• English
    • Spanish
    • French
    • German
    • Italian

Energy forecasting consulting and application cases

AleaSoft generates forecasts in the energy sector for the short, medium and long term horizons. Over the course of 20 years these forecasts of prices, demand, photovoltaic or wind production have been used as products or as services, constituting the fundamental input of a set of cases of applications, solutions or consultancies applied to various energy sectors such as utilities , traders, renewable developers, large consumers, traders, investment funds and banks.

PPA services and synergies

One of the most important aspects when defining a PPA is the value of the energy that is bought or sold. AleaSoft offers a forecast report with a 30-year horizon. In this report the price is broken down on an hourly basis, and the rest of the variables that determine the market price are broken down with annual granularity. The report also contains an explanatory document with the vision of the 30-year electricity market with the incorporation of renewables and the shutdowns of thermal groups. This long-term forecast report is the basis for consulting on the entire process of risk identification, definition of agreements and termsheets, negotiation and closing of PPAs. Aleasoft helps its clients define and execute the best financing strategy and search for synergies with other companies or market agents.

Price forecasting for portfolio valuation and audits

In a short time, renewable portfolios have been growing, constituting a very important asset. The valuation of the portfolio that can be carried out in a financial audit process depends on the forecast of electricity market prices. AleaSoft offers price forecast reports for portfolio valuation and audits, supported by long-term forecast models with a scientific basis, with consistent results and quality demonstrated in 20 years of experience.

Risk and coverage management

When buying or selling energy in the futures markets or through a bilateral contract or a PPA, it is necessary to have the risk calculation of the portfolio at all times. Hedging is necessary to reduce portfolio risk. The medium and short-term forecast services with the associated probabilities are a fundamental input for risk assessment. This service is essential for all agents who buy or sell energy such as traders, utilities, marketers or large consumers.

Offers generation

Traders who buy or sell energy in the day-ahead or futures markets need a set of recommendations for making bids. Good market forecasting is a necessary input to establish the recommendations with which the best buy or sell offers can be made. Very short-term forecasts are also necessary to participate in intraday and imbalance markets.

 

Product settlement

Electro‑intensive industries and large consumers need to obtain their energy supply on the spot market, in the futures markets or through PPAs. To buy or settle products for future months, quarters or years it is necessary to have a good scientific‑based forecast.

Optimisation and planning

Over the course of 20 years of history, AleaSoft has developed projects for the automatic optimisation of production management or efficient planning of electricity generation facilities.

Application for TSOs

AleaSoft offers a specific application for TSO, which is used by the operators of the most important electrical systems in Europe. This application allows making forecasts in the short, very short, medium, long and very long term. In addition to TSOs, it can be used by utilities and distributors. This type of application is essential to calculate energy consumption in Smart Cities.

Client portfolio

AleaSoft offers an application for reatilers that helps to plan the energy needs of the client portfolio. The product offers consumption forecasts for the client portfolio by rates. Customer to customer or in an aggregate way. In addition to being able to be used by marketers, it can be used by distribution companies.

Simulation and study of future scenarios

One of the fundamental problems for future decision making in energy markets is given by the variability of future scenarios. The applications and services offered by AleaSoft are associated with the future forecasts of the fundamental variables, as well as their variability to calculate the probabilities of future prices and their variables such as demand and renewable energy productions. The outputs can be probability distribution graphs, percentile tables or massive simulations of the market price or associated variables.

Expert reports

AleaSoft offers technical and expert reports for consulting cases related to arbitration and mediation issues in the electricity or gas markets.

Strategic analysis

AleaSoft’s forecasts are the basis for a set of consulting services related to tools, methods and processes for decision-making. These forecasts help define the best strategy to approach new markets, renewable energy projects, as well as define a supply, consumption and pricing strategy.

Data monitoring

The monitoring web application allows you to view the data that most influence the market price, such as demands, renewable productions and meteorological data. This type of service is necessary for decision making in short- and mid-term horizons. Traders and in general all agents who buy and sell in the market need these platforms for monitoring real past and present data, as well as the corresponding forecasts of prices, demands and renewable energy productions. This type of application is also useful for the monitoring of a Smart City by a TSO or a distribution company.

Webinars and training

At AleaSoft we are experts in the fields of statistical models and forecasts related to energy markets, renewable energy, project financing and PPA.

We can organize training in face-to-face, distance or webinar format according to your needs.