AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, September 14, 2026. In the second week of September, weekly prices increased in most European electricity markets. Lower wind energy production in Germany and France, together with higher gas and CO2 prices, drove this trend, while stronger wind energy production pushed prices down in Spain and Portugal. Tensions in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz drove Brent oil and TTF gas futures higher, with TTF gas reaching its highest settlement price since December 2022. The Italian market registered its highest daily price since December 2022.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the week of September 7, solar photovoltaic energy production increased by 11% in Portugal compared with the previous week, marking its second consecutive weekly increase. In the other major European electricity markets, production decreased after the increases registered in the previous week. Italy registered the largest decline, at 18%, followed by Germany, with an 11% decrease. France and Spain registered declines of 6.3% and 2.4%, respectively.
During the week, France reached a record for solar photovoltaic energy production for a September day, with 158 GWh on September 12. Portugal registered 30 GWh on September 10, its second‑highest solar photovoltaic energy production for a September day.
For the week of September 14, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts point to increases in production in the German, Spanish and Italian markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.In the second week of September, wind energy production increased in Spain, Portugal and Italy compared with the previous week, following decreases in these markets one week earlier. Spain registered the largest increase, at 42%, followed by Portugal, with a 36% rise, and Italy, with a 6.2% increase. In contrast, wind energy production fell by 42% in Germany, ending three consecutive weeks of increases. In France, production decreased by 19%, marking its second consecutive weekly decline.
For the week of September 14, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts point to increases in production in the German, French, Portuguese and Spanish markets. In contrast, wind energy production will decrease in the Italian market.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.Electricity demand
In the week of September 7, electricity demand increased in Germany, Portugal and Great Britain compared with the previous week. Great Britain registered the largest increase, at 4.8%, following the decline of the previous week. Demand rose by 3.0% in Germany, marking its third consecutive weekly increase, while Portugal registered a 2.6% increase for the second consecutive week.
In contrast, demand decreased in Italy, Spain, France and Belgium. Italy registered the largest decline, at 9.1%, ending two consecutive weeks of increases. Demand fell by 5.2% in Spain. France registered a 1.1% decline, ending two weeks of increases, while Belgium, with a 0.7% decrease, registered its second consecutive weekly decline.
During the week, average temperatures fell in all analyzed markets compared with the previous week. Spain and France registered the largest declines, both at 2.0 °C, followed by Italy, with a 1.9 °C decrease. Temperatures also fell by 1.5 °C in Great Britain, 1.4 °C in Portugal and 1.2 °C in Germany. Belgium registered the smallest decline, at 0.6 °C.
In Spain, lower temperatures following the previous week’s heat episode, together with regional holidays on September 8 and 11, contributed to the decrease in demand. In Great Britain, the recovery after the August 31 Summer Bank Holiday supported higher demand.
For the week of September 14, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts indicate increases in the French, British and Belgian markets. In contrast, demand will decrease in the German, Portuguese, Spanish and Italian markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
Weekly average prices in the main European electricity markets increased sharply in the second week of September. Germany registered the largest increase, at 44%, followed by the British market, with a 38% rise. Prices also increased by 37% in the Netherlands, 36% in Belgium, 29% in France and 21% in the Nordic market. Italy registered the smallest increase, at 3.8%. In contrast, prices fell by 4.9% in Portugal and 5.0% in Spain.
In the week of September 7, the Italian market registered the highest weekly average, at €210.54/MWh, followed by the British and Belgian markets, at €174.89/MWh and €174.68/MWh, respectively. The Netherlands and Germany averaged €168.61/MWh and €162.39/MWh. The Nordic market registered the lowest weekly average, at €104.38/MWh, despite the increase during the week. In the other markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, weekly average prices ranged from €137.28/MWh in Spain to €153.24/MWh in France.
Regarding daily prices, the Nordic market was the only analyzed market to register prices below €100/MWh in some sessions during the second week of September. On Sunday, September 13, the Nordic market reached the lowest daily average of the week among the analyzed markets, at €63.48/MWh.
On the other hand, most major European electricity markets reached daily prices above €170/MWh during at least one session in the second week of September. On Monday, September 14, at the start of the following week, prices climbed even higher in almost all markets. Prices exceeded €200/MWh on September 10 in the Belgian market and on September 11 and 13 in the British market. In the Italian market, prices exceeded €215/MWh from Monday through Friday of the second week of September. On September 10, the Italian market reached the highest daily average of the week among the analyzed markets, at €228.48/MWh. This marked its highest price since December 23, 2022.
The sharp decline in wind energy production in Germany and France, together with higher gas and CO2 prices, pushed prices up in most European electricity markets during the second week of September. Solar energy production also decreased in most markets, while demand increased in some cases. In contrast, the sharp increase in wind energy production in the Iberian Peninsula contributed to lower prices in Spain and Portugal. In Italy, higher wind energy production and lower electricity demand limited the price increase, which remained the smallest among the analyzed markets.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts point to increases in most of the analyzed European electricity markets during the week of September 14. Higher demand in some markets will support this trend. In contrast, prices will decrease in the British market. However, gas price developments will also influence prices across European electricity markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, RTE, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market increased during the second week of September. On Monday, September 7, they settled at their weekly low of $97.00/bbl, already 0.7% higher than the previous Friday’s settlement price. On Thursday, September 10, they reached their weekly high of $107.63/bbl, the highest settlement price since May 20, according to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting. On Friday, September 11, the settlement price stood at $104.61/bbl, 8.7% higher than the previous Friday.
Persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the risk of further disruptions to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz maintained upward pressure on Brent oil futures during the week. Threats from Yemen’s Houthis to shipping in the Red Sea also added upward pressure on prices.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, prices settled at their weekly low of €73.31/MWh on Monday, September 7, already 1.9% higher than the previous Friday. Prices continued to rise through Thursday, September 10, when they reached their weekly high of €82.05/MWh, the highest level since December 30, 2022, according to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting. On Friday, September 11, the settlement price stood at €79.52/MWh, 11% higher than the previous Friday.
Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continued to restrict liquefied natural gas arrivals from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, while higher gas demand in Europe also maintained upward pressure on TTF gas futures during the second week of September.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2026, prices settled at their weekly low of €84.74/t on Monday, September 7, 0.7% higher than the previous Friday. Prices continued to increase for most of the week and reached their weekly high of €85.84/t on Thursday, September 10, the highest settlement price since July 23, according to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting. On Friday, September 11, the settlement price stood at €85.53/t, 1.6% higher than the previous Friday.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe
On Thursday, September 17, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will hold the 69th edition of its monthly webinar series. The session will review recent developments and the prospects for European energy markets, as well as the current state, expected development and main challenges of energy storage, and the latest developments, challenges and opportunities in self-consumption. Josefin Berg, Associate Director of Renewables Markets at S&P Global Energy, and Oriol Saltó i Bauzà, Associate Partner at AleaSoft, will speak at this edition. Francisco Valverde Sánchez, an independent renewable energy development professional, will also join the analysis panel of the Spanish‑language webinar.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.