AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, September 25, 2025. Interview by Víctor Delgado, from Revista Energética, with Antonio Delgado Rigal, PhD in Artificial Intelligence, founder and CEO of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
A year after the update of the NECP 2023‑2030, how do you see the rollout in Spain in terms of meeting its targets?
Spain is making rapid progress in renewable energy, especially photovoltaic and wind energy, but the pace in grids, storage and interconnections is a bottleneck.
The distribution and transmission grids must expand significantly to accommodate all renewable energy, storage and new demand projects required.
The capacity of interconnections with France must be much higher, as set out in the NECP.
We must continue moving forward with modernisation and digitalisation of the grids and put in place new regulatory measures to prevent the blackout of April from happening again
What effects will the approval of Royal Decree‑law 7/2025 on urgent measures to strengthen the Spanish electricity system have, or is it already having?
Royal Decree‑law 7/2025 was not ratified and was repealed by Congress, so its measures are not in force. Several of the needs it sought to address (greater grid resilience, system services, regulatory adjustments to the remuneration regime) are being redirected through other ordinary regulatory channels. In short, the objectives remain, but without that specific instrument.
In any case, we consider the measures aimed at promoting storage, flexibility and electrification necessary, as they are essential to move forward in the energy transition.
How has the electricity sector changed after the blackout? What were its most immediate effects?
The blackout of April 28, 2025, highlighted the importance of frequency stability, interconnections and fast response. According to Red Eléctrica and ENTSO‑E, Spain did not experience a massive supply loss, although it was necessary to activate defence measures and carry out a detailed analysis of the causes. This has helped to strengthen procedures and improve regional coordination. The lesson learned is the need for more flexibility (demand and storage), automatisms and a more robust grid.
Which electricity market vectors, such as storage, grids or interconnections, do you consider a priority to integrate wind and photovoltaic energy sustainably?
The number one priority is the grids. The massive integration of renewable energy requires accelerating the implementation of the 2021‑2026 plan, including its adjustments, and launching the 2025‑2030 plan as soon as possible. Today there are more than 26 GW of wind and photovoltaic energy projects that have applied for grid access and connection permits and are underway, which reflects grid saturation. Without reinforcements, it will be impossible to harness the full photovoltaic and wind energy potential.
The second priority is international interconnections. Spain remains at around 2‑3% of interconnection capacity with France, far below the European target of 15% by 2030. A more interconnected system will allow renewable surpluses to be exported, curtailments to be reduced and security of supply to be improved.
The third priority is storage. The NECP sets a target of 22.5 GW of storage by 2030, compared to the current 5.7 GW, mainly hydro pumping and solar thermal. It is essential to accelerate the deployment of both batteries and new pumped‑storage projects, to shift solar surpluses to higher demand hours and provide balancing, inertia and voltage control services.
Is the development of green hydrogen as paralysed as some claim or are we only seeing a temporary slowdown before its definitive rollout?
It is a selective slowdown, not a structural halt. The second auctions of the European Hydrogen Bank awarded €992 million to 15 projects, with Spain leading in number. At national level, the AaaS (Auction as‑a‑Service) scheme allocated €377 million to 485 MW of electrolysers. Challenges remain, such as ensuring competitive renewable electricity, industrial offtake contracts and speeding up permitting, but the investment signal is there. Spain maintains its target of 12 GW of electrolysis by 2030, and the development will depend more on costs and European regulation than on a lack of investor interest.
How do you assess the European electricity market’s adaptation to new vectors such as wind energy, batteries, hydrogen and electric vehicles?
The market design reform, in force since July 2024, improves frameworks for PPA and bilateral CfDs (Contracts for Difference) and standardises capacity mechanisms. This reduces perceived volatility for consumers and provides certainty for renewable and flexibility investments. The challenge now lies in national implementation: schedules, rules and congestion management.
In a scenario with renewable surpluses and a low marginal price, what role does active demand management play, and what tools enable better use?
It is key. The active demand response service (SRAD for its acronym in Spanish) and demand aggregation allow consumption to be shifted, curtailments to be reduced and purchases to be made at a lower price. With the switch to 15‑minute markets starting on October 1 (MTU‑15) and the intraday markets, optimisation requires sub‑hourly coordinated forecasts of demand, prices and distributed generation, in addition to scheduling algorithms for industry and charging.
Do you think recurrent episodes of negative prices will continue? What do your forecasts show?
Yes, they will continue to be recurrent at weekends and holidays with high photovoltaic energy production and low demand, and at hours with local congestions. In 2024, Spain already registered hours with negative prices and in 2025 the frequency has increased in spring‑summer. In the future, the deployment of storage and demand management will tend to shorten their frequency.
What is your diagnosis of the development of the capacity market in Spain and its effect on the deployment of storage?
The European framework has already normalised capacity mechanisms, with established examples in the United Kingdom, Italy and France. In Spain, although plans and design documents have been published, and Royal Decree‑law 7/2025 recognised the public utility of storage, effective deployment of auctions with clear rules for batteries is still missing: minimum discharge duration, availability criteria, stress tests and penalty regimes. A credible, multi‑annual calendar aligned with the NECP will be decisive to guarantee the bankability of storage and speed up its deployment.
From AleaSoft’s perspective, which elements of the European energy market reform are encouraging renewable investment?
The European electricity market reform includes several instruments that favour renewable investment. PPA, strengthened thanks to greater transparency and liquidity, provide long‑term revenue visibility. Two‑way CfDs, applicable to new capacity, reduce exposure to price risk. Added to this are capacity mechanisms and demand response, which provide flexibility revenues. All of this is complemented by the standardisation of products and the introduction of MTU‑15 in day‑ahead coupling, which increase efficiency and improve market signals. Together, they create a more stable and bankable framework to drive renewable investment.
If AleaSoft had to summarise the most relevant recommendations to accelerate the energy transition in Spain —in regulatory, market and technological terms— what would they be?
At AleaSoft we identify six key priorities to accelerate the energy transition in Spain. Firstly, it is essential to reinforce the grids and interconnections, implementing swiftly the 2021‑2026 plan and launching the 2025‑2030 plan, with special attention to evacuation corridors and reinforcements in areas already experiencing renewable curtailments. Secondly, progress must be made in defining a market calendar for capacity and non‑frequency services, such as voltage and synthetic inertia, with clear and bankable rules for the development of batteries and pumped storage, with the aim of reaching the 22.5 GW of storage set out in the NECP. It is also crucial to consolidate the MTU‑15, as well as to facilitate PPA and long‑term hedges, including hybrid PPA with storage. On hydrogen, it is key to coordinate support with industrial demand and ensure access to cheaper renewable electricity, either through PPA or by taking advantage of off‑peak hours. In terms of demand, it is necessary to accelerate aggregation and the deployment of SRAD in sectors such as industry, electromobility and data centres, through hourly signals and active consumption management. Lastly, it is advisable to promote the hybridisation of solar and wind energy plants with storage, since this strategy makes better use of existing grid connection points, reduces curtailments, extends the hourly profile of renewable energy production and improves risk management in PPA. In addition, this strengthens the competitiveness of projects by offering a more stable and predictable product for the grid and for offtakers. Altogether, these measures are complementary: without grids and interconnections renewable energy will not be integrated, without flexibility there will be no security of supply, and without active demand, electrification will not achieve its targets.
