{"id":157307,"date":"2025-05-21T16:27:52","date_gmt":"2025-05-21T14:27:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aleasoft.com\/?p=157307"},"modified":"2025-05-29T04:29:15","modified_gmt":"2025-05-29T02:29:15","slug":"demanda-previsoes-geracao-renovavel-precos-mercado","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aleasoft.com\/pt\/demanda-previsoes-geracao-renovavel-precos-mercado\/","title":{"rendered":"Previs\u00e3o da demanda de eletricidade, produ\u00e7\u00e3o renov\u00e1vel e pre\u00e7os de mercado"},"content":{"rendered":"

AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, 21 de maio de 2025. Previs\u00f5es precisas e coerentes da demanda de eletricidade, da produ\u00e7\u00e3o renov\u00e1vel e dos pre\u00e7os de mercado s\u00e3o mais estrat\u00e9gicas do que nunca. Num contexto de transi\u00e7\u00e3o energ\u00e9tica, os modelos cient\u00edficos que integram estas tr\u00eas vari\u00e1veis s\u00e3o fundamentais para ajudar todos os intervenientes no sector da eletricidade a tomar decis\u00f5es informadas, otimizar as opera\u00e7\u00f5es e planear os investimentos.<\/strong><\/p>\n

No centro de qualquer estrat\u00e9gia energ\u00e9tica s\u00f3lida est\u00e3o tr\u00eas vari\u00e1veis interdependentes: a demanda de eletricidade<\/strong>, a produ\u00e7\u00e3o renov\u00e1vel<\/strong> e os pre\u00e7os do mercado da eletricidade<\/strong>. A AleaSoft Energy Forecasting<\/strong> tem vindo a aperfei\u00e7oar as previs\u00f5es destas tr\u00eas vari\u00e1veis h\u00e1 mais de 25 anos com uma abordagem cient\u00edfica e consistente, adaptada \u00e0s necessidades espec\u00edficas dos seus clientes, que incluem produtores, retalhistas, grandes consumidores, promotores, fundos de investimento, bancos e operadores de sistemas.<\/p>\n

Previs\u00f5es da demanda de eletricidade para um sistema mais flex\u00edvel, eficiente e descarbonizado<\/h2>\n

As previs\u00f5es da demanda de eletricidade<\/a> s\u00e3o essenciais para garantir o equil\u00edbrio entre a oferta e o consumo, e para evitar desequil\u00edbrios que afectem a estabilidade do sistema.<\/p>\n

A AleaSoft Energy Forecasting<\/strong> desenvolve previs\u00f5es hor\u00e1rias, di\u00e1rias e mensais da demanda de eletricidade, com um horizonte de at\u00e9 30 anos. Estas previs\u00f5es abrangem a demanda nacional e regional, bem como carteiras de clientes espec\u00edficas.<\/p>\n

Os modelos de previs\u00e3o t\u00eam em conta factores como as temperaturas<\/strong> e outras vari\u00e1veis meteorol\u00f3gicas<\/strong>, os padr\u00f5es hist\u00f3ricos de consumo, a efici\u00eancia energ\u00e9tica<\/strong>, os ciclos econ\u00f3micos e as mudan\u00e7as estruturais, como o autoconsumo<\/strong>, o armazenamento de energia<\/strong>, a eletrifica\u00e7\u00e3o<\/strong> dos transportes e as bombas de calor.<\/p>\n

Estas previs\u00f5es s\u00e3o utilizadas pelos operadores de redes de transporte (ORT) e pelos operadores de redes de distribui\u00e7\u00e3o (ORD) para o funcionamento e planeamento da rede. S\u00e3o tamb\u00e9m essenciais para os comerciantes e comercializadores na conce\u00e7\u00e3o de estrat\u00e9gias intradi\u00e1rias e de equilibra\u00e7\u00e3o, e para os grandes consumidores e produtores de eletricidade no planeamento do consumo e nos contratos bilaterais.<\/p>\n

Previs\u00f5es de produ\u00e7\u00e3o de energias renov\u00e1veis para gerir a sua variabilidade<\/h2>\n

As energias renov\u00e1veis<\/strong>, especialmente a solar fotovoltaica<\/strong> e a e\u00f3lica<\/strong>, apresentam uma elevada variabilidade devido \u00e0 sua depend\u00eancia das condi\u00e7\u00f5es climat\u00e9ricas. Esta carater\u00edstica coloca desafios ao planeamento e \u00e0 opera\u00e7\u00e3o do sistema el\u00e9trico, tornando essenciais previs\u00f5es precisas.<\/p>\n

O AleaSoft Energy Forecasting<\/strong> oferece previs\u00f5es de produ\u00e7\u00e3o renov\u00e1vel<\/a> de energia solar e e\u00f3lica, com horizontes que v\u00e3o desde o curto prazo, com resolu\u00e7\u00e3o hor\u00e1ria, at\u00e9 ao m\u00e9dio e longo prazo, com granularidade mensal e anual. Os modelos baseiam-se em dados meteorol\u00f3gicos, no comportamento hist\u00f3rico da produ\u00e7\u00e3o e no desempenho destas tecnologias, e permitem gerar previs\u00f5es \u00e0 escala nacional, regional ou espec\u00edfica de cada instala\u00e7\u00e3o, como parques solares ou e\u00f3licos.<\/p>\n

Estas previs\u00f5es s\u00e3o essenciais para que os centros de controlo, agregadores, promotores, financiadores e operadores de sistemas de armazenamento optimizem o funcionamento, avaliem a viabilidade dos projectos e melhorem a gest\u00e3o dos riscos.<\/p>\n

Previs\u00f5es de pre\u00e7os do mercado da eletricidade para fins de tomada de decis\u00e3o<\/h2>\n

Os pre\u00e7os do mercado da eletricidade resultam da intera\u00e7\u00e3o de m\u00faltiplas vari\u00e1veis: a oferta e a demanda, a disponibilidade de produ\u00e7\u00e3o renov\u00e1vel, os custos marginais das diferentes tecnologias, as restri\u00e7\u00f5es t\u00e9cnicas do sistema, o estado das interliga\u00e7\u00f5es e factores externos como os pre\u00e7os do g\u00e1s<\/strong> e os direitos de emiss\u00e3o de CO2<\/sub><\/strong>.<\/p>\n

A AleaSoft Energy Forecasting<\/strong> desenvolve previs\u00f5es de pre\u00e7os de mercado<\/a> hor\u00e1rias, di\u00e1rias e mensais cobrindo todos os horizontes, curto, m\u00e9dio e longo prazo, para os principais mercados europeus de eletricidade, bem como para outros mercados globais. Estas previs\u00f5es s\u00e3o baseadas numa metodologia pr\u00f3pria, consolidada por mais de 25 anos de experi\u00eancia e pela confian\u00e7a cont\u00ednua dos seus clientes.<\/p>\n

Estas previs\u00f5es s\u00e3o ferramentas fundamentais para operar nos mercados spot e de futuros, desenhar estrat\u00e9gias de hedging, gerir riscos, avaliar activos, negociar contratos PPA<\/strong> (Power Purchase Agreement), planear investimentos e tomar decis\u00f5es em opera\u00e7\u00f5es de M&A e financiamento banc\u00e1rio.<\/p>\n

AleaSoft - mibel long term price forecasting<\/a>Previs\u00e3o de pre\u00e7os a longo prazo para o mercado ib\u00e9rico de eletricidade MIBEL realizada no final de outubro de 2010 pela AleaSoft.
\nFonte: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.<\/span><\/div>\n

Previs\u00e3o integrada para impulsionar a transi\u00e7\u00e3o energ\u00e9tica<\/h2>\n

Um dos principais valores acrescentados do AleaSoft Energy Forecasting<\/strong> \u00e9 a integra\u00e7\u00e3o coerente entre as tr\u00eas vari\u00e1veis: demanda de eletricidade, produ\u00e7\u00e3o renov\u00e1vel e pre\u00e7os de mercado. Esta integra\u00e7\u00e3o permite representar o comportamento do mercado de eletricidade e fornecer previs\u00f5es consistentes em todos os horizontes temporais.<\/p>\n

No contexto atual, marcado pela acelera\u00e7\u00e3o do desenvolvimento das energias renov\u00e1veis e dos sistemas de armazenamento, destacam-se os estudos<\/a> de estrutura\u00e7\u00e3o de CAE e de an\u00e1lise de financiamento banc\u00e1rio oferecidos pelo AleaGreen<\/strong> e os estudos<\/a> de receitas para projectos de baterias e sistemas h\u00edbridos desenvolvidos pelo AleaStorage<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

A previs\u00e3o como ferramenta estrat\u00e9gica no sector da energia<\/h2>\n

A previs\u00e3o para o sector da energia \u00e9 uma necessidade estrat\u00e9gica no contexto atual. AleaSoft Energy Forecasting<\/strong> ajuda os seus clientes a tomar decis\u00f5es informadas, com previs\u00f5es fi\u00e1veis, consistentes e cientificamente fundamentadas, adaptadas a cada um dos actores do sector da energia.<\/p>\n

AleaSoft Energy Forecasting an\u00e1lise dos mercados energ\u00e9ticos<\/h2>\n

A plataforma online<\/a> Alea Energy Database<\/strong> compila informa\u00e7\u00e3o do mercado energ\u00e9tico de forma estruturada e incorpora ferramentas de an\u00e1lise e visualiza\u00e7\u00e3o de dados. Em poucos segundos, permite aceder a informa\u00e7\u00e3o hist\u00f3rica e actualizada sobre as vari\u00e1veis de um mercado, num \u00fanico ambiente, com um formato homog\u00e9neo e permanentemente atualizado.<\/p>\n

O Alea Energy DataBase<\/strong> facilita a extra\u00e7\u00e3o de conhecimento e a gera\u00e7\u00e3o de intelig\u00eancia de mercado, contribuindo para a digitaliza\u00e7\u00e3o<\/strong> das empresas do sector. \u00c9 uma ferramenta fundamental para tomar decis\u00f5es informadas, operar nos mercados, negociar e fazer hedging, identificar oportunidades de neg\u00f3cio, avaliar custos antes das liquida\u00e7\u00f5es e alimentar modelos, algoritmos e publica\u00e7\u00f5es com dados fi\u00e1veis.<\/p>\n

Fonte: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting<\/strong>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, 21 de maio de 2025. Previs\u00f5es precisas e coerentes da demanda de eletricidade, da produ\u00e7\u00e3o renov\u00e1vel e dos pre\u00e7os de mercado s\u00e3o mais estrat\u00e9gicas do que nunca. Num contexto de transi\u00e7\u00e3o energ\u00e9tica, os modelos cient\u00edficos que integram estas tr\u00eas vari\u00e1veis s\u00e3o fundamentais para ajudar todos os intervenientes no sector da eletricidade a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":157073,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7514,7550],"tags":[7555,7560,7602,7599],"class_list":["post-157307","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-noticias","category-opiniao","tag-armazenamento-energia","tag-baterias","tag-demanda-eletrica","tag-mercados-eletricos-europeus"],"yoast_head":"\nPrevis\u00e3o da demanda de eletricidade, produ\u00e7\u00e3o renov\u00e1vel e pre\u00e7os de mercado - AleaSoft Energy Forecasting<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Previs\u00f5es precisas e consistentes da demanda de eletricidade, da produ\u00e7\u00e3o renov\u00e1vel e dos pre\u00e7os de mercado s\u00e3o mais estrat\u00e9gicas do que nunca.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/aleasoft.com\/demanda-previsoes-geracao-renovavel-precos-mercado\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_PT\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Previs\u00e3o da demanda de eletricidade, produ\u00e7\u00e3o renov\u00e1vel e pre\u00e7os de mercado\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Previs\u00f5es precisas e consistentes da demanda de eletricidade, da produ\u00e7\u00e3o renov\u00e1vel e dos pre\u00e7os de mercado s\u00e3o mais estrat\u00e9gicas do que nunca.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/aleasoft.com\/demanda-previsoes-geracao-renovavel-precos-mercado\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"AleaSoft Energy Forecasting\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/AleaSoft\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-05-21T14:27:52+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-05-29T02:29:15+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/aleasoft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/20250521-AleaSoft-mibel-long-term-price-forecasting-scaled.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2048\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1119\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"AleaSoft Energy Forecasting\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@AleaSoftEnergy\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@AleaSoftEnergy\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Escrito por\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"AleaSoft Energy Forecasting\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Tempo estimado de leitura\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutos\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aleasoft.com\\\/demanda-previsoes-geracao-renovavel-precos-mercado\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aleasoft.com\\\/pt\\\/demanda-previsoes-geracao-renovavel-precos-mercado\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"AleaSoft Energy Forecasting\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aleasoft.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/e83ba5c714f71473e3096e6f5bffcd61\"},\"headline\":\"Previs\u00e3o da demanda de eletricidade, produ\u00e7\u00e3o renov\u00e1vel e pre\u00e7os de mercado\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-05-21T14:27:52+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-05-29T02:29:15+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aleasoft.com\\\/pt\\\/demanda-previsoes-geracao-renovavel-precos-mercado\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1108,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aleasoft.com\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aleasoft.com\\\/demanda-previsoes-geracao-renovavel-precos-mercado\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aleasoft.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/05\\\/20250521-AleaSoft-mibel-long-term-price-forecasting-scaled.png\",\"keywords\":[\"Armazenamento energia\",\"Baterias\",\"Demanda\",\"Mercados\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Not\u00edcias\",\"Opini\u00e3o\"],\"inLanguage\":\"pt-PT\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aleasoft.com\\\/pt\\\/demanda-previsoes-geracao-renovavel-precos-mercado\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aleasoft.com\\\/demanda-previsoes-geracao-renovavel-precos-mercado\\\/\",\"name\":\"Previs\u00e3o da demanda de eletricidade, produ\u00e7\u00e3o renov\u00e1vel e pre\u00e7os de mercado - 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