteurs tels que l’acc\u00e8s au r\u00e9seau, o\u00f9 une concurrence intense pour les points de raccordement persiste malgr\u00e9 le nouveau cadre d’acc\u00e8s flexible de la CNMC et les zones d’acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration des \u00e9nergies renouvelables, et les conditions de d\u00e9veloppement des projets stand-alone, qui ne b\u00e9n\u00e9ficient pas actuellement de la priorit\u00e9 d’appel des projets hybrides. La mise en \u0153uvre du march\u00e9 de capacit\u00e9<\/strong>, avec jusqu’\u00e0 9 milliards d’euros pour la p\u00e9riode 2026-2036, offrira aux batteries une source suppl\u00e9mentaire de revenus stables qui contribuera \u00e0 r\u00e9duire l’incertitude et \u00e0 soutenir le financement<\/a> des projets.<\/p>\n

L’essor de l’autoconsommation et du stockage r\u00e9sidentiel<\/h2>\n

L’autoconsommation<\/strong> \u00e9lectrique est un autre des facteurs qui transforment la courbe de la demande d’\u00e9lectricit\u00e9<\/strong> en Espagne. La production solaire behind-the-meter r\u00e9duit la demande visible pour le syst\u00e8me pendant les heures centrales de la journ\u00e9e, un effet d\u00e9j\u00e0 perceptible dans le profil horaire de la demande des mois d’\u00e9t\u00e9.<\/p>\n

AleaSoft - profil demande ete<\/a>Source : \u00c9labor\u00e9 par AleaSoft Energy Forecasting \u00e0 partir de donn\u00e9es de Red El\u00e9ctrica.<\/span><\/div>\n

Plus de 2 GW de stockage behind-the-meter ont d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e9t\u00e9 install\u00e9s en Espagne. Alors que les nouvelles installations photovolta\u00efques r\u00e9sidentielles se mod\u00e8rent apr\u00e8s le pic de 2022, les batteries r\u00e9sidentielles connaissent une expansion rapide depuis avril 2025. Parall\u00e8lement, un nouveau segment de stockage behind-the-meter li\u00e9 aux centres de donn\u00e9es<\/strong> a \u00e9merg\u00e9. L’agr\u00e9gation d’actifs distribu\u00e9s dans des mod\u00e8les de centrale \u00e9lectrique virtuelle (VPP), soutenue par les communaut\u00e9s \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques, s’impose comme la principale opportunit\u00e9 de croissance encore \u00e0 d\u00e9velopper pour le stockage behind-the-meter.<\/p>\n

Le stockage, cl\u00e9 de la prochaine phase de la transition \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique<\/h2>\n

L’Espagne entre dans une \u00e9tape d\u00e9cisive pour le d\u00e9veloppement du stockage. Le volume \u00e9lev\u00e9 de projets actuellement en cours d’instruction doit d\u00e9sormais se traduire par des installations r\u00e9elles, dans un contexte o\u00f9 le march\u00e9 de capacit\u00e9, l’acc\u00e8s au r\u00e9seau et l’hybridation avec les renouvelables d\u00e9termineront quels projets obtiendront un financement. Au niveau europ\u00e9en, la combinaison de prix plus volatils, de la pression sur les revenus du photovolta\u00efque et d’un cadre r\u00e9glementaire de plus en plus orient\u00e9 vers la flexibilit\u00e9 continuera de stimuler les installations de batteries au cours des prochaines ann\u00e9es.<\/p>\n

Le stockage comme levier strat\u00e9gique, le r\u00f4le d’AleaStorage<\/h2>\n

AleaStorage<\/strong>, la division d’AleaSoft Energy Forecasting<\/strong> sp\u00e9cialis\u00e9e dans le stockage d’\u00e9nergie<\/a>, r\u00e9alise des estimations de revenus des batteries<\/strong>, tant pour les projets stand-alone<\/strong> que pour les projets hybrides, sur les march\u00e9s de l’\u00e9nergie et les services d’\u00e9quilibrage, des analyses de projets d’hybridation<\/strong> avec le photovolta\u00efque<\/strong> et l’\u00e9nergie \u00e9olienne<\/strong> pour maximiser les revenus et r\u00e9duire les risques, des \u00e9valuations de revenus sur les march\u00e9s de capacit\u00e9 et des mod\u00e9lisations de sc\u00e9narios de prix et de volatilit\u00e9 \u00e0 long terme, un soutien particuli\u00e8rement pertinent dans la mesure o\u00f9 la visibilit\u00e9 des revenus d\u00e9termine aujourd’hui la bancabilit\u00e9<\/strong> des projets.<\/p>\n

Source : AleaSoft Energy Forecasting<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, 22 septembre 2026. Le stockage d’\u00e9nergie entre dans une nouvelle phase de croissance \u00e0 l’\u00e9chelle mondiale et europ\u00e9enne. S&P Global Energy pr\u00e9voit que l’Europe installera plus de 30 GW de syst\u00e8mes de stockage par batteries en 2026, soit pr\u00e8s du double du chiffre de 2025, tandis que le rythme des nouvelles installations photovolta\u00efques […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":171855,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[30,7547],"tags":[7557,7575,7645,7578,7577,7552,7576],"class_list":["post-171932","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nouvelles","category-opinion","tag-batteries-fr","tag-demande","tag-hybridation","tag-marches","tag-photovoltaique","tag-stockage-energie","tag-vent"],"yoast_head":"\nStockage d'\u00e9nergie : devancer le photovolta\u00efque en 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Le stockage d'\u00e9nergie pourrait cro\u00eetre plus que le photovolta\u00efque en 2026 : l'Europe 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