News on European electricity markets
October/2023
| NEWS |
October 30, 2023
The Iberian market registers the lowest prices in Europe in the last week of October thanks to wind energy
In the last week of October, the weekly average price on the Nord Pool market was the highest since mid-June. Between October 26 and 30, the Iberian Peninsula’s MIBEL market reached the lowest price of all markets, supported by high wind energy generation. TTF gas futures remained at the €50/MWh level for the third consecutive week.
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October 27, 2023
Financial and accounting implications of PPA
It is important to anticipate the financial and accounting implications of preparing PPA contracts. There are important differences in the accounting treatment between physical and financial PPA and, in the case of the latter, their accounting can lead to volatility in the income statement. Experts stress the relevance of long-term price forecasts for a reliable and stable valuation of PPA to avoid problems in the viability of the financial statements.
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October 24, 2023
Interview of Revista Energética with Antonio Delgado Rigal, PhD in Artificial Intelligence and CEO of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting
What is the role of technology and data analysis in the development of AleaSoft’s energy price forecasts?
Technology and data analysis are the pillars of the Alea methodology. Our methodology combines recurrent neural networks, which belong to the field of Artificial Intelligence, with the Box-Jenkins methodology and classical statistical techniques. Artificial Intelligence is currently in vogue, but at AleaSoft we have been using it since our inception 24 years ago.
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October 23, 2023
Record wind energy production in Portugal and Spain in the third week of October
In the third week of October, European electricity market prices remained generally stable, with an upward trend in most cases compared to the previous week. However, in the MIBEL market prices fell due to high wind energy production, which reached an all-time record in Portugal and the highest value so far in 2023 in Spain. Gas prices averaged higher than the previous week, electricity demand rose and solar energy production fell.
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October 20, 2023
Pricing structures in PPA: impact on leverage and the IRR
Most lenders require long-term contracts, PPA, to finance renewable energy projects. The pricing structure of the PPA, whether fixed or with a guaranteed minimum, affects the amount of debt and the IRR. Market volatility influences the negotiation of PPA prices, so it is necessary to have reliable and stable price curves forecasts that provide a clear view of prices over the life of the contract.
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October 16, 2023
Price spike in European electricity markets as gas prices reach their highest level since February
In the second week of October, European electricity market prices rose. Some hourly prices were above €200/MWh, which was also the case on Monday, October 16. The rise was supported by higher gas and CO2 prices, which registered their highest levels since February and August, respectively. Increased demand and lower solar energy production also drove prices up, while wind energy helped prices to fall on some days.
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October 9, 2023
Lower gas and CO2 prices and more wind energy drive European electricity market prices down in first week of October
In the first week of October, average prices in most European electricity markets were below €85/MWh and lower than the previous week in almost all markets. However, in some hours and markets, prices exceeded €200/MWh. In MIBEL, the highest hourly price since March was registered on the 9th. Wind energy production increased and in Germany on the 3rd it was the highest since March. Gas and CO2 prices fell, with CO2 reaching its lowest level since June on the 3rd.
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October 6, 2023
Optimism to continue the photovoltaic revolution
Revolution continues and there is optimism and confidence in solar photovoltaic energy. This was the main message of the financing table at the X Solar Forum of UNEF held on October 4 and 5. Photovoltaic energy is the future because of its fundamental role in the energy transition and in achieving the energy independence from abroad.
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October 4, 2023
Interview of Energía Estratégica with Antonio Delgado Rigal, PhD in Artificial Intelligence and CEO of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting
How do you assess the increase in renewable energy targets, both in Spain and in Europe?
The increase in renewable energy targets is a response, on the one hand, to the need to meet emission reduction targets, on the other hand, to accelerate the achievement of Europe’s energy independence, but also to the current rate of increase in renewable energy capacity.
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October 3, 2023
Higher prices in the Iberian market in the third quarter, while the rest of European electricity markets registered declines
In the third quarter of 2023, average prices fell to below €100/MWh in most European electricity markets. Falling gas prices and lower electricity demand in some markets, combined with higher renewable energy production in most markets, contributed to lower prices. Solar photovoltaic energy production in the quarter was at record levels in Southern European markets and France.
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October 2, 2023
Higher demand and lower wind energy boost European electricity market prices with help from gas
In the last week of September, European electricity market prices rose compared to the previous week. In most of them, the weekly average was above €100/MWh and, in several markets, some hourly prices were above €200/MWh. The rise in gas prices, the decrease in wind energy production and higher demand favored this behavior. Brent futures continued to rise, reaching their highest level since November 2022 on September 27.
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| SOCIAL MEDIA |
November 2, 2023
Are you interested in new technologies and artificial intelligence? Would you like to be part of an interdisciplinary team made up of professionals at the highest level?...
October 31, 2023
For investment funds, banks, renewable energy developers, producers and large consumers, consistent and high-quality long-term price forecasts are essential when negotiating a PPA contract...
October 26, 2023
For producers of renewable energy, such as solar or wind energy...
October 25, 2023
For data analysts, journalists, traders, sponsors, producers and retailers...
| WEBINARS |
- Evolution and prospects of European energy markets for the winter 2023-2024
- Financing of renewable energy projects
- Importance of forecasting in audits and portfolio valuation
- Oriol Saltó i Bauzà, Associate Partner at AleaGreen
- Carlos Milans del Bosch, Partner of Financial Advisory at Deloitte
- Álvaro Antón Azcoiti, Director, Financial Advisory at Deloitte
- Ricardo Benito Pascual, Director, Financial Advisory at Deloitte
- Bárbara Cueto-Felgueroso Rato, Director Corporate Treasury Advisory Services at Deloitte
Request invitation to the webinar >>
- Evolution and prospects of European energy markets for the winter 2023-2024
- Vision of the future: Batteries and energy storage
- Oriol Saltó i Bauzà, Associate Partner at AleaGreen
- Luis Marquina de Soto, is Director of Institutional Relations
Request invitation to the webinar >>
| WORKSHOPS |
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These are the latest workshops held:
- Short term forecasting for agents that operate in the spot and futures markets. Request recording >>
- Mid-term forecasting with the stochasticity distributions for agents operating in the spot and futures markets. Request recording >>
- Alea Energy DataBase (AleaApp) for the compilation, visualisation and analysis of data related to the energy markets. Request recording >>
| HYBRID SYSTEMS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND BATTERIES |
Consult service of studies, analysis and reports for hybrid systems >>
| MARKETS FORECASTING REPORTS |
At AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, long term forecasting reports are carried out for all European energy markets. In addition, new complementary services associated with these long term reports are offered.
Mid term European electricity markets prices forecasting reports are also available, which provide a vision of the prospects for the coming months and years, taking into account the most up to date scenarios for the evolution of the economy.
Consult AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s mid term price forecasting service >>
| REPORTS FOR THE ENERGY SECTOR |
At AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, studies and reports on the European energy markets are carried out to satisfy the needs of the companies in the sector or other indirectly related companies. Some examples of these reports are:
- Long-term analysis of the electricity sector in the European markets
- Optimisation strategies for hybrid systems of renewable energy and energy storage
- Impact of the 7% tax on the market prices
- Financing and PPA
- Renewable energy auctions
- CO2 prices
- Analysis of the emission factor transferred to the market at the long term
- Price captured by photovoltaic, solar thermal, wind and hydroelectric energy
- Valuation of the wind and solar resource of a facility
- Influence of anticipated nuclear power plants shutdowns in the electricity sector
- International interconnections
- Analysis of price cannibalisation and hourly price profiles in the future
- Future of the green hydrogen in the energy sector
- Self-consumption
- Analysis of future scenarios in the sector and simulations
- Repercussions of the NECP in the electricity market
- Monographs on the main European electricity markets
- Cogeneration
- Biomass
- National, regional electricity consumption or client portfolio
- Generation optimisation
- Fuels: consumption, prices and futures
Consult service of reports for the energy sector >>
| ALEA ENERGY DATABASE (ALEAAPP) |
At AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, the Alea Energy DataBase (AleaApp) was developed, an online platform which compiles the data from the energy markets and the macroeconomic data from the main European markets, helping and facilitating the digitalisation of the companies. In this tool it is possible to visualise and analyse the data through comparative graphs of variables, calculation of the moving average, changes in the temporality of the series, among others.
Consult access service to the Alea Energy DataBase (AleaApp) >>
| ENERGY MARKETS OBSERVATORIES |
The energy markets observatories are available on the AleaSoft Energy Forecasting website, which allow analysing the evolution of the main European electricity markets in recent weeks. This tool includes hourly, daily and weekly graphs in which the information is updated daily.
