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Optimism to continue the photovoltaic revolution

AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, October 6, 2023. The Photovoltaic Revolution continues and there is optimism and confidence in solar photovoltaic energy. This was the main message of the financing table at the X Solar Forum of UNEF held on October 4 and 5. Photovoltaic energy is the future because of its fundamental role in the energy transition and in achieving the energy independence from abroad.

AleaSoft - Foro Solar UNEF mesa financiacion

The tenth edition of the Solar Forum of Unión Española Fotovoltaica (UNEF) was held on October 4 and 5, an event that brought together the photovoltaic sector to analyze and discuss current issues and future prospects of this energy in Spain. AleaSoft Energy Forecasting sends special congratulations to UNEF for the excellent organization of the event.

Once again, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting was one of the sponsors of the event.

Antonio Delgado Rigal, CEO of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, participated in the table “Have priorities changed in the analysis of financing risks?” that took place on Thursday, October 5. The main message of this table was one of optimism and confidence in photovoltaic energy.

In his speech, Antonio Delgado Rigal recalled that he had also delivered a message of optimism at the 2018 Solar Forum, in which he claimed that Spain was a gold mine for the development of the photovoltaic industry and that the country was on the verge of a Photovoltaic Revolution. Five years later, in which the growth of the installed capacity of this technology in Spain has been exponential, there is no doubt that photovoltaic energy is the future and remains a safe long‑term investment.

After electricity market prices registered record values in 2022, some events that occurred in 2023 have generated some pessimism in the sector. On the one hand, gas prices have decreased compared to 2022, which has caused a decrease in electricity market prices. In addition, in April MWh prices were zero Euros or close to that value for many solar hours. Moreover, the approval in January of the Environmental Impact Statement (DIA, for its acronym in Spanish) of a large number of projects that should be operational in 2025 raised concerns that solar photovoltaic energy prices might fall when all that new capacity comes into operation.

To prevent this, it is essential to develop energy storage, whether with batteries, pumping stations or green hydrogen. The State has to help with capacity auctions, making storage regulation more flexible and planning and developing the necessary infrastructure.

As for electricity demand, this summer and autumn record temperatures have been reached in Spain and it is expected that in the coming years the heat will increase, boosting demand for cooling, which would prevent a drop in prices during solar hours. A significant increase in demand is also expected thanks to Data Centers, which need a significant amount of energy to carry out their processes. Taking all this into account, there may be some years that are more complicated, but the future will not be as complicated as some predict.

Regarding the challenges of financing renewable energy projects, the fundamental thing is to sign a PPA (Power Purchase Agreement), which is the most beneficial for both parties. On the one hand, thanks to a PPA, developers have predictability over a part of their income, which increases the possibilities of obtaining financing under better conditions. On the other hand, offtakers reduce market price risk while meeting their environmental objectives.

The main message of the financing table and of the Solar Forum in general, was one of optimism and confidence that solar photovoltaic energy is the future, both for the energy transition and for achieving the energy independence from abroad.

AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe and the financing and valuation of renewable energy projects

The next webinar in the monthly webinar series of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting and AleaGreen will be held on Thursday, October 19. Speakers from Deloitte will participate in the webinar for the fourth time, analyzing the financing of renewable energy projects and the importance of forecasting in audits and portfolio valuation. In addition, the prospects for European energy markets for the winter 2023‑2024 will be analyzed.

Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.


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