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Solar energy defies autumn and production increases in European markets

AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, 31 October 2022. In the fourth week of October, solar energy production increased compared to the previous week in all analysed European markets. The largest increase of 21% was registered in the Spanish market, followed by a 19% increase in the Portuguese market. In the French and German markets, weekly wind energy production also reached higher values than in the previous week. In France, wind energy production of 24 October was the second highest since April.

AleaSoft - Solar panels

Solar photovoltaic and thermoelectric energy production and wind energy production

During the fourth week of October, solar energy production increased compared to the previous week in all European markets analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting. The largest increases were in the Spanish and Portuguese markets, 21% and 19% respectively. In the remaining markets, increases ranged from 1.2% in the French market to 6.9% in the Italian market.

Comparing the solar energy production of the first thirty days of October with that of the same days in 2021, it also increased in all analysed markets. The largest increase was in the Italian market, 16%, followed by the Portuguese market, 15%. In the German and French markets, solar energy production increased by 11%, while the smallest increase, of 3.6%, was in the Spanish market.

For the first week of November, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting‘s solar energy forecasting indicates a significant decrease in Italy, while solar energy production in Germany could increase slightly.

AleaSoft - Solar photovoltaic thermosolar energy production electricity EuropeSource: Prepared by Aleasoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
AleaSoft - Solar photovoltaic production profile EuropeSource: Prepared by Aleasoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.

During the week of October 24, the behaviour of wind energy production compared to the previous week varied from market to market. In the German market, it increased by 18%, while the increase in the French market was limited to 0.6%. On the other hand, in the Italian, Spanish and Portuguese markets, production with this technology fell by 14%, 20% and 22% respectively.

Comparing wind energy production in the first 30 days of October with the same period last year, the German and Italian markets registered decreases of 14% and 38% respectively. In all other markets, wind energy production increased. The largest increase, of 35%, was in the Portuguese market. In the Spanish market the increase was 23%, while in the French market it was 7.4%.

In terms of hourly wind energy production, in France, in the first hour of Monday October 24, a production of 13 048.25 MWh was registered, the second highest since the first half of April, after the 13 109.25 MWh registered in the early hours of October 1. French daily production of Monday, October 24, at 244 GWh, was also the second highest since April 7, after that of the first day of the month.

For the week of October 31, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting‘s wind energy forecasting indicates a decrease on the Iberian Peninsula. In contrast, significant increases in wind energy production are expected in the rest of the markets.

AleaSoft - Wind energy production electricity EuropeSource: Prepared by Aleasoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.

AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe and the renewable energy projects financing

Hybrid systems that combine different renewable technologies, such as wind and photovoltaic energy, and energy storage, such as batteries and green hydrogen, can compensate for the variability of renewable energy production and will be a key element in the energy transition to an emission‑free system. AleaSoft Energy Forecasting reports for hybrid systems enable the development of operational strategies to maximise revenue from hybrid systems. For this purpose, simulations of hourly market prices are taken into account as well as the plant’s own characteristics in terms of renewable power and storage capacity.

Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.

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