AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, August 24, 2026. In the third week of August, weekly average prices rose in most of the main European electricity markets. The increase in TTF gas and CO₂ and the fall in solar energy production drove this trend. In Spain, Portugal and Italy, higher wind energy production and lower demand favored the fall in prices. Brent oil and TTF gas futures rose because of the tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. TTF reached its highest settlement price since January 23, 2023.
Solar photovoltaic energy production and wind energy production
In the week of August 17, solar photovoltaic energy production fell in the main European electricity markets compared to the previous week. Germany recorded the largest decrease, of 41%, after three consecutive weeks of increases. Portugal and France followed, with falls of 24% and 22%, respectively. In Italy, production fell by 10%, while Spain recorded the smallest decrease, of 4.5%. Both markets accumulated their third consecutive week of declines. The lower solar irradiation typical of the second half of August contributed to this widespread fall.
For the week of August 24, the solar energy forecasts of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting point to an increase in the German and Italian markets. In contrast, solar energy production will fall in the Spanish market.
In the third week of August, wind energy production rose in the main European electricity markets compared to the previous week. France recorded the largest increase, of 61%. Italy followed, with a rise of 34%, and Spain, with an increase of 33%. The Italian market accumulated its second consecutive week of growth. Germany recorded an increase of 29% and Portugal the smallest increase, of 20%.
For the week of August 24, the wind energy forecasts of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting point to increases in the markets of the Iberian Peninsula and Germany. In contrast, wind energy production will fall in the French and Italian markets.
Electricity demand
In the third week of August, electricity demand fell in the main European electricity markets compared to the previous week. Italy recorded the largest decrease, of 6.0%, followed by France, with a fall of 4.6%. In Spain, Germany and Portugal, demand fell by between 2.9% in Spain and 2.3% in Portugal. Spain accumulated its fifth consecutive week of declines, while Germany, Portugal and Italy chained their third week of falls. Great Britain and Belgium recorded the smallest decreases, of 0.8% and 0.6%, respectively.
During the week, average temperatures fell in all the markets analyzed compared to the previous week. Germany recorded the largest decrease, of 4.6°C, followed by France, with 4.3°C, and Great Britain, with 3.7°C. In Italy, Portugal, Spain and Belgium, average temperatures fell by between 0.7°C in Belgium and 1.8°C in Italy.
The fall in temperatures favored the decrease in electricity demand in all the markets analyzed.
For the week of August 24, the demand forecasts of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting indicate increases in the Italian, German, Belgian, Portuguese and Spanish markets. In contrast, demand will fall in the French and British markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
In the third week of August, weekly average prices rose in most of the main European electricity markets. The Nord Pool market recorded the largest increase, of 82%. The German and Dutch markets followed, with increases of 11% and 10%, respectively. In the French, British and Belgian markets, prices rose by between 3.7% in France and 6.0% in Belgium. In contrast, prices fell in the Spanish, Portuguese and Italian markets. Spain recorded the largest fall, of 6.4%, while Portugal and Italy recorded decreases of 3.9% and 2.2%, respectively.
In the week of August 17, the Italian market recorded the highest weekly average, of 168.31 €/MWh. The British market ranked second, with 163.97 €/MWh. The Nord Pool market had the lowest average, of 111.76 €/MWh, despite the strong increase compared to the previous week. The Spanish market recorded the second lowest average, of 120.70 €/MWh. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, weekly average prices ranged between 128.97 €/MWh in the Portuguese market and 144.50 €/MWh in the German market.
As for daily prices, all the markets analyzed, except the Nord Pool market, exceeded 75 €/MWh on the seven days of the week. The Italian and British markets recorded prices above 125 €/MWh throughout the week. On August 17, the British market reached the highest daily average among the markets analyzed, of 181.47 €/MWh. In the Nord Pool market, the daily price reached its weekly maximum, of 153.28 €/MWh, on August 19. Subsequently, on August 23, it fell to 32.85 €/MWh, the lowest value of the week among the markets analyzed.
The increase in TTF gas futures and, to a lesser extent, in CO₂ emission rights put upward pressure on electricity market prices. The widespread fall in solar photovoltaic energy production also favored this trend. In contrast, in Spain, Portugal and Italy, the increase in wind energy production and the decrease in electricity demand offset the upward effect of gas, CO₂ and lower solar energy production, so weekly average prices fell. In the rest of the markets, the factors that drove prices up prevailed.
The price forecasts of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting indicate that, in the week of August 24, prices will fall in most European electricity markets. The expected increase in wind energy production will favor the fall in prices in Germany, Spain and Portugal. The Italian market will be the exception, as prices will rise in a context of an expected fall in wind energy production.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, RTE, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month on the ICE market chained daily increases throughout the third week of August. On Monday, August 17, they reached the weekly minimum settlement price, of 90.87 $/bbl. On Friday, August 21, they reached the weekly maximum, of 94.39 $/bbl, 6.6% higher than that of the previous Friday.
The persistence of the tensions between the United States and Iran and the lack of an agreement to end the conflict affecting transit through the Strait of Hormuz supported Brent oil futures prices. These futures thus chained their second consecutive week of increases.
As for TTF gas futures on the ICE market for the Front‑Month, on Monday, August 17 they reached the weekly minimum settlement price, of 61.76 €/MWh. After rising on Tuesday, prices fell slightly on Wednesday and resumed their upward trend during the last two sessions. On Friday, August 21, they reached the weekly maximum, of 65.86 €/MWh, 7.2% higher than that of the previous Friday and the highest price since January 23, 2023.
European gas reserves exceeded 60% of their capacity in mid‑August, but remained below the average for that time of year over the last five years. This level of reserves, together with the uncertainty over liquefied natural gas supply because of the tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, favored the upward trend of TTF gas futures during the week.
As regards CO2 emission rights futures on the EEX market for the December 2026 reference contract, on Monday, August 17 they reached the weekly minimum settlement price, of 81.59 €/t. On Friday, August 21, they reached the weekly maximum, of 82.61 €/t, 1.0% higher than that of the previous Friday. Settlement prices remained above 81 €/t throughout the week and showed a more stable evolution than Brent oil and TTF gas futures.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe
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Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.