AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, April 1, 2025. In the first quarter of 2025, prices rose in most major European electricity markets. In several markets, the quarterly average price was the highest since the second quarter of 2023. One of the main drivers of this rise was the increase in gas prices, whose quarterly average was also the highest since that date. Rising CO2 prices and electricity demand also contributed to the upward price evolution. Solar photovoltaic energy registered record generation levels for a first quarter in the main European markets, while wind energy production declined year‑on‑year.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the first quarter of 2025, solar photovoltaic energy production increased year‑on‑year in the main European markets, with increases ranging from 13% in Spain to 33% in Germany and France. This growth allowed all these markets to reach record levels of photovoltaic energy generation for a first quarter: Germany with 11 238 GWh, Spain with 8322 GWh, Italy with 5276 GWh, France with 5092 GWh and Portugal with 1011 GWh.
In addition, solar photovoltaic energy production also exceeded that of the previous quarter in the markets analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, with increases ranging from 15% in Spain and Portugal to 81% in Germany.
During the first three months of 2025, 1077 MW of new solar photovoltaic energy capacity was added in the Spanish mainland system. In Portugal, up to February, the installed capacity of this technology increased by 112 MW compared to December 2024.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.Wind energy production registered a year‑on‑year decline in the first quarter of 2025 in the main European markets, with drops ranging from 2.6% in the Portuguese market to 29% in the German market.
However, when comparing production in the first quarter of 2025 with production in the fourth quarter of 2024, most markets analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting registered increases. The largest increase was in the Spanish market, 16%, while the smallest increase was in Portugal, 2.9%. In contrast, in Germany, wind energy production decreased by 13% compared to the previous quarter.
Between January and March 2025, 111 MW of wind energy were installed in Mainland Spain. Meanwhile, in Portugal, up to the end of February, the installed capacity of this technology remained unchanged compared to December 2024.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.Electricity demand
In the first quarter of 2025, electricity demand increased compared to the same period of the previous year in the main European markets. The French market registered the largest increase, 5.6%, followed by the Portuguese and British markets, which registered increases of 3.7% and 3.5% in each case. Demand increased by 1.1% in the Spanish market and by 2.5% in the German market. The Belgian and Italian markets showed the smallest growth, 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively.
Compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, demand increased during the first quarter of 2025 in all analysed European markets. The French market registered the largest increase, 14%. It was followed by the Iberian market, with an increase of 8.2% in Portugal and 7.1% in Spain. The Italian, German, Belgian and British markets registered increases ranging from 4.0% in Italy to 5.9% in Great Britain.
In the first quarter of 2025, Portugal reached a record by registering its highest quarterly electricity demand to date, 14 TWh. Meanwhile, Great Britain, Germany and France reached their highest figures since the first quarter of 2022, which were 66 TWh, 124 TWh and 130 TWh, respectively.
The year‑on‑year evolution of average temperatures showed a downward trend when comparing the first quarters of 2025 and 2024. Average temperatures decreased in all analysed markets, with decreases ranging from 0.5 °C in Italy to 2.0 °C in Belgium and Germany.
Compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, average temperatures in the first quarter of 2025 decreased in all analysed markets. These decreases ranged from 2.8 °C in Italy to 3.4 °C in Spain.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
In the first quarter of 2025, the quarterly average price exceeded €85/MWh in most major European electricity markets. The exception was the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries, where the average was €45.50/MWh. The N2EX market of the United Kingdom and the IPEX market of Italy registered the highest quarterly prices, €125.50/MWh and €137.57/MWh, respectively. In the other markets analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, the averages ranged from €85.12/MWh in the MIBEL market of Portugal to €111.94/MWh in the EPEX SPOT market of Germany.
Compared to the previous quarter, in the first quarter of 2025, prices increased in most European electricity markets analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting. The exceptions were the Spanish and Portuguese markets, with a quarterly average price drop of 10% in both cases. In contrast, the Nordic market registered the largest increase, 47%. The other markets registered increases ranging from 7.8% in the Dutch market to 15% in the British and French markets.
Comparing average prices in the first quarter of 2025 with those registered in the same quarter of 2024, prices also rose in most analysed markets. In this case, the exception was the Nordic market, with a 22% drop. In contrast, the Spanish and Portuguese markets registered the largest rises, 90% and 91%, respectively. In the other markets, increases ranged from 50% in the Italian market to 67% in the British market.
As a result of these price increases, the average for the first quarter of 2025 was the highest since the second quarter of 2023 in the German, Belgian, British, French, Italian and Dutch markets. For the Nordic market, the average for the first quarter of 2025 was the highest since the second quarter of 2024.
In the first quarter of 2025, higher gas and CO2 emission allowance prices and increased demand in almost all markets led to higher prices in European electricity markets compared to the previous quarter. In the case of the German market, moreover, wind energy production fell.
Compared to the first quarter of 2024, gas and CO2 emission allowance prices also rose. In addition, electricity demand increased in almost all markets and wind energy production decreased. As a result of these factors, most markets registered year‑on‑year price increases of more than 50%.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market registered a quarterly average price of $74.98/bbl in the first quarter of 2025. This value was 1.3% higher than the previous quarter’s Front‑Month futures price, $74.01/bbl. However, it was 8.3% lower than the average price corresponding to the Front‑Month futures traded in the first quarter of 2024, $81.76/bbl.
Concerns about the evolution of global oil demand, caused by US tariff policies, led to a year‑on‑year decline in Brent oil futures prices in the first quarter of 2025. The easing of instability in the Middle East during the latest truce in the Israel‑Hamas conflict, as well as the possibility of a peace agreement for Ukraine, also exerted a downward influence on prices. In addition, the prospect of increased production in countries such as the United States and Iraq, as well as the planned OPEC+ production increases for the coming quarters, also weighed on prices. However, sanctions on exports from Iran and Venezuela, as well as stimulus to the Chinese economy, helped to limit the decline in prices, which on average were slightly higher than the previous quarter.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, the average value registered during the first quarter of 2025 for these futures was €46.77/MWh. Compared to the average price of the Front‑Month futures traded in the previous quarter, €43.34/MWh, the average increased by 7.9%. Compared to the Front‑Month futures traded in the same quarter of 2024, when the average price was €27.56/MWh, there was a 70% rise. As a consequence of these increases, in the first quarter of 2025, the average price was the highest since the second quarter of 2023.
In the first quarter of 2025, low temperatures and the end of Russian gas supplies via Ukraine led to higher prices. Concerns about low European reserve levels also contributed to the increase in TTF gas futures prices. However, talks to end the war in Ukraine exerted a downward influence on prices, with the possibility that the end of the war could lead to an increase in Russian gas supplies. At the end of the quarter, milder temperatures also contributed to limiting the rise in the quarterly average price.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2025, they reached an average price of €75.17/t in the first quarter of 2025, 10% higher than the previous quarter’s average, which was €68.10/t. Compared to the average for the same quarter of 2024, €63.90/t, the average for the first quarter of 2025 was 18% higher.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on energy storage
AleaStorage division of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting provides forecasting reports for the optimisation and management of energy storage systems. AleaStorage services include revenue and profitability calculation for systems with energy storage, as well as optimal battery sizing for hybrid systems with renewable energy. These services are available for stand‑alone battery projects, hybrid systems of renewable technologies, such as wind and solar energy, with batteries, hybrid self‑consumption systems with batteries and other hybrid systems, such as hydraulics, reversible pumping and cogeneration.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
