AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, September 23, 2026. Volatility in energy markets is once again putting risk management in the spotlight for large consumers and energy‑intensive industry. Hedging across different horizons, together with self‑consumption and battery storage, makes it possible to reduce exposure to market movements and give energy costs greater predictability.
The 69th edition of the monthly webinar series organised by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting took place on September 17, 2026. Oriol Saltó i Bauzà, Associate Partner at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, reviewed the recent evolution of European energy markets and the outlook for the coming months. Josefin Berg, Associate Director of Renewables Markets at S&P Global Energy, analysed the situation of energy storage in Europe, its expected development and the main challenges, as well as progress in self‑consumption. The Spanish-language edition also included a panel discussion with Francisco Valverde, an independent professional specialising in the development of renewable energy.
A winter of high prices with gas reserves below usual levels
The starting point for industry is demanding. TTF gas prices in the spot market are around €80/MWh, levels not seen since December 2022, and Brent prices exceed 100 dollars per barrel. Restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz are keeping the supply of liquefied natural gas tight, with Europe having to compete for it with Asian markets, and European storage is around 69% full compared with 81% at the same time last year, well below the usual target of 90%.
The pass-through to electricity markets is already visible. In addition, the summer saw an increase in electricity demand of close to 7% in July and 4% in August in Spain, driven by heatwaves and growing use of air conditioning. Electricity futures reflect that pressure, with the fourth quarter of 2026 trading at around €150/MWh in the Spanish market, the first quarter of 2027 at around €130/MWh and the whole of 2027 between 90 and €95/MWh. In the Italian and German markets, the references for 2027 are clearly higher.
Lower gas reserves also reduce the system’s room for manoeuvre in the event of a prolonged cold spell or a period of low wind energy production. Less available flexibility translates into greater price volatility and sharper peaks, a scenario that directly affects anyone buying electricity without hedging.
The goal of a hedge is not to beat the market
During the panel discussion, it was stressed that the goal of a hedging strategy should not be to try to outperform the market, but to prevent unexpected price movements from having an excessive impact on a company’s costs. This difference in approach shapes every decision that follows.
A strategy based solely on buying at market prices can make it possible to take advantage of periods of low prices, but it leaves the consumer completely exposed when conditions change. Likewise, starting to hedge only once prices have already risen limits its effectiveness, because the risk premium is already built into the quotes.
For this reason, one of the strategies put forward is to diversify hedges across different horizons, combining the short, medium and long term and using instruments such as futures, bilateral contracts or PPA depending on each consumer’s characteristics and needs. The aim is to have a cost structure compatible with the business and to reduce uncertainty, not to systematically pick the market minimum. The reasoning is symmetrical for sellers, since generators and developers face the opposite risk when prices correct downwards.
From industrial self-consumption to the battery
The development of industrial self-consumption with batteries adds a new tool to this management. A photovoltaic installation reduces electricity purchases from the grid during solar hours, but its ability to keep reducing consumption reaches a limit when surplus generation increases.
The battery can store those surpluses and shift them to other hours of the day, increasing the share of self-consumption and reducing electricity purchases precisely when prices may be higher. It also makes it possible to adapt charging and discharging to hourly market signals and, in certain cases, to reserve part of its capacity to take part in flexibility services. The value of that flexibility has grown with the intraday spreads recorded in the Spanish market over the summer, with average monthly differences between the day’s minimum and maximum prices close to €200/MWh.
During the webinar, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting presented the experience of a study carried out for a large industrial consumer, in which adding a four-hour battery considerably increased the use of self-consumption. The optimisation consisted of avoiding the sale of photovoltaic surpluses during low-price hours and using that energy later to cover consumption in higher-value hours.
In addition to savings on electricity purchases, industrial batteries can open up new sources of revenue or savings linked to flexibility. These include the possibility of taking part in mechanisms such as SRAD, holding stored energy that makes it possible to temporarily reduce grid consumption without affecting the production process.
Europe enters the storage deployment phase
In the European context, the forecasts presented by S&P Global Energy indicate that Europe will install more than 30 GW of storage with batteries this year, practically double the previous year, within an EU ambition of 200 GW of energy storage by 2030. Spain has committed to adding 4000 MW between 2026 and 2028 under the first European tripartite agreement and already has more than 2 GW of behind‑the‑meter batteries, a figure that reflects the weight of self-consumption in the Spanish market.
However, the pace of development will remain conditioned by bankability. Bank financing of battery projects is advancing cautiously, because revenues depend on operation and on the hourly spread, and not only on the average market price. The approval of the capacity payment provides a contracted revenue reference that eases risk analysis, as do tolling contracts and agreements with optimisers. In the long term, the basis of a battery’s revenues will remain energy arbitrage, while balancing services offer a more limited space with a higher risk of saturation.
Joint risk management as a decisive factor
Hedging, self-consumption and energy storage are not mutually exclusive alternatives. They are part of a single energy risk management strategy, and their value increases when they are designed together and with the same market vision. With increasingly volatile markets and larger price differences between hours, understanding the consumption profile, having reliable energy forecasts and jointly optimising the different tools can be decisive in reducing costs and increasing the stability of energy budgets. The decisions industry takes in the coming months will shape its competitiveness for years to come.
Storage as a strategic element: the role of AleaStorage
The AleaStorage division of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, specialised in energy storage, focuses on the strategic analysis of batteries and hybridisation projects, providing estimates of battery revenues in energy markets and balancing services for stand-alone and hybrid projects. It also carries out hybridisation analyses with renewables to maximise revenues and reduce risks, assessments of capacity market revenues and modelling of long-term price scenarios and price volatility. For the industrial consumer, this analysis translates into battery sizing, the charging and discharging strategy and the quantification of savings compared with buying on the market.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting