European electricity market prices fell in October, influenced by gas

AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, November 3, 2022. Prices in European electricity markets fell considerably during October due to falling gas prices. In some electricity markets, the monthly average price ended up being even lower than in the same month of the previous year. Italy’s IPEX market registered its lowest daily price since the beginning of August 2021 to date.

European electricity markets

During the month of October 2022, the prices of the European electricity markets analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting were around €147/MWh. The Italian IPEX market registered the highest price of €211.50/MWh. On the other hand, the Nordic Nord Pool market registered, as usual, the lowest price of €73.54/MWh. In the other markets, prices were between €125/MWh and €180/MWh.

In terms of monthly variation, last October represented a generalised decrease in all markets compared to the prices registered in September 2022. Price reductions ranged from 10% in the MIBEL market in Spain and Portugal to 65% in the Nord Pool market in the Nordic countries.

A price of €100.58/MWh was reached in the Italian IPEX market on October 29. This figure represents the lowest daily price of the year in this market, and the lowest daily register since August 8, 2021.

However, the year‑on‑year analysis shows a more heterogeneous behaviour. The IPEX market of Italy, the EPEX SPOT market of Belgium and the Netherlands, the MIBEL market of Spain and Portugal and the N2EX of the United Kingdom registered decreases compared to October 2021, mainly in the last two markets, where decreases reached 35%. On the other hand, the EPEX SPOT markets in France and Germany, and the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries ended the month with higher prices than a year ago, most notably in the Nordic market, where the increase amounted to 29%.

In the case of the MIBEL market, where the gas price cap is in force, even if the adjustment price established in Royal Decree-law 10/2022 is considered, the final price paid by consumers ended up being lower than in October 2021.

AleaSoft - Monthly electricity market prices EuropeSource: Prepared by Aleasoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.

The main cause of this behaviour during the month of October was gas prices, which maintained a clearly downward trend during the month. On October 1, TTF gas had a price of €163.32/MWh on the spot market, and during the month prices fell to end on October 31 at €32.97/MWh. This represents an 80% drop in gas prices, which was the determining factor in the behaviour of electricity prices.

AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe and the renewable energy projects financing.

AleaGreen, the long‑term division of Alea Business Software S.L, are specialist in long-term price curves forecasting characterised by equilibrium and consistency. These forecasts are essential for the valuation of renewable assets, in the financing of renewable energy projects and in Due Diligence.

AleaSoft - MIBEL price forecast 15 years OMIP curveLong-term price forecast for the Iberian electricity market MIBEL made at the end of October 2010 by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting..
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting and OMIP.

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Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.

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