AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, August 31, 2026. In the fourth week of August, weekly prices fell in most European electricity markets. A widespread increase in wind energy production supported this trend, with Italy as the exception. Portugal set a wind energy production record for an August day. Brent futures fell. In contrast, TTF gas futures rose, supported by low European gas storage levels and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, and reached their highest settlement price since January 2023.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the week of August 24, solar photovoltaic energy production increased by 20% in Germany compared with the previous week, following the decline of the week before. Production decreased in the rest of the major European electricity markets. Portugal registered the largest drop, at 19%, followed by Spain and France, with declines of 11% and 8.7%, respectively. Italy registered the smallest decrease, at 2.5%. Portugal and France registered declines for the second consecutive week, while Spain and Italy registered their fourth consecutive week of decreases.
For the week of August 31, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts point to an increase in the Spanish and Italian markets. In contrast, solar energy production will decrease in the German market.
In the fourth week of August, wind energy production increased in all major European electricity markets compared with the previous week. Portugal registered the largest increase, at 60%, followed by Germany, with a 55% rise. France and Spain registered increases of 27% and 23%, respectively, while Italy registered the smallest growth, at 4.6%. Germany, France, Portugal and Spain registered increases for the second consecutive week, while Italy registered its third consecutive week of growth.
In addition, on August 24, Portugal reached 81 GWh of wind energy production, the highest level ever registered for an August day. On August 29, France produced 218 GWh of wind energy, its highest daily level for an August day since 2023.
For the week of August 31, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts point to an increase in the German market. In contrast, wind energy production will decrease in the French, Spanish, Portuguese and Italian markets.
Electricity demand
In the fourth week of August, electricity demand increased in most major European electricity markets analyzed compared with the previous week. Italy registered the largest increase, at 15%, while France registered the smallest growth, at 2.2%. In the other markets where demand increased, growth reached 3.9% in Belgium, 3.2% in Germany and 2.3% in Great Britain. Growth in Germany and Italy ended three consecutive weeks of declines.
In contrast, demand fell by 5.5% in Spain and 2.2% in Portugal. Spain registered its sixth consecutive week of declines, while Portugal registered its fourth consecutive weekly decrease.
During the week, average temperatures increased in Germany, Great Britain, Italy, France and Belgium compared with the previous week. Germany registered the largest increase, at 1.4 °C, followed by Great Britain, at 1.2 °C, and Italy, at 1.0 °C. France and Belgium registered increases of 0.4 °C and 0.1 °C, respectively. In contrast, average temperatures fell by 2.2 °C in Portugal and 2.1 °C in Spain.
Lower temperatures contributed to the decline in electricity demand in Spain and Portugal. In markets where temperatures increased, warmer weather supported demand growth.
For the week of August 31, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts indicate increases in the Portuguese and Spanish markets. In contrast, demand will decrease in the Italian, Belgian, French, British and German markets.
European electricity markets
In the fourth week of August, weekly average prices decreased in most major European electricity markets compared with the previous week. The Nordic market registered the largest decline, at 20%, followed by Portugal, with a 17% drop, and the Netherlands, with 16%. In Germany, France and Spain, prices fell by between 12% in Spain and 14% in Germany. The Belgian market registered an 8.1% decline, while the British market registered the smallest decrease, at 2.2%. In contrast, the Italian market registered the week’s only increase, at 15%.
In the week of August 24, the Italian market registered the highest weekly average, at €194.14/MWh, followed by the British market, at €160.40/MWh. The Nordic market registered the lowest weekly average, at €89.81/MWh, after registering the largest percentage decline of the week. The Portuguese and Spanish markets both averaged €106.46/MWh. In the other markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, weekly average prices ranged from €121.15/MWh in the French market to €132.28/MWh in the Belgian market.
As for daily prices, the Italian market remained above €190/MWh for almost the entire fourth week of August, except on Sunday, and reached its highest level, €205.52/MWh, on August 27 and 28. This marked its highest price since August 6. The British market also remained at high levels throughout the week, with daily prices exceeding €160/MWh on several occasions. The Belgian market also exceeded this level on August 26 and 27. In contrast, higher wind energy production and lower demand drove a sharp decline in daily prices on Saturday, August 29, in the German, French, Belgian, Dutch and Nordic markets. On that day, the Nordic market registered the lowest daily price among the markets analyzed, at €15.04/MWh, while the French market fell to €65.33/MWh.
The widespread increase in wind energy production drove electricity market prices down in the fourth week of August. In Italy, the week’s smallest increase in wind energy production, at 4.6%, combined with the largest increase in electricity demand, at 15%, kept prices from following the downward trend in the other markets.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that prices will increase in the Spanish and Portuguese markets in the week of August 31, in line with the expected decline in wind energy production in the Iberian Peninsula. Prices will decrease in the other European electricity markets analyzed, except in France, where forecasts point to a slight increase, also influenced by lower wind energy production in that market.
Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market reached their weekly high settlement price of $92.17/bbl on Monday, August 24, already 2.4% below the previous Friday’s level. Prices continued to decline and reached their weekly low of $87.84/bbl on Wednesday, August 26. During the final two trading sessions of the week, prices remained above $89/bbl. On Friday, August 28, the settlement price stood at $89.31/bbl, 5.4% below the previous Friday’s level.
Persistent tensions between the United States and Iran, with maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz still below normal levels despite a proposal for a temporary shipping corridor between Iran and Oman, maintained uncertainty in Brent oil futures and reversed the previous week’s gains.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, they reached their weekly high settlement price of €68.32/MWh on Monday, August 24, 3.7% above the previous Friday’s level and the highest price since January 11, 2023. In contrast, prices reached their weekly low of €65.63/MWh on Wednesday, August 26. On Friday, August 28, the settlement price stood at €66.98/MWh, 1.7% above the previous Friday’s level.
European gas storage facilities held inventories at around 65% of capacity at the end of August. This storage level, together with persistent tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, kept TTF gas futures prices above €65/MWh during the week.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2026, prices reached their weekly high settlement price of €84.43/t on Tuesday, August 25, the highest level since July 23. During the final three trading sessions of the week, prices remained below €83/t. On Thursday, August 27, they reached their weekly low of €82.42/t. On Friday, August 28, the settlement price stood at €82.74/t, virtually unchanged from the previous Friday.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe
On Thursday, September 17, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will hold the 69th edition of its monthly webinar series. The session will cover recent developments and the prospects for European energy markets, the current state of energy storage, expected developments and key challenges, as well as progress in self‑consumption, its challenges and opportunities. Josefin Berg, Associate Director of Renewables Markets at S&P Global Energy, will participate in the webinar. Francisco Valverde Sánchez, an independent renewable energy development professional, will also participate in the panel discussion of the Spanish‑language webinar.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.