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Prospects for energy markets in Europe. Methodology for long-term forecasting, keys to the energy transition and renewable energy projects financing

July 13, 2023 | 10:00 - 11:00 CET


Oriol Saltó i Bauzà
Associate Partner at AleaGreen


  • Evolution and prospects of European energy markets
  • Long‑term electricity markets price curves forecasting methodologies: market balance and probabilistic metrics
  • Energy transition: a complex mechanism
  • Analysis of the draft update of the Spanish NECP
  • Financing of renewable energy projects

Although the evolution of European energy markets in the first half of 2023 has been more stable than expected when the year began, with market prices with a downward trend, it is still essential the need to boost the development of renewable energies on the European continent, to continue advancing in the energy transition and to reduce the energy dependence from abroad.

Energy price curves forecasts are necessary in practically all areas of the energy sector and for all actors that participate in it. Project finance, PPA, M&A, asset valuation, power purchase, operational planning and risk management are just a few examples.

In all these cases, a clear and descriptive vision of the future of markets and prices is necessary to estimate profitability, consumption costs or the value of a project based on the value of the energy it will produce.

In this webinar, the use of probabilistic metrics to obtain forecasts with several decades of horizon will be analysed, explaining what they consist of and how they differ from other methodologies to obtain long‑term market price forecasts. 

The last part of the webinar will analyse the main vectors of the energy transition and how all of them must advance together with the risks of temporary imbalances that add uncertainty to energy systems and markets. In addition, the draft update of the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) that the Spanish Government sent to the European Commission at the end of June will be analysed.


Oriol Saltó i Bauzà, is Associate Partner at AleaGreen. He is PhD in Physics from the Autonomous University of Barcelona. He has 20 years of experience in data analysis and modelling both in the context of scientific research and in energy markets. At AleaSoft, for more than ten years, he has been at the forefront of the development of forecasting models for the European energy markets: electricity, gas, oil, CO2, among others.

Alejandro Delgado is Associate Partner at AleaGreen. He is a Software Engineer with more than 10 years of experience in data analysis and forecasting in the energy sector. For the last 5 years, as CTO of AleaSoft, he has participated in the planning and development of numerous price and demand forecasting projects for the European energy markets.