AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, April 29, 2024. In the fourth week of April, prices continued to recover in the main European electricity markets. Even so, most markets registered negative prices for a few hours, especially on Sunday, April 28. In the MIBEL market, weekly prices were again the lowest for the twelfth consecutive week. Portugal and Spain reached their all‑time record photovoltaic energy production on April 23 and 24, respectively. Solar energy production increased in most markets, while wind energy production fell in most markets.
Solar photovoltaic, solar thermoelectric and wind energy production
In the week of April 22, solar energy production increased in most major European electricity markets compared to the previous week. The German market registered the largest increase, 35%, reversing the downward trend of the previous week. The Spanish market, with the smallest increase, 0.6%, continued to rise for the fourth consecutive week. On the other hand, in the French market, solar energy production fell by 22%, reversing the upward trend of the previous three weeks.
During the fourth week of April, Spain and Portugal broke the historical record for daily solar photovoltaic energy production. Portugal reached this milestone on April 23, generating 18 GWh using this technology. One day later, on April 24, the Spanish market generated 174 GWh using photovoltaic energy, which is the highest value in history.
For the week of April 29, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy production forecasts, it will decrease in Spain and Italy. However, it will increase in Germany.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
In the week of April 22, wind energy production decreased in most major European markets compared to the previous week, reversing the upward trend of the previous week. Declines ranged from 4.8% in the Spanish market to 39% in the German market. Out of the analyzed markets, only the Portuguese market registered an increase in wind energy generation, for the second consecutive week, this time by 24%.
In the week of April 29, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy production forecasts, it will increase in Germany and Italy. However, it will decrease in the Iberian Peninsula and France.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Electricity demand
In the week of April 22, variations in electricity demand in the main European electricity markets compared to the previous week showed no clear trend. In some markets, electricity demand increased, continuing the upward trend of the previous two weeks. In Great Britain, France and Spain, demand increased by 8.3%, 6.4% and 2.6%, respectively. In the Netherlands, demand increased by 5.2%, reversing the downward trend of the previous five weeks. In the other analyzed markets, demand fell between 0.4% in Belgium and 4.2% in Italy. In Portugal, demand declined for the fourth consecutive week, this time by 3.0%. The declines in the Italian and Portuguese markets were partly related to the celebrations of Liberation Day in Italy and Freedom Day in Portugal, both of which fell on April 25.
During the fourth week of April, changes in average temperatures were also heterogeneous. In Southern Europe and Great Britain, average temperatures decreased from 0.8 °C to 2.3 °C. In France, average temperatures were similar to those of the week of April 15. In the rest of the analyzed markets, average temperatures increased between 0.5 °C and 0.8 °C.
For the week of April 29, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts, electricity demand will increase only in Portugal. In Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, France, Belgium, Spain and Great Britain, demand will decrease.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.
European electricity markets
In the fourth week of April, prices in the main European electricity markets increased compared to the previous week. The EPEX SPOT market of France and the MIBEL market of Spain and Portugal had the largest percentage rises, 181%, 402% and 419%, respectively. In contrast, the EPEX SPOT market of Germany registered the smallest percentage increase, 9.3%. In the other markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices increased between 12% in IPEX market of Italy and 32% in the EPEX SPOT market of Belgium.
In the week of April 22, weekly averages exceeded €60/MWh in most analyzed European electricity markets. The exceptions were the Portuguese and Spanish markets, with averages of €25.16/MWh and €25.57/MWh, respectively. Once again, the MIBEL market had the lowest average prices of the week for the twelfth consecutive week. In contrast, the Italian market registered the highest weekly average, €102.58/MWh. In the rest of the markets, prices ranged from €60.12/MWh in the French market to €86.36/MWh in the N2EX market of the United Kingdom.
Regarding hourly prices, despite the increase in weekly average prices, on Sunday, April 28, most analyzed European markets registered negative prices. The exceptions were the British, Italian and Nordic markets. The German, Belgian and Dutch markets also registered negative prices on April 27. In addition to Sunday, the Portuguese market had negative prices on April 22, while the Spanish market registered negative prices on April 22 and 23. The German, Belgian, French and Dutch markets reached the lowest hourly price, ‑€65.06/MWh, on Sunday, April 28, from 14:00 to 15:00.
During the week of April 22, the fall in wind energy production in most analyzed European markets, as well as the increase in demand in some cases, had an upward influence on European electricity market prices. In the case of the French market, moreover, solar energy production fell.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that prices in most analyzed European electricity markets might fall in the first week of May, influenced by declining demand. In addition, wind energy production might increase in markets such as Germany and Italy. However, MIBEL market prices might continue to increase with the fall in wind energy production in the Iberian Peninsula.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.
Brent, fuels and CO2
Settlement prices of Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market remained below $90/bbl during the fourth week of April. On Monday, April 22, these futures reached their weekly minimum settlement price, $87.00/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 3.4% lower than the previous Monday and the lowest since late March. Subsequently, prices increased. As a result, on Friday, April 26, the futures registered their weekly maximum settlement price, $89.50/bbl. This price was 2.5% higher than the previous Friday.
In the fourth week of April, the release of inflation data in the United States exerted its influence on prices. In addition, tension in the Middle East and the decline in US crude oil stocks contributed to the price increase.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, in the fourth week of April, settlement prices remained below €30/MWh. The downward trend started at the end of the previous week continued until Tuesday, April 23. On that day, these futures reached their weekly minimum settlement price, €28.84/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 13% lower than the previous Tuesday. In contrast, on Thursday, April 25, the futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €29.77/MWh. This price was still 8.8% lower than the previous Thursday. In the last session of the fourth week of April, prices fell again, settling at €28.89/MWh.
In the fourth week of April, lower gas supplies from Norway exerted an upward influence on TTF gas futures prices. However, forecasts of milder temperatures, higher gas supplies from Algeria in April and high levels of European reserves prevented prices from exceeding €30/MWh.
Regarding CO2 emission allowances futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2024, settlement prices remained below €70/t during the fourth week of April. On Tuesday, April 23, these futures reached their weekly minimum settlement price, €65.68/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 11% lower than the previous Tuesday. In contrast, on Thursday, April 25, these futures registered their weekly maximum settlement price, €68.39/t. This price was still 4.4% lower than the previous Thursday. The settlement price for the last session of the fourth week of April was €66.92/t, 2.7% lower than the previous Friday.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe and the energy transition
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting has added new forward curve observatories to Alea Energy DataBase, its online platform for the visualization and analysis of data related to energy markets. In addition to the new observatories, the platform contains price, demand and renewable energy production observatories for the main European electricity markets, as well as fuels and macroeconomic data observatories. This information is a reliable source for both the different players in the energy sector and journalists specialized in the energy sector. For players operating in electricity markets and gas markets, Alea Energy DataBase provides the option to set up alerts useful for energy trading.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
