News on European electricity markets
August/2026
| NEWS |
August 31, 2026
European electricity markets registered higher wind energy production and lower prices in the fourth week of August
In the fourth week of August, weekly prices fell in most European electricity markets. A widespread increase in wind energy production supported this trend, with Italy as the exception. Portugal set a wind energy production record for an August day. Brent futures fell. In contrast, TTF gas futures rose, supported by low European gas storage levels and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, and reached their highest settlement price since January 2023.
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August 27, 2026
800 articles telling the story of a historic transformation of the energy sector
Since 2019, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting has been publishing regular analysis on electricity markets, renewables and the sector’s major changes in El Periódico de la Energía. This 800th publication is an opportunity to look back and see just how much the energy sector has changed in barely seven years.
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August 26, 2026
Battery de-rating in the capacity mechanism: what the residual demand data show
With the first capacity mechanism auction on the horizon, one discussion carries a direct impact on storage revenues, the batteries’ de-rating coefficient. The extension of Almaraz to 2030 also requires a review of the analyses underpinning the mechanism. Data on Spain’s mainland residual demand from 2021 to 2025 show that stress episodes are becoming increasingly shorter.
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August 25, 2026
Gas, futures and hedging: when waiting is also a risk decision
The rebound in TTF gas and its impact on electricity market prices puts the spotlight once again on the purchasing strategies of large consumers. In a highly volatile environment, deciding when and how much to hedge requires analysing not only market prices, but also the risks and outlook for their evolution. Medium-term forecasts help underpin these decisions and better manage exposure to the price of electricity.
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August 24, 2026
TTF gas at its highest since January 2023 drives up European electricity market prices in the third week of August
In the third week of August, weekly average prices rose in most of the main European electricity markets. The increase in TTF gas and CO2 and the fall in solar energy production drove this trend. In Spain, Portugal and Italy, higher wind energy production and lower demand favored the fall in prices. Brent oil and TTF gas futures rose because of the tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. TTF reached its highest settlement price since January 23, 2023.
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August 21, 2026
Extreme heat tests Europe’s electricity systems: demand, generation and prices under pressure
This summer’s heatwaves are simultaneously affecting different European electricity systems, though through different channels. They increase cooling-related electricity demand, constrain generation availability and raise price volatility. The episodes recorded in Spain, France, Italy, Romania and Hungary show why anticipating these risks requires a view across the whole of Europe’s electricity markets.
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August 19, 2026
European gas reserves at their lowest in recent years: pressure on summer prices and risk for the winter
The European Union’s gas reserves currently stand at around 61% of their capacity, the lowest level for this time of year in recent years, even below the level recorded in 2021. In recent days, gas prices have risen and, on August 18, TTF gas futures reached their highest value since the beginning of 2023. The need to replenish inventories is already pressuring prices this summer, while the level of reserves Europe reaches October with will determine its exposure during the coming winter.
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August 18, 2026
Almaraz extension to 2030: gas, prices, renewable energy curtailment and capacity market
The extension of the Almaraz nuclear power plant until June 2030 reduces the electricity system’s short-term exposure to gas and to its prices. At the same time, it increases the pressure to integrate a growing renewable capacity and may raise the risk of curtailment, while it changes the assumptions used to size the future capacity market.
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August 17, 2026
European electricity market prices rise in the second week of August driven by gas and lower wind energy production
In the second week of August, weekly prices increased in the main European electricity markets, except in Italy, and exceeded 128 €/MWh, except in the Nord Pool market. The rise in TTF gas prices and the fall in wind energy production favored this trend. Germany and Portugal set solar photovoltaic energy production records for a day in August. The disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz drove up Brent and TTF gas futures.
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August 14, 2026
Renewable repowering is no longer a simple replacement: capacity, storage and grid connection all come into play
The MITECO has awarded €612 million to 173 wind repowering and hydroelectric modernisation projects under the Repoten 2 programme. More than half of them will include hybridised storage, adding 2 GWh of new capacity. The call for applications shows that renewing an asset now requires coordinating capacity, storage, grid access, captured price and financing.
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August 12, 2026
The low coincidence between markets of the days with the highest spreads favours the diversification of battery portfolios
The days with the highest intraday spreads in Spain show little coincidence with those of the markets of central and northern Europe. The different dynamics that condition spreads in each region mean that the best arbitrage opportunities do not necessarily occur on the same days. For pan-European battery portfolios, this low synchrony can become an additional factor of diversification and risk management.
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August 11, 2026
The August 12 eclipse puts photovoltaic energy to the test and highlights the value of batteries and forecasts
The total solar eclipse of August 12 will cause a rapid and synchronised fall in photovoltaic production in Spain and other European countries. Beyond its exceptional nature, the phenomenon shows on a large scale an everyday challenge of solar generation. Market participants must anticipate sharp changes in production and manage their effects with accurate forecasts and flexible resources such as batteries.
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August 10, 2026
Rising wind energy production and falling demand drive down European electricity market prices in the first week of August
In the first week of August, weekly prices fell in most of the main European electricity markets. In contrast, they rose in Italy, France, Spain and Portugal. The increase in wind energy production and the decline in demand favored this trend. Spain, Portugal, France and Germany set photovoltaic energy production records for a day in August. Brent oil and TTF gas futures fell on expectations that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen, while CO 2 futures rose.
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August 07, 2026
Voltage control and reactive power: the new value of batteries, renewables and industry
The transition towards an electricity system with more renewable generation does not only transform the way electricity is produced. It also changes the resources the system needs to keep frequency and voltage within safe limits, and with them the value that batteries, renewable energy and industry provide.
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August 5, 2026
Record July spreads in Spain and Portugal reinforce the signal for storage
In July, the average one-hour intraday spread of the Spanish electricity market reached a value of €148/MWh, a historic high even above the levels of the 2022 energy crisis. Portugal also recorded a record of €142/MWh. As relevant as the magnitude is how it is generated. While in other European markets the opportunities for batteries are concentrated in a few extreme episodes, in Spain they appear more regularly.
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August 4, 2026
Gas and demand drove up prices in a July of record demand and solar energy production in Europe
In July 2026, monthly prices rose in most of the main European electricity markets. The rise in gas prices and CO 2 emission rights prices, the increase in demand and lower wind energy production in several markets drove this trend. Solar photovoltaic energy production reached record highs in Germany, Spain, France, Italy and Portugal. Demand also marked record highs in some markets and reached its highest levels in years in others.
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August 3, 2026
Falling wind energy production and rising demand drive up European electricity market prices in the last week of July
In the last week of July, prices rose across the main European electricity markets except the Nordic market, and most markets exceeded €100/MWh. Lower wind energy production and higher demand drove this trend. Markets set records for photovoltaic energy production for an August day. Easing hostilities between the United States and Iran pushed Brent oil and TTF gas futures lower, while CO2 futures also declined.
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| SOCIAL MEDIA |
August 31, 2026
Artificial intelligence to understand and anticipate energy
Part 10. AI as a tool for making energy decisions
August 31, 2026
Artificial intelligence to understand and anticipate energy
Part 9. Short-, mid- and long-term forecasts: three different problems
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August 28, 2026
Artificial intelligence to understand and anticipate energy
Part 8. How is a forecast validated?
August 27, 2026
Artificial intelligence to understand and anticipate energy
Part 7. The importance of explanatory variables
August 26, 2026
Artificial intelligence to understand and anticipate energy
Part 6. AleaModel: artificial intelligence and statistics working together
August 25, 2026
Artificial intelligence to understand and anticipate energy
Part 5. Why is a neural network not enough?
August 24, 2026
Artificial intelligence to understand and anticipate energy
Part 4. Forecasting is not guessing.
August 21, 2026
Artificial intelligence to understand and anticipate energy
Part 3. How does a neural network learn?
August 20, 2026
Artificial intelligence to understand and anticipate energy
Part 2. AI, machine learning and neural networks: are they the same thing?
August 19, 2026
Artificial intelligence to understand and anticipate energy
Part 1. Artificial intelligence did not begin with ChatGPT.
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| WEBINARS |
- * European energy markets: recent evolution and prospects
- * Current situation of energy storage, expected development and main challenges
- * Progress in self‑consumption, challenges and opportunities
- * Oriol Saltó i Bauzà, Associate Partner at AleaSoft
- * Josefin Berg, Associate director of Renewables Markets at S&P Global Energy
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| HOW WE HELP EACH PROFILE IN THE SECTOR |
Each player in the energy sector faces different decisions, but they all share the same challenge: making decisions in a context of high uncertainty, price volatility, and rapid market transformation.
At AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, we help all stakeholders in the sector anticipate scenarios, assess risks, and make decisions with a solid market outlook.
- * Developers of renewable energy and battery storage projects, investment funds, and banks: support in project evaluation, financing, due diligence, asset valuation, risk analysis, PPAs, and investment decisions.
- * Industry, large consumers, and data centers: support in energy cost management, purchasing strategies, hedging, PPAs, self-consumption, energy storage, and process electrification.
- * Generators (utilities and IPPs): support in portfolio optimisation, revenue assessment, risk management, hybridisation, repowering, market operations, and asset planning.
- * Retailers: support in portfolio management, energy purchasing strategies, pricing, hedging, demand forecasting, PPAs, and market risk analysis.
- * Control centres: support in daily operations, renewable generation forecasting, demand forecasting, imbalance reduction, market participation, and management of hybrid assets and batteries.
- * TSOs and distribution system operators: support in grid planning and operation, demand analysis, renewable integration, flexibility, energy storage, and system stability.
- * Traders, demand aggregators, and market representatives: support in market decision-making, arbitrage, risk management, scenario analysis, buying and selling strategies, and participation in spot, futures, and balancing markets.
- * Renewable fuels, hydrogen, methanol, ammonia, and biofuels: support in project evaluation, energy cost analysis, design of electricity supply strategies, renewable integration, energy storage, and market scenarios.
The goal is for each company to have access to information tailored to its reality, decision horizon, and specific risks, from daily operations to strategic planning and long-term investment.
| SOLUTIONS FOR MAKING BETTER DECISIONS IN ENERGY MARKETS |
The solutions from AleaSoft Energy Forecasting are designed to help companies reduce uncertainty, identify opportunities, and manage risks in increasingly complex energy markets.
- * AleaStorage: helps assess the economic viability, revenues, sizing, and optimization of energy storage and hybridization projects.
- * AleaGreen: helps make investment decisions, financing, asset valuation, PPAs, M&A, and due diligence with a long-term market perspective.
- * AleaBlue: helps operate in markets, manage risks, define hedging strategies, and make short- and medium-term decisions.
- * AleaHub: helps connect renewable sector players interested in opportunities related to PPAs, assets, and renewable and storage projects.
- * AleaWhite: helps track and analyze energy market developments using the Alea Energy Database, an online data platform, and specialized market reports.
- * AleaConsulting: helps develop customized analyses, market studies, audits, specialized reports, and strategic advisory to support investment decisions, operations, contracting, and risk management.