AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, July 21, 2025. During the third week of July, electricity prices in the main European electricity markets remained similar to those of the previous week, with slight increases in most cases. Solar photovoltaic energy production reached a historic record in Spain on July 16, while Portugal registered its highest value for a July day on July 14. Electricity demand rose in several markets, and although CO₂ emission allowance prices increased at the beginning of the week, they remained at around the same level as the previous week, along with gas prices.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
During the week of July 14, solar photovoltaic energy production increased compared to the previous week in some of the main European electricity markets. The increases ranged from 5.3% in the German market to 10% in the Portuguese market. The Spanish market continued its upward trend for the second consecutive week, with a 7.0% increase. In addition, Spain reached a historic record for solar photovoltaic energy production, generating 237 GWh on July 16. Two days earlier, on July 14, the Portuguese market set a new all‑time high for solar photovoltaic energy production on a July day, reaching 30 GWh. In contrast, the French and Italian markets reversed the growth seen the previous week, with decreases of 18% and 0.3%, respectively.
For the week of July 21, according to solar energy forecasts from AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, solar photovoltaic energy production will decline in the German, Spanish, and Italian markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.During the week of July 14, wind energy production increased in some of the main European markets compared to the previous week. The Portuguese and Spanish markets reversed the declines seen the previous week, with increases of 75% and 4.8%, respectively. In the French market, wind energy production grew for the fifth consecutive week, rising by 22%. In contrast, wind energy production declined in the Italian and German markets. In Italy, production fell by 27%, reversing the increase from the previous week, while in Germany, it dropped for the third week in a row, this time by 21%.
During the week of July 21, according to wind energy forecasts from AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, wind energy production will increase in the German and Spanish markets. On the other hand, it will decrease in the French, Portuguese, and Italian markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.Electricity demand
During the week of July 14, electricity demand increased in most of the main European markets. The increases ranged from 0.1% in the French market to 7.0% in the Italian market. In France, the rise was more moderate due to the celebration of the French National Day, a national holiday celebrated on Monday, July 14. In contrast, the Portuguese, Belgian, and German markets registered week‑over‑week declines of 3.4%, 2.9%, and 1.1%, respectively.
At the same time, average temperatures rose across most of the analyzed markets, with increases ranging from 1.1°C in Spain to 2.4°C in Belgium. However, in Great Britain, average temperatures fell by 0.7°C compared to the previous week.
For the week of July 21, according to demand forecasts from AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, electricity demand will rise in the Italian, Portuguese, and British markets. Although, demand will decline in the Belgian, Spanish, French, and German markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
In the third week of July, average prices in most major European electricity markets were higher than the previous week. The exceptions were the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries and the EPEX SPOT market in Belgium, where weekly averages fell by 1.3% and 2.5%, respectively. The EPEX SPOT market in France registered the largest percentage increase, with a 22% rise. This price spike was concentrated in the early part of the week, while prices declined over the weekend, with Sunday marking the lowest price of the week among the main European markets. On the other hand, the EPEX SPOT market in the Netherlands registered the smallest increase, at just 0.1%. In the other markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices rose between 0.2% in the MIBEL market of Portugal and 8.8% in the IPEX market of Italy.
During the week of July 14, most European electricity markets maintained weekly averages above €75/MWh. The exceptions were the Nordic and French markets, with average prices of €33.12/MWh and €60.89/MWh, respectively. The IPEX market of Italy registered the highest weekly average, at €117.87/MWh. In the other markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices ranged from €77.80/MWh in the Iberian market to €95.53/MWh in the British market.
Regarding daily prices, on Sunday, July 20, the French market registered the lowest daily average among the analyzed markets, at €20.58/MWh. In contrast, the Italian market reached the highest daily average of the week, at €122.52/MWh on Tuesday, July 15. In this market, prices remained above €110/MWh throughout the entire week.
As for hourly prices, the Belgian, German, Dutch, Spanish, and Portuguese electricity markets registered negative values during some hours in the third week of July. On Sunday, July 20, between 16:00 and 17:00, the Iberian market in Spain and Portugal registered the lowest hourly price of the week, at ‑€1.01/MWh.
During the week of July 14, the increase in electricity demand across most of the analyzed markets, along with the rise in CO₂ emission allowance prices at the beginning of the week compared to the previous one, contributed to higher electricity prices in many of the main European markets. This trend was also influenced by lower contributions from solar and wind energy production in some markets.
Price forecasts from AleaSoft Energy Forecasting indicate that in the fourth week of July, electricity prices will decrease in most major European markets, driven by lower demand and an increase in wind energy production in some of these markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month on the ICE market declined in most sessions of the third week of July. The exception was Thursday, July 17, when the settlement price rose by 1.5% compared to the previous day. On that day, the futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price of $69.52/bbl. The previous day, after a 0.3% drop from Tuesday, July 15, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price of $68.52/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was 1.5% lower than the previous Friday’s settlement price.
The decline in Brent oil futures during the third week of July was mainly influenced by uncertainty surrounding sanctions on Russian oil. Later in the week, the U.S. President granted Russia a 50-day window before implementing new sanctions, easing fears of immediate supply disruptions and reducing upward pressure on prices. Additionally, trade tensions driven by potential new tariffs from the United States on strategic partners such as the European Union and Japan raised concerns about weaker global demand.
As for TTF gas futures for the Front‑Month on the ICE market, they began the third week of July with prices similar to those of the previous Friday. On Monday, July 14, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price of €35.45/MWh. From that point on, prices declined progressively, except on July 16, when they rose by 1.1% compared to the previous day. On Friday, July 18, futures hit their weekly minimum settlement price of €33.60/MWh, which was 5.5% lower than the previous Friday, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting. Despite the fluctuations throughout the week, the average weekly price remained practically stable compared to the previous week, with a slight decrease of 0.1%.
The increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply in Europe, driven by higher imports and moderate demand in Asia contributed to the drop in TTF gas futures prices during the week of July 14.
In the EEX market, CO₂ emission allowance futures for the December 2025 reference contract began the week with a settlement price 0.2% lower than the previous Friday. On Tuesday, July 15, the price rose by 1.5% compared to the day before, reaching the weekly maximum settlement price of €71.51/t. From then on, prices began a downward trend that continued until Friday, July 18, when they settled at their weekly minimum of €69.89/t. According to data analyzed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 0.9% lower than the previous Friday’s settlement price.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis for renewable and energy storage project financing
From AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, through its AleaGreen division, offers long‑term price forecasts for all European electricity markets. These forecasts are essential for the planning, valuation, and financing of renewable energy projects.
In addition, the AleaStorage division provides specialized studies for energy storage projects across European markets. These studies aim to analyze revenue and profitability, assess business models and operational strategies, and support decision‑making and access to financing.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting has currently launched a special promotion for both services during the month of July, offering favorable conditions that enable developers and investors to access key tools for analysis and decision‑making in the current market context.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
