News on European electricity markets
September/2026
| NEWS |
September 30, 2026
AEE interview with Antonio Delgado Rigal, PhD in Artificial Intelligence and CEO of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting
AEE interview with Antonio Delgado Rigal, PhD in Artificial Intelligence, founder and CEO of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
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September 29, 2026
Photovoltaics is entering a new stage
The difficulties facing some photovoltaic projects in Spain should not be mistaken for a crisis in the future of this technology. Low captured prices and hours with zero or negative prices pose new challenges, but the growing electrification of the economy, the development of storage and more sophisticated energy management are opening a stage of new opportunities for photovoltaics.
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September 28, 2026
Wind energy production decline drove up European electricity market prices despite lower gas prices in the fourth week of September
In the fourth week of September, weekly prices rose in most major European electricity markets, driven by a drop in wind energy production despite lower gas prices. Italy was the exception, as higher wind energy production and lower demand pushed prices down. The British market registered its highest daily price since January 2025. TTF gas futures settled 9.4% below the previous week’s level, while Brent futures ended the week slightly higher.
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September 25, 2026
Revenue predictability will decide battery deployment: contracts, merchant risk and capacity market
Europe will install more than 30 GW of batteries in 2026, according to S&P Global Energy, but progress in each country depends on how storage is remunerated. Markets with contracted revenues attract financing more easily. In Spain, where potential revenues are high, the bankability of standalone projects is low due to merchant risk. In AleaSoft’s view, bankability in Spain will require combining contracted revenues with a well-quantified merchant component.
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September 23, 2026
Hedging, self-consumption and batteries reduce industry’s exposure to volatility
Volatility in energy markets is once again putting risk management in the spotlight for large consumers and energy‑intensive industry. Hedging across different horizons, together with self‑consumption and battery storage, makes it possible to reduce exposure to market movements and give energy costs greater predictability.
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September 22, 2026
Storage could outpace photovoltaic growth in 2026
Energy storage is entering a new growth phase at global and European level. S&P Global Energy expects Europe to install more than 30 GW of battery storage systems in 2026, almost double the 2025 figure, while the pace of new photovoltaic installations moderates. These prospects, together with the role of self-consumption, shaped the analysis at the latest webinar by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
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September 21, 2026
European electricity markets end the third week of September lower after reaching daily highs at the start of the week
In the third week of September, weekly prices fell in most major European electricity markets, supported by higher wind energy production and lower demand, despite high gas prices. France, Portugal, Spain and the Nordic market reached their highest daily prices since December 2022. TTF gas registered its highest settlement price since then, while Brent remained above $100/bbl and reached its highest level since May.
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September 18, 2026
Arbitrage shapes the future of battery revenues: capacity market and bankability
The rapid growth of storage will progressively transform battery revenue streams in Spain. Balancing services offer highly attractive opportunities today, but their capacity is limited. In the long term, energy arbitrage is emerging as the main revenue base for these assets, now complemented by the new capacity market.
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September 16, 2026
Winter 2026-2027 in Europe: who is best prepared with gas at highs and reserves at lows
European natural gas is trading at highs not seen since late 2022, and European Union reserves stand well below the average of recent years for this time of year. However, the generation mix, the reliance on gas for heating and industry and the interconnection capacity of each country determine a very different level of exposure heading into winter among the main European electricity markets.
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September 15, 2026
Intraday spreads at 2026 highs: how much battery storage actually captures
The Spanish electricity market’s one-hour intraday spread reached an average of €195.29/MWh in August 2026, the highest monthly level of the year, compared with an average of €121.78/MWh so far in 2026. This context widens the opportunities for battery storage, but the intraday spread is only the starting point of a profitability analysis, not the actual revenue of a BESS project.
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September 14, 2026
TTF gas prices at their highest levels since 2022 and lower wind energy production drive up European electricity market prices in the second week of September
In the second week of September, weekly prices increased in most European electricity markets. Lower wind energy production in Germany and France, together with higher gas and CO2 prices, drove this trend, while stronger wind energy production pushed prices down in Spain and Portugal. Tensions in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz drove Brent oil and TTF gas futures higher, with TTF gas reaching its highest settlement price since December 2022. The Italian market registered its highest daily price since December 2022.
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September 10, 2026
Extreme heat in Spain in 2026: records, wildfires and more than 5400 deaths attributable to temperature
Exceptionally high temperatures, wildfires and more than 5400 deaths attributable to temperature once again highlight the need to combine decarbonisation, adaptation and a more resilient electricity system.
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September 9, 2026
TTF gas hits highest level since 2023 and Brent climbs back above $100/bbl
TTF gas and Brent oil futures prices continue their climb amid heightened geopolitical tension in the Middle East. The Front‑Month TTF gas futures contract closed on September 8 at €75.84/MWh and during the September 9 session it reached €79.00/MWh, its highest level since early 2023. Meanwhile, the Front‑Month Brent futures contract closed on Tuesday at $97.92/bbl and during the following session climbed back above the $100/bbl barrier for the first time since July 24.
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September 8, 2026
This summer’s SRAD activations highlight the value of flexibility: demand and storage gain prominence
The Active Demand Response Service (SRAD) activations recorded in Spain this summer have once again highlighted the importance of flexibility in an electricity system with ever-increasing renewable penetration. For large consumers, mechanisms such as SRAD also represent an opportunity to turn their capacity to adapt consumption into an additional source of revenue.
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September 7, 2026
TTF gas and Southern European electricity markets hit their highest levels since 2022 and 2023 in the first week of September
In the first week of September, Spain and Portugal reached their highest daily electricity prices since December 2022, while Italy reached its highest level since January 2023, amid lower wind energy production, higher demand and elevated gas prices. The main European electricity markets set records for solar photovoltaic energy production for a September day. TTF gas futures reached their highest price since January 2023, driven by tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and stronger gas demand in Europe.
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September 4, 2026
Data centers are not the energy transition’s problem: they can be part of the solution
Spain needs more renewable generation, but it also needs new electricity demand capable of absorbing it. The regulation proposed for data centers is demanding, but it opens an opportunity to link new demand with new generation, storage and PPAs.
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September 2, 2026
Electricity and gas futures point to a winter of high prices in Europe
Electricity futures have risen sharply in Europe over the summer, amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising gas prices. The rise increases hedging costs for large consumers and electro-intensive industry, while higher price curves may improve the bankability of renewable PPAs.
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September 1, 2026
Prices rose in all European electricity markets in August driven by gas, while solar energy hit record highs for the month
In August 2026, monthly prices rose in all the main European electricity markets. The increase in gas and CO2 emission allowance prices, together with the monthly decline in solar production and lower wind production in most markets, drove this trend. Even so, solar PV production reached record highs for an August in every market analysed, while Germany and France broke wind production records for the month.
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| SOCIAL MEDIA |
October 1, 2026
The Spanish electricity market recorded its highest weekly average price since December 2022
October 1, 2026
Solar PV is entering a new phase
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October 1, 2026
Battery Series
Part 4: Stand-alone batteries
September 30, 2026
PPA or market exposure: long-term value depends on how risk is priced
September 30, 2026
BESS projects reach a new scale: the Netherlands to build a 400 MW, 1.1 GWh BESS
September 30, 2026
Battery Series
Part 3: Batteries for generators
September 29, 2026
Is your energy procurement strategy ready for a more volatile market?
September 29, 2026
Battery Series
Part 2: Batteries for self-consumption
September 28, 2026
Finalising next year’s budget requires more than estimating an average price
September 28, 2026
Battery Series
Part 1: We are in the five-year era of batteries
September 25, 2026
Battery hybridisation changes the economics of renewable projects
September 25, 2026
Uncertainty in the future of energy prices
Part 7: Portfolio and asset management
September 24, 2026
Uncertainty in the future of energy prices
Part 6: Portfolio management and energy purchase and sale contracts
Hedging a contract in isolation may seem prudent.
September 23, 2026
Balancing services: essential data for analysing battery revenues
September 23, 2026
Uncertainty in the future of energy prices
Part 5: AleaLow: a low scenario with an associated probability
In many long-term energy price forecasts, we find three curves...
September 22, 2026
Uncertainty in the future of energy prices
Part 4: AleaSoft’s probabilistic metric
September 21, 2026
Uncertainty in the future of energy prices
Part 3: Confidence intervals and probabilistic bands
September 18, 2026
Uncertainty in the future of energy prices
Part 2: Scenarios for explanatory variables
September 17, 2026
Uncertainty in future energy prices
Part 1: Risk management
September 15, 2026
Series: How to build a good forecast in the energy sector
Part 10. How do we know whether a forecast is good?
September 14, 2026
Series: How to build a good forecast in the energy sector
Part 9. How often should a forecast be updated?
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September 14, 2026
Setting next year’s budget starts with a medium-term market outlook
September 10, 2026
Series: How to build a good forecast in the energy sector
Part 7. Forecasting also means quantifying uncertainty
September 9, 2026
Series: How to build a good forecast in the energy sector
Part 6. Artificial intelligence and hybrid models: why combine techniques?
September 8, 2026
Series: How to build a good forecast in the energy sector
Part 5. How to avoid overfitting
September 7, 2026
Series: How to build a good forecast in the energy sector
Part 4. What happens when the market changes?
September 4, 2026
Series: How to build a good forecast in the energy sector
Part 3. Correlation does not imply causation
September 3, 2026
Series: How to build a good forecast in the energy sector
Part 2. Which variables really explain the energy market?
September 2, 2026
Series: How to build a good forecast in the energy sector
Part 1. Data: the raw material of any forecast
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| WEBINARS |
On October 15, 2026, at 10:00 CET, we will hold our 70th webinar, "European energy markets: prospects, renewable energy financing and storage", covering the following topics:
- European energy markets: recent evolution and prospects for winter 2026-2027
- Financing of renewable energy and storage projects
- Prospects for batteries and hybridisation
- The role of forecasts in financing, audits and portfolio valuation
- Oriol Saltó i Bauzà, Associate Partner at AleaSoft
- Jaume Pujol Benet, Partner, Financial Advisory at Deloitte
- Álvaro Antón Azcoiti, Director, Corporate Finance Energy at Deloitte
- Ricardo Benito Pascual, Director, Corporate Finance Energy at Deloitte
- Álvaro Osés Lainez, Manager, Treasury Advisory at Deloitte
On September 17, 2026, we held our 69th webinar, "Energy markets in Europe: evolution, prospects and opportunities for storage and self-consumption", covering the following topics:
- European energy markets: recent evolution and prospects
- Current situation of energy storage, expected development and main challenges
- Progress in self‑consumption, challenges and opportunities
- Oriol Saltó i Bauzà, Associate Partner at AleaSoft
- Josefin Berg, Associate director of Renewables Markets at S&P Global Energy
| HOW WE HELP EACH PROFILE IN THE SECTOR |
Each player in the energy sector faces different decisions, but they all share the same challenge: making decisions in a context of high uncertainty, price volatility, and rapid market transformation.
At AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, we help all stakeholders in the sector anticipate scenarios, assess risks, and make decisions with a solid market outlook.
- Developers of renewable energy and battery storage projects, investment funds, and banks: support in project evaluation, financing, due diligence, asset valuation, risk analysis, PPAs, and investment decisions.
- Industry, large consumers, and data centers: support in energy cost management, purchasing strategies, hedging, PPAs, self-consumption, energy storage, and process electrification.
- Generators (utilities and IPPs): support in portfolio optimisation, revenue assessment, risk management, hybridisation, repowering, market operations, and asset planning.
- Retailers: support in portfolio management, energy purchasing strategies, pricing, hedging, demand forecasting, PPAs, and market risk analysis.
- Control centres: support in daily operations, renewable generation forecasting, demand forecasting, imbalance reduction, market participation, and management of hybrid assets and batteries.
- TSOs and distribution system operators: support in grid planning and operation, demand analysis, renewable integration, flexibility, energy storage, and system stability.
- Traders, demand aggregators, and market representatives: support in market decision-making, arbitrage, risk management, scenario analysis, buying and selling strategies, and participation in spot, futures, and balancing markets.
- Renewable fuels, hydrogen, methanol, ammonia, and biofuels: support in project evaluation, energy cost analysis, design of electricity supply strategies, renewable integration, energy storage, and market scenarios.
The goal is for each company to have access to information tailored to its reality, decision horizon, and specific risks, from daily operations to strategic planning and long-term investment.
| SOLUTIONS FOR MAKING BETTER DECISIONS IN ENERGY MARKETS |
The solutions from AleaSoft Energy Forecasting are designed to help companies reduce uncertainty, identify opportunities, and manage risks in increasingly complex energy markets.
- AleaStorage: helps assess the economic viability, revenues, sizing, and optimization of energy storage and hybridization projects.
- AleaGreen: helps make investment decisions, financing, asset valuation, PPAs, M&A, and due diligence with a long-term market perspective.
- AleaBlue: helps operate in markets, manage risks, define hedging strategies, and make short- and medium-term decisions.
- AleaHub: helps connect renewable sector players interested in opportunities related to PPAs, assets, and renewable and storage projects.
- AleaWhite: helps track and analyze energy market developments using the Alea Energy Database, an online data platform, and specialized market reports.
- AleaConsulting: helps develop customized analyses, market studies, audits, specialized reports, and strategic advisory to support investment decisions, operations, contracting, and risk management.
For more information on how AleaSoft Energy Forecasting can help your company with market decision-making, investment, financing, operations, contracting, or risk management, you can contact us at info@aleasoft.com.