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Price forecasting with stochasticity

Price forecasting with stochasticity

Probabilistic market price forecasting to guide strategic decisions


AleaSoft offers mid-term market price forecasts with stochasticity with a horizon of up to three years, which are probabilistic forecasts of the average price over a given period. These forecasts make it possible to analyse the impact of the stochasticity of the explanatory variables on the mid-term price forecasts.

To do this, price forecasts are calculated using data on the distribution of the explanatory variables and their associated probabilities. For each of the explanatory variables, a sufficiently large number of random forecasts are calculated. These simulations are used to calculate the corresponding market price simulations. From these, percentiles of the price distribution and probability distributions are calculated for each monthly, quarterly and annual commodity traded on futures markets within the forecast horizon. For each period, the distribution includes a reference to the most recent prices traded on futures markets.

The Alea methodology, which combines Artificial Intelligence, time series and statistical models, is used to produce these forecasts.

Price forecasts with stochasticity are an essential input for energy trading, futures contracts, hedging, risk management, optimisation and production planning for both energy producers and consumers. Therefore, these forecasts are useful for all players in the energy sector, such as utilities, traders, IPPs, renewable energy developers, retailers, large consumers and electro-intensive consumers.

Example of price forecast of Spain with stochasticity

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