AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, July 1, 2025. In the first half of 2025, the average price in most major European electricity markets exceeded €60/MWh and was the highest since the second half of 2023 in several markets. Rising demand and rising gas and CO2 prices drove this trend. In contrast, increasing wind and solar energy production helped prices in markets further south on the continent to fall compared to the previous six‑month period. Half‑year solar photovoltaic energy production was the highest ever in the main European markets.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the first half of 2025, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in all major European markets compared to the same period last year. The French market registered the largest increase, 33%, followed by Portugal, with 29%. Italy and Germany registered very similar increases, 23% and 22%, respectively. The Spanish market registered the smallest year‑on‑year variation, 10%.
Compared to the second half of 2024, solar photovoltaic energy production in the first half of 2025 also increased in all major European markets. The German market registered the largest increase, 30%. It was followed by the French and Italian markets, with increases of 27% and 25%, respectively. The Iberian market registered the smallest increases. Photovoltaic energy production increased by 8.0% in the Portuguese market and by 4.1% in the Spanish market.
Furthermore, in all analysed markets, the half‑year solar photovoltaic energy production was the highest ever. Germany generated 39 817 GWh with this technology, while in Spain generation was 23 066 GWh, in Italy 16 982 GWh, in France 15 011 GWh and in Portugal 2830 GWh.
On the other hand, according to data from Red Eléctrica, in June 2025, solar photovoltaic energy capacity in Mainland Spain exceeded the capacity installed at the end of 2024 by 2455 MW.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.In the first half of 2025, wind energy production decreased in all major European markets compared to the same period in 2024. The German market registered the largest decline, 18%. It was followed by the Italian and Spanish markets, with declines of 12% and 9.4%, respectively. The Portuguese and French markets registered the smallest declines, 6.2% and 5.9%, respectively.
Compared to the second half of 2024, wind energy production increased in most analysed markets. The Italian market registered the largest increase, 19%, followed by the French market, with an increase of 9.6%. The Spanish and Portuguese markets registered the smallest increases, 3.8% and 1.5%, respectively. On the other hand, in the German market, production with this technology decreased by 3.8%.
In terms of installed capacity, data from Red Eléctrica indicate that in June 2025 wind energy capacity in Mainland Spain was 444 MW higher than that registered at the end of 2024.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.Electricity demand
During the first half of 2025, electricity demand registered year‑on‑year increases in most major European markets. The Portuguese and French markets registered the largest increases, 2.8% and 2.5%, respectively. They were followed by the Spanish and Italian markets, with increases of 1.4% and 0.9%, respectively. The German market registered the smallest increase, 0.6%. In contrast, the Belgian and British markets registered a year‑on‑year decrease in electricity demand. The first fell by 1.3% and the second by 0.1%.
Most markets also registered increases in demand compared to the previous six‑month period. The French market led this trend with an increase of 8.3%. In the other markets, demand increased between 0.2% in the Spanish market and 3.2% in the Portuguese market. However, the Italian market showed the opposite behaviour, with a drop in demand of 3.3% compared to the second half of 2024.
At the same time, the evolution of average temperatures compared to the same period of the previous year was uneven in the main European markets. On the one hand, average temperatures decreased year‑on‑year by 1.1 °C in Germany, 0.5 °C in Belgium and 0.2 °C in Portugal. In the remaining markets, average temperatures increased from 0.1 °C in Italy and Great Britain to 0.3 °C in France.
Compared to the second half of 2024, average temperatures decreased in all analysed markets, with decreases ranging from 2.5 °C in Great Britain to 4.3 °C in Italy.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
In the first half of 2025, the average price exceeded €60/MWh in most major European electricity markets. The exception was the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries, with a half‑year average of €35.95/MWh. The N2EX market of the United Kingdom and the IPEX market of Italy had the highest half‑year prices, €104.74/MWh and €119.51/MWh, respectively. In the other markets analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, the averages ranged from €61.79/MWh in the MIBEL market of Spain to €90.71/MWh in the EPEX SPOT market of Germany.
Compared to the previous semester, in the first half of 2025, average prices decreased by 3.2% in the French and Italian markets. The Portuguese and Spanish markets also registered falls, 28% and 29%, respectively. In contrast, the rest of the analysed markets registered price increases ranging from 1.6% in the German market to 41% in the Nordic market.
Comparing average prices in the first half of 2025 with those registered in the same half of 2024, prices increased in almost all European electricity markets analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting. The Nordic market was the exception, with a 23% drop. The Spanish and Portuguese markets registered the largest increases, 58% and 61%, respectively. In the remaining markets, price increases ranged from 28% in the Italian market to 45% in the Belgian market.
These price increases resulted in the price in the first half of 2025 being the highest since the second half of 2023 in the German, Belgian, British and Dutch markets.
In the first half of 2025, the increase in wind and solar energy production compared to the previous half year in the Spanish, French, Italian and Portuguese markets contributed to the price decrease in these markets. However, the increase in average gas and CO2 emission allowance prices compared to the previous half year, as well as the increase in demand, pushed up prices in most European electricity markets.
When compared to the first half of 2024, higher average gas and CO2 emission allowance prices, falling wind energy production and increased demand in some markets led to the year‑on‑year increase in European electricity market prices.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market registered a six‑month average price of $70.81/bbl in the first half of 2025. This value was 7.3% lower than the average reached by the previous six‑month Front‑Month futures, $76.38/bbl. It was also 15% lower than that of Front‑Month futures traded in the first half of 2024, $83.42/bbl.
During the first half of 2025, despite instability in the Middle East, concerns about global oil demand pushed Brent futures prices lower. Trade tensions related to tariff policies exerted their influence on price evolution during the period. OPEC+ production increases also contributed to the price decline.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, the average price registered during the first half of 2025 for these futures was €41.21/MWh. Compared to the price of the Front‑Month futures traded in the previous half year, €39.48/MWh, the average increased by 4.4%. Compared to the Front‑Month futures traded in the same half of 2024, when the average price was €29.70/MWh, there was an increase of 39%.
In the first months of the six‑month period, low temperatures, concerns about low European reserve levels and the end of Russian gas supplies via Ukraine pushed TTF gas futures prices up. Subsequently, concerns about demand evolution, milder temperatures in spring and rising European reserves exerted their downward influence on prices. However, at the end of the six‑month period, supply problems from Norway, demand for liquefied natural gas in Asia, instability in the Middle East and high temperatures contributed to the increase in the six‑month average price.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2025, they reached an average price of €72.60/t in the first half of 2025. This price was 4.5% higher than the average of the previous six‑month period, €69.48/t. Compared to the average for the same half of 2024, €68.20/t, the average for the first half of 2025 was 6.5% higher.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis for energy management and storage project development
Through its AleaBlue division, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting provides electricity market forecasts in the short- and mid‑term horizons. These forecasts are key for energy management, planning, bidding, risk management and hedging. Demand and price forecasts for intraday markets and ancillary services are also developed, the latter being particularly useful for optimising price arbitrage with energy storage systems.
On the other hand, the AleaStorage division focuses on the technical and economic analysis of energy storage projects. Its services include studies to estimate expected profitability and revenues, optimise battery sizing in hybrid installations with renewable energy and analyse different business models with energy storage.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
