AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, August 3, 2026. In the last week of July, prices rose across the main European electricity markets except the Nordic market, and most markets exceeded €100/MWh. Lower wind energy production and higher demand drove this trend. Markets set records for photovoltaic energy production for an August day. Easing hostilities between the United States and Iran pushed Brent oil and TTF gas futures lower, while CO₂ futures also declined.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the week of July 27, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in most major European electricity markets compared with the previous week. Spain registered the largest increase, at 7.8%, followed by Portugal, at 7.2%. Production also increased by 5.2% in Germany and by 3.3% in Italy. In contrast, production in France fell by 2.9%.
During the week, several markets set solar photovoltaic energy production records for an August day. On August 1, Spain, France, Italy and Portugal reached their highest production levels for a day in that month, at 259 GWh, 172 GWh, 161 GWh and 28 GWh, respectively. Germany set its record on August 2, with production of 450 GWh.
For the week of August 3, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts point to lower solar energy production in the German, Spanish and Italian markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.During the last week of July, wind energy production fell in all major European electricity markets compared with the previous week. France and Italy registered the largest declines, both at 47%. Wind energy production fell by 28% in Germany. On the Iberian Peninsula, production dropped by 24% in Portugal and by 22% in Spain.
For the week of August 3, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts indicate higher wind energy production in the German, Portuguese and French markets. In contrast, wind energy production will decline in the Spanish and Italian markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.Electricity demand
During the last week of July, electricity demand increased in most major European electricity markets compared with the previous week. Belgium registered the largest increase, at 4.7%, followed by Italy, at 3.8%. Demand also increased by 1.4% in Portugal, 1.2% in Germany and 1.1% in France. Great Britain registered the smallest increase, 0.9%. Portugal and Great Britain registered a second consecutive week of growth. In contrast, demand in Spain fell by 1.2%, marking a second consecutive weekly decline.
Average temperatures rose in all the markets covered by the analysis during the week. Germany registered the largest increase, 4.5 °C, while Spain registered the smallest, 0.1 °C. In the other markets, increases ranged from 2.5 °C in France to 0.3 °C in Great Britain.
Higher temperatures boosted electricity demand in several markets. In Belgium, the return to regular business activity after the July 21 Belgian National Day holiday also supported demand growth.
For the week of August 3, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts indicate higher demand in Belgium, France and Great Britain. In contrast, they forecast lower demand in Italy, Germany, Spain and Portugal.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
Weekly average prices rose in most major European electricity markets during the last week of July compared with the previous week. Only the Nordic market registered a decline, 4.1%. Spain registered the smallest increase, 1.4%, while France registered the largest percentage increase, 10%. In the other markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices rose by between 2.7% in the Portuguese market and 9.4% in the German market.
In the week of July 27, weekly average prices exceeded €100/MWh in most European electricity markets. The Nordic market provided the exception, with the lowest weekly average at €47.25/MWh. In contrast, the Italian market reached the highest weekly average, at €177.16/MWh, followed by the British market, at €145.07/MWh. In the other markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices ranged from €104.44/MWh in the French market to €121.15/MWh in the Portuguese market.
Regarding daily prices, the Nordic market registered prices below €75/MWh throughout the last week of July. The French market also registered a price below €75/MWh on Monday, July 27, €64.00/MWh. On that day, the Nordic market reached the lowest average of the week among the markets covered by the analysis, €29.41/MWh.
Meanwhile, almost all European electricity markets registered daily prices above €100/MWh during most sessions in the last week of July. In the Italian market, daily prices exceeded €165/MWh throughout the week. On July 31, this market reached the highest daily average of the week among the markets covered by the analysis, €186.23/MWh. This figure marked its highest price since January 21, 2025. On Monday, August 3, the Italian market price climbed even higher than the July 31 level and reached €197.71/MWh. This figure marked its highest price since January 25, 2023.
Lower wind energy production drove price increases in most European electricity markets during the last week of July. Higher electricity demand in most markets also contributed to this trend.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that prices will increase in all the European electricity markets covered by its analysis during the week of August 3. Declining solar energy production in several markets and lower wind energy production on the Iberian Peninsula and in Italy will support this upward trend.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, RTE, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market reached their weekly minimum settlement price of $84.09/bbl on Tuesday, July 28. In contrast, after rising by 7.9% from the previous day, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price of $90.74/bbl on July 29. On Friday, July 31, they settled at $90.12/bbl, 6.9% below the previous Friday’s level.
During the last week of July, developments in tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and negotiations between the United States and Iran continued to shape Brent oil futures prices.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, they reached their weekly minimum settlement price of €57.74/MWh on Tuesday, July 28. However, prices rebounded by 4.8% in the following session, and these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price of €60.49/MWh on July 29. On Friday, July 31, they settled at €59.07/MWh, 7.1% below the previous Friday’s level.
European gas inventories ended the last week of July at approximately 55% of storage capacity. This level stood well below the five‑year average and left the region in its weakest position ahead of the coming winter since 2011. Low inventory levels, heat waves and competition with Asia for liquefied natural gas limited the potential decline in TTF gas futures prices during the week. However, easing hostilities between the United States and Iran kept prices below €60/MWh during most sessions.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2026, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price of €82.33/t on Monday, July 27. Even so, this price stood 1.3% below the previous Friday’s level. Prices continued to fall during the week and reached their weekly minimum of €81.26/t on Friday, July 31, 2.6% below the previous Friday’s level.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe
In a context of high price volatility in European electricity markets, such as the volatility registered during the last week of July, energy storage and self‑consumption continue to gain importance as key responses from the energy industry. On Thursday, September 17, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will hold the 69th edition of its monthly webinar series. This session will focus on the evolution and prospects of European energy markets, as well as the current situation, expected growth and main challenges of energy storage. The speakers will also discuss progress, challenges and opportunities in self‑consumption. Josefin Berg, Associate Director of Renewables Markets at S&P Global Energy, and Oriol Saltó i Bauzà, Associate Partner at AleaSoft, will be the speakers at the event. The Spanish‑language webinar’s analysis panel will also feature Francisco Valverde Sánchez, a telecommunications technical engineer and independent renewable energy development professional. Alejandro Delgado Fornaguera, Associate Partner at AleaSoft, will moderate the webinar.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
