AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, November 24, 2025. In the third week of November, prices in the main European electricity markets increased, driven by higher demand associated with falling temperatures and by lower renewable energy production in several markets. Most markets exceeded €95/MWh in weekly average prices and on Friday, November 21, daily prices reached their highest levels since at least July. On November 20, photovoltaic energy production set a record for a November day in Portugal and, on November 21, TTF gas futures fell to €30.20/MWh, their lowest level since May 2024.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the week of November 17, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in most major European markets compared to the previous week. The markets of the Iberian Peninsula registered the largest increases, with rises of 39% in Spain and 126% in Portugal. The French and German markets registered increases of 4.2% and 7.2%, respectively. On the other hand, in the Italian market, production from this technology declined for the second consecutive week, this time by 31%.
During the week, the markets of the Iberian Peninsula reached records for solar photovoltaic energy production for a November day. On Tuesday, the 18th, the Spanish market registered its second‑highest solar photovoltaic energy production for a November day, 132 GWh, following the record reached on the 3rd, when it generated 149 GWh. Portugal reached its highest daily photovoltaic energy generation for a November on the 20th, with 18 GWh.
For the week of November 24, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts, photovoltaic energy production will increase in the Italian market, but it will fall in the German and Spanish markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.In the third week of November, wind energy production increased in the Italian and German electricity markets compared to the previous week. The Italian market registered the largest increase, 70%, after declines in the previous three weeks. The German market continued its upward trend for the second consecutive week, with a 2.4% rise. Conversely, the Iberian and French markets registered a shift to a downward trend. Portugal registered the largest decrease, 60%, followed by Spain with a 22% drop. France registered the smallest decrease, 11%.
For the last week of November, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts, wind energy generation will increase in the Iberian and Italian markets, while it will decline in the French and German markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.Electricity demand
In the week of November 17, electricity demand increased in the main European markets compared to the previous week. The French market registered the largest rise, 31%, followed by increases of 15% and 14% in Belgium and Great Britain, respectively. The Portuguese market had the smallest increase, 2.5%. In the Spanish, German and Italian markets, demand grew by 5.8%, 6.1% and 6.9%, respectively. Except for France and Belgium, all other analyzed markets registered increases in demand for the third consecutive week.
During the week, all analyzed markets registered lower average temperatures than in the previous week. Belgium, Germany and France registered the largest drops, 8.9 °C, 8.3 °C and 8.1 °C, respectively. In Italy, Portugal, Spain and Great Britain, average temperatures fell between 2.6 °C in Italy and 6.8 °C in Great Britain.
In the French and Belgian markets, the return to normal working activity after the Armistice Day national holiday on November 11, celebrated in both countries in the second week of November, also supported higher demand.
For the last week of November, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts, demand will increase in Italy, Germany, Spain, Portugal and Belgium. Conversely, demand will fall in France and Great Britain.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
In the third week of November, average prices in the main European electricity markets rose compared to the previous week. The IPEX market of Italy registered the smallest increase, 3.3%, while the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries and the EPEX SPOT market of France registered the largest percentage price increases, 113% and 179%, respectively. In the remaining markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices rose between 12% in the EPEX SPOT market of Germany and 67% in the MIBEL market of Portugal.
In the week of November 17, weekly averages exceeded €95/MWh in most European electricity markets. The exceptions were the Spanish, Portuguese and French markets, with averages of €71.73/MWh, €72.25/MWh and €87.17/MWh, respectively. The Italian market reached the highest weekly average, €119.00/MWh. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices ranged between €99.19/MWh in the N2EX market of the United Kingdom and €104.91/MWh in the German market.
In terms of daily prices, the Iberian market reached the lowest daily average of the week among the analyzed markets, €39.88/MWh, on Sunday, November 23. In the rest of the markets, daily prices remained above €60/MWh in the third week of November. In Italy, daily prices exceeded €105/MWh throughout the week. The other markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting also registered prices above €100/MWh in some sessions of the third week of November. Most markets reached their highest prices of the week on Friday, November 21. On that day, the German market registered the highest daily average of the week, €146.48/MWh. The Nordic market reached its highest daily price since February 15, €140.44/MWh. The French and Belgian markets registered their highest prices since July 2, €112.72/MWh and €133.62/MWh, respectively. In Italy, on November 21, the price was €134.10/MWh, its highest daily price since June 24.
In the week of November 17, higher electricity demand supported rising prices in European electricity markets. The increase in the weekly gas price also contributed to this trend. In addition, wind energy production fell in Spain, France and Portugal, while solar energy production declined in Italy.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that, in the fourth week of November, prices will continue to increase in most major European electricity markets, influenced by lower wind energy production in markets such as Germany and France, as well as rising demand in some markets. Conversely, higher wind energy production in the Iberian Peninsula could help push prices down in the MIBEL market.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $64.89/bbl, on Tuesday, November 18. Prices then began a downward trend. As a result, on Friday, November 21, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $62.56/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 2.8% lower than the previous Friday and the lowest since October 22.
During the third week of November, Brent oil futures prices remained below $65/bbl despite sanctions on Russian oil companies. Peace talks regarding Ukraine exerted downward pressure on prices. The possibility of lifting sanctions on Russia if an agreement were reached added to concerns about a potential oversupply in the market.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, they began the third week of November with price increases. On Tuesday, November 18, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €31.69/MWh. In the following sessions of the week, settlement prices remained below €31.20/MWh. On Friday, November 21, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €30.20/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 3.4% lower than the previous Friday and the lowest since May 16, 2024.
Despite low temperatures in Europe, stable supply allowed TTF gas futures prices to remain below €32/MWh throughout the third week of November. Forecasts of milder temperatures in late November and early December, along with peace talks for Ukraine, contributed to the decline in prices at the end of the week.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2025, on Monday, November 17, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €79.94/t. However, prices exceeded €80/t in the other sessions of the third week of November. On Thursday, November 20, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €81.38/t. After falling 1.2% from the previous day, on Friday, November 21, the settlement price was €80.42/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 0.6% lower than the previous Friday.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the progress and prospects of the five‑year period of batteries
On Thursday, December 4, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will hold the 61st edition of its monthly webinar series. This edition will analyze the balance of the first year of the five‑year period of batteries, the prospects for the next years of the five‑year period and the strategic vectors of the energy transition, such as renewable energy, demand, grids and energy storage. The guest speakers at the webinar in Spanish will be Antonio Hernández García, Partner of Regulated Sectors at EY, Carlos Milans del Bosch, Partner, Corporate Finance Energy at Deloitte, and Oscar Barrero Gil, Partner responsible for Energy Sector at PwC Spain.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
