AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, August 17, 2026. In the second week of August, weekly prices increased in the main European electricity markets, except in Italy, and exceeded 128 €/MWh, except in the Nord Pool market. The rise in TTF gas prices and the fall in wind energy production favored this trend. Germany and Portugal set solar photovoltaic energy production records for a day in August. The disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz drove up Brent and TTF gas futures.
Solar photovoltaic energy production and wind energy production
In the week of August 10, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in most of the main European electricity markets compared to the previous week. Portugal registered the largest increase, of 6.4%, followed by Germany, with 3.7%, and France, with 3.0%. Production rose in France for the second consecutive week and in Germany for the third consecutive week. In contrast, Spain and Italy recorded their second consecutive week of declines. Spain registered the largest fall, of 2.7%, while production decreased by 1.2% in Italy.
During the week, solar photovoltaic energy production reached all-time records for a day in August in Germany and Portugal. On August 10, Portugal registered the highest production for a day of that month, with 34 GWh. Germany set its record on August 12, with 491 GWh. For their part, Spain and France registered the second highest solar photovoltaic energy production in their history for a day in August. Spain reached 275 GWh on August 11, while France registered 175 GWh on August 13.
For the week of August 17, the solar energy forecasts of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting indicate that production will increase in the Spanish market and decrease in the German and Italian markets.
In the second week of August, wind energy production increased by 29% in the Italian market compared to the previous week, after two consecutive weeks of declines. In contrast, wind energy production decreased in the markets of the Iberian Peninsula, Germany and France. Portugal registered the largest fall, of 19%, followed by Germany, with 16%, and France, with 15%. In Spain, wind energy production decreased by 11% and recorded its third consecutive week of declines.
For the week of August 17, the wind energy forecasts of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting point to an increase in production in all the analyzed markets.
Electricity demand
In the week of August 10, electricity demand decreased in most of the main European electricity markets compared to the previous week. Italy registered the largest decline, of 13%, followed by Portugal, with 2.8%, and Spain, with 2.3%. Germany registered the smallest fall, of 0.9%. The German, Italian and Portuguese markets recorded their second consecutive week of declines, while the Spanish market accumulated its fourth consecutive week of decreases. In contrast, demand increased in the British, Belgian and French markets. Great Britain registered the largest increase, of 6.8%, followed by Belgium, with 5.3%, and France, with 1.2%. Belgium recorded its third consecutive week of increases.
During the week, average temperatures rose in most of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting. Great Britain registered the largest increase, of 2.2°C, followed by France, with 1.5°C, and Belgium, with 0.6°C. In Spain and Portugal, average temperatures rose 0.3°C. In contrast, they fell 0.5°C in Germany and 0.3°C in Italy.
High temperatures marked the week in Great Britain and France. In England, the authorities kept an amber heat alert active and London provisionally reached 38.1°C on August 13, the highest temperature recorded in the United Kingdom so far in 2026. In France, temperatures exceeded 40°C in several areas of the country. The rise in temperatures favored the growth of electricity demand in the British, French and Belgian markets. In Great Britain, the bank holiday observed in Scotland on August 3 also contributed to the week-on-week increase, as it reduced activity during the previous week.
In addition, the mid-August holiday period favored the fall in electricity demand in Italy, Spain and Portugal.
For the week of August 17, the demand forecasts of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting indicate increases in the markets of Italy, Great Britain and Belgium. In contrast, they anticipate declines in the markets of France, Portugal, Germany and Spain.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
Weekly average prices increased in most of the main European electricity markets during the week of August 10 compared to the previous week. The Nord Pool market reached the largest percentage rise, of 40%, while the Spanish market registered the smallest increase, of 6.3%. In the rest of the markets analyzed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices rose between 11% in the Portuguese market and 25% in the French and British markets. In contrast, the Italian market was the only one to register a decline, of 7.8%.
In the week of August 10, weekly average prices exceeded 128 €/MWh in most of the analyzed markets. Only the Nord Pool market remained below that level and registered the lowest average, of 61.40 €/MWh. The Italian market reached the highest weekly average, of 172.17 €/MWh, followed by the British market, with 157.07 €/MWh. In the rest of the markets, average prices ranged between 128.92 €/MWh in the Spanish market and 135.92 €/MWh in the Belgian market.
As for daily prices, all the analyzed markets, except the Nord Pool market, exceeded 100 €/MWh during the seven days of the week. The Italian market registered prices above 150 €/MWh throughout the week and on August 13 it reached the highest daily average among the analyzed markets, of 183.80 €/MWh. That same day, the British and French markets registered their highest daily prices of the week, of 175.58 €/MWh and 154.68 €/MWh, respectively.
In the Nord Pool market, the daily price reached 23.05 €/MWh on August 10, the lowest value of the week among the analyzed markets. On August 13, the price rose to 106.04 €/MWh, the weekly maximum of this market.
The rise in TTF gas futures prices and the fall in wind energy production drove the increase in prices in most European electricity markets during the week of August 10. The decline in electricity demand associated with the holiday period contained the rises in the markets of southern Europe. In the case of the Italian market, the sharp fall in demand and the increase in wind energy production allowed prices to drop.
The price forecasts of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting indicate that, in the week of August 17, prices will increase in the German, Belgian and Italian markets. In contrast, they will decrease in the Portuguese, British, Spanish and French markets, in a context of recovery in wind energy production.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, RTE, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front-Month in the ICE market started the week of August 10 with a settlement price of 87.72 $/bbl, 5.0% higher than that of the previous Friday. On August 12, they reached their highest weekly settlement price, of 88.98 $/bbl. On Thursday, August 13, they registered the weekly minimum, of 87.07 $/bbl. On Friday, August 14, the settlement price was 88.52 $/bbl, 5.9% higher than that of the previous Friday.
The lack of an agreement to normalize transit through the Strait of Hormuz and the supply disruptions from the Middle East exerted upward pressure on Brent oil futures prices. In addition, the International Energy Agency revised its global oil supply forecasts for 2026 downward. In contrast, the production increase agreed by OPEC+ for September limited the price rises.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front-Month, on Tuesday, August 11, they reached their lowest weekly settlement price, of 58.73 €/MWh. Prices rebounded in the following sessions and on Friday, August 14, these futures reached their weekly maximum, of 61.42 €/MWh, 11% higher than that of the previous Friday. This was their highest settlement price of the last three weeks.
European gas reserves stood at around 60% of their storage capacity in mid-August. At the same time, the disruptions to transit through the Strait of Hormuz reduced liquefied natural gas supplies from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. This situation kept the tension in the global gas market and favored the increase in TTF gas futures prices.
As for CO2 emission allowances futures in the EEX market for the December 2026 reference contract, on Thursday, August 13, they reached their highest weekly settlement price, of 82.75 €/t. On Friday, August 14, they registered the weekly minimum, of 81.79 €/t, 1.8% lower than that of the previous Friday. Prices moved in a range below 1 €/t throughout the week.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.New virtual assistant of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting
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Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.