AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, May 7, 2025. In April, the main European electricity markets registered their lowest monthly prices since at least November 2024, in most cases below €80/MWh. The decline in gas prices, whose futures reached the lowest monthly average since August 2024, is one of the causes of this decline. In addition, there was an increase in photovoltaic energy production, which registered generation records for an April month in Germany, Spain, Italy and France. Moreover, electricity demand and CO2 prices fell. In contrast, wind energy production declined. Brent futures reached the lowest monthly average since May 2021.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In April 2025, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in most major European electricity markets compared to the same month last year. Germany led the percentage growth with 32%, while Spain registered the smallest increase, 0.2%. Italy and France increased their production by 11% and 23%, respectively. In contrast, Portugal reduced its photovoltaic energy production by 4.4%.
Compared to March 2025, the main European markets increased their energy production in April. Spain, Italy and Germany registered the largest percentage increase, 35% each, while Portugal had the smallest increase, 2.6%. France increased its production by 18%.
Most analysed markets reached all‑time records for solar photovoltaic energy production for an April month. Germany topped the list with 8557 GWh, followed by Spain with 3955 GWh, Italy with 3437 GWh and France with 2853 GWh.
The records for solar photovoltaic energy production reflect the year‑on‑year growth in installed capacity. According to data from Red Eléctrica, between April 2024 and April 2025, Spain added 6134 MW of this technology to the peninsular system, while Portugal added 1123 MW to its solar capacity.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.(*) In Spain and Portugal, data for April 28, the day of the blackout, are not included.
Wind energy production grew year‑on‑year in April 2025 in Portugal, which registered an increase of 3.5%. In contrast, the rest of the main European electricity markets reduced their generation using this technology. Germany registered the largest drop, 41%, while Italy had the smallest decline, 7.3%. Spain cut its production by 7.9% and France, by 18%.
Compared to March 2025, wind energy production fell in all analysed markets. In this case, Spain registered the largest decline, 34%, followed by a 19% drop in Portugal. France had the smallest decrease, 9.9%, while Italy and Germany had decreases of 10% and 14%, respectively.
In April 2025, Portugal reached its second highest volume of wind energy production for an April, with 1184 GWh. In contrast, Germany registered its lowest level for an April since 2016, with 6928 GWh.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.Electricity demand
In April 2025, electricity demand decreased in the main European electricity markets compared to the same period in 2024. The British market registered the largest decline, 6.4%, followed by a 5.1% drop in the French and Belgian markets and a 3.4% drop in the Spanish market. Portugal registered the smallest decline, 0.3%, while Italy and Germany showed declines of 0.5% and 1.8%, respectively.
Compared to March 2025, the main European markets also registered declines in demand. In this case, the French market had the largest drop, 17%, while the Belgian market had the smallest drop, 4.9%. In the Italian, German, Iberian and British markets, decreases ranged from 6.9% in the German market to 14% in the British market.
In most analysed markets, April 2025 was warmer than the same month in 2024. Average temperature increases ranged from 0.2 °C in Spain and Germany to 1.5 °C in Great Britain. In contrast, average temperatures decreased year‑on‑year in Portugal by 0.9 °C, while in Italy they remained similar.
Compared to March 2025, average temperatures were higher in all analysed markets. The Italian market showed the smallest increase, 2.8 °C, while the German market registered the largest increase, 4.2 °C. In the British, Portuguese, Spanish, Belgian and French markets, average temperature increases ranged from 3.0 °C in Great Britain to 3.7 °C in France.
The decrease in demand was favoured by higher temperatures and the fact that, unlike in 2024, Easter was celebrated in April.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
In the month of April 2025, the monthly average price was below €80/MWh in most major European electricity markets. The exceptions were the N2EX market of the United Kingdom and the IPEX market of Italy, which averaged €91.54/MWh and €99.85/MWh, respectively. In contrast, the MIBEL market of Portugal and Spain registered the lowest monthly prices, €25.91/MWh and €26.81/MWh, respectively. In the rest of the European electricity markets analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, the averages ranged from €31.85/MWh in the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries to €77.94/MWh in the EPEX SPOT market of Germany.
Compared to March, average prices decreased in all European electricity markets analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting. The Spanish and Portuguese markets reached the largest percentage price drops, 50% and 51%, respectively. In contrast, the Nordic market registered the smallest decrease, 6.6%. In the other markets, prices fell between 14% in the British market and 45% in the French market.
In contrast, comparing average prices for April with those registered in the same month of 2024, prices rose in almost all analysed markets. The Nordic market was the exception, with a fall of 35%. On the other hand, the Spanish and Portuguese markets registered the highest percentage price rise, 96% in both cases. In the remaining markets, price increases ranged from 15% in the Italian market to 53% in the Belgian market.
As a consequence of these price variations, in April 2025, the Spanish and Portuguese markets reached their lowest averages since May 2024. Italy’s monthly average was the lowest since June 2024, while France’s average was the lowest since July 2024. The German and Dutch markets reached their lowest monthly prices since August 2024. In the case of the British, Belgian and Nordic markets, in April 2025, they registered their lowest averages since September, October and November 2024, respectively.
In April 2025, the fall in gas and CO2 emission allowance prices, the increase in solar energy production and the fall in electricity demand compared to the previous month favoured the fall in European electricity market prices.
On the other hand, in April 2025, gas prices were higher than in April 2024. Wind energy production fell in most markets. In addition, in the Iberian Peninsula, solar energy production also declined. These factors contributed to the year‑on‑year price increases in most European electricity markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market registered a monthly average price of $66.46/bbl in the month of April 2025. According to data analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this monthly average was the lowest since May 2021. This value was 7.0% lower than the average reached by March 2025 Front‑Month futures, $71.47/bbl, and 25% lower than that of Front‑Month futures traded in April 2024, $89.00/bbl.
In April, the evolution of Brent oil futures prices was strongly influenced by US policies. The temporary suspension of tariffs for some countries and sanctions on Iranian oil exports had an upward influence on prices. However, trade tensions continued, increasing demand concerns and pushing prices lower. In addition, expectations of production increases by OPEC+ also contributed to the price decline.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, the average value registered during the month of April 2025 for these futures was €35.41/MWh. According to data analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this is the lowest monthly average since August 2024. Compared to the average of Front‑Month futures traded in March, €41.81/MWh, the April average fell by 16%. Compared to the Front‑Month futures traded in the month of April 2024, when the average price was €29.04/MWh, there was an increase of 22%.
In the month of April, demand concerns caused by US tariff policies, as well as rising temperatures, exerted their downward influence on TTF gas futures prices. The easing of storage targets for next winter for EU member states also contributed to the price decline. On the other hand, supply levels allowed European reserves to increase.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2025, they reached an average price of €65.37/t in April. According to the data analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this monthly price fell by 6.7% compared to the March average, €70.03/t. Compared to the April 2024 average, €68.68/t, the April 2025 average was 4.8% lower.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe and energy storage
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Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
