AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, October 26, 2026. In the week of October 19, weekly prices declined in most European electricity markets, supported by increased wind energy production, despite rising demand and gas prices. Italy was the exception. France set an all‑time record for wind energy production for an October day. TTF gas futures reached their highest settlement price since December 2022, while Brent oil futures rebounded amid tensions in the Middle East.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
During the week of October 19, solar photovoltaic energy production declined in the main European electricity markets compared to the previous week. France registered the largest decrease, at 34%, followed by Germany, with a 31% drop. Production in Germany declined for the fourth consecutive week, while France registered its second consecutive weekly decrease. Production fell by 22% in Italy and 13% in Portugal. Spain registered the smallest decline, at 3.2%. The Italian, Portuguese and Spanish markets thus reversed the increases of the previous week.
For the week of October 26, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts indicate production increases in the German, Spanish and Italian markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.During the week of October 19, wind energy production increased in the main European electricity markets compared to the previous week. France registered the largest increase, at 154%, followed by Germany, with an 87% rise. Both markets thus reversed the declines of the previous week. In Spain, production increased by 24%. Italy and Portugal registered increases of 21%. The Italian market accumulated three consecutive weeks of growth, while Spain and Portugal reversed the declines of the previous two weeks.
On Friday, October 23, wind energy production in France reached 415 GWh, setting an all‑time record for an October day. This figure also marked the highest level since January 9, 2026. Meanwhile, Germany registered 1117 GWh on Saturday, October 24, its highest daily wind energy production since October 26, 2025.
For the week of October 26, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts indicate production declines in all the markets analyzed.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.Electricity demand
During the week of October 19, electricity demand increased in the main European electricity markets compared to the previous week. France registered the largest increase, at 12%, followed by Great Britain, with a 9.7% rise. Demand increased by 3.5% in Belgium and 2.7% in Germany. The French, Belgian and German markets accumulated four consecutive weeks of growth, while the British market registered its third consecutive weekly increase.
In the Iberian Peninsula, demand increased by 1.4% in Spain and 0.9% in Portugal. The Portuguese market accumulated two consecutive weeks of growth. Italy registered the smallest increase, at 0.7%. The Spanish and Italian markets thus reversed the declines of previous weeks. In Spain, the recovery in activity following the October 12 national holiday also contributed to the increase in demand.
During the week, average temperatures fell in all the markets analyzed compared to the previous week. Portugal registered the largest decrease, at 4.8 °C, followed by Spain, at 3.9 °C, France, at 3.4 °C, and Belgium, at 3.1 °C. Temperatures fell by 2.8 °C in Great Britain, 0.8 °C in Italy and 0.3 °C in Germany. The increase in electricity demand coincided with a widespread decline in temperatures.
For the week of October 26, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts indicate declines in the main European electricity markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
Weekly average prices declined in most major European electricity markets in the week of October 19 compared to the previous week. The French and Dutch markets registered the largest price decreases, at 29% in both cases, followed by the Belgian market, with a 28% drop. Prices fell by 26% in the German market and 24% in the Nordic market. The British market registered a 16% decline. The Portuguese market registered the smallest decrease, at 3.8%, while the Spanish market maintained a practically stable weekly average price, with a slight decline of 0.1%. In contrast, the Italian market registered a 7.6% increase.
The Italian market registered the highest weekly average price, at €242.26/MWh, while the Nordic market registered the lowest, at €82.00/MWh. In the remaining markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, weekly average prices ranged from €128.37/MWh in France to €153.95/MWh in the United Kingdom.
Regarding daily prices, most markets registered their highest prices of the week on Monday, October 19. On that day, the Italian market reached €262.63/MWh, the highest daily price of the week among the markets analyzed. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was the market’s highest price since December 21, 2022. The French market registered €221.77/MWh, its highest price since December 19, 2022. The Portuguese and Spanish markets reached €216.66/MWh and €215.11/MWh, respectively, their highest prices since April 29, 2022. On the same day, the Belgian, British and Dutch markets registered their weekly highs of €221.97/MWh, €216.08/MWh and €207.25/MWh, respectively. The Nordic market reached its highest price of the week, at €143.98/MWh, on Tuesday, October 20, while the German market registered its weekly high of €211.94/MWh on October 21.
On Monday, October 26, all the markets analyzed registered lower daily prices than on the previous Monday. However, between 20:00 and 21:00, the Spanish market registered an hourly price of €300.00/MWh. The market last reached this price on September 10, 2022.
Meanwhile, most markets registered their lowest prices of the week on Sunday, October 25. On that day, the Nordic market registered €4.56/MWh, the lowest daily price of the week among the markets analyzed and its lowest price since October 6, 2025. The German market reached €13.12/MWh, while the Belgian and Dutch markets registered €21.78/MWh and €23.25/MWh, respectively. In all three cases, these were their lowest prices since May 2. The French market registered €25.34/MWh, its lowest price since June 14, while the British market registered €36.32/MWh, its lowest price since September 20. On the same day, the Italian market registered its weekly minimum of €224.22/MWh. The Spanish and Portuguese markets reached their lowest prices of the week, both at €110.09/MWh, on Friday, October 23.
The increase in wind energy production across all the markets analyzed contributed to the price declines in most European electricity markets, despite rising demand, lower solar energy production and higher gas prices. High wind energy production in Germany and France during the second half of the week contributed to the low prices over the weekend. In contrast, lower solar energy production and higher gas prices contributed to the price increase in Italy.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that prices will rise in most European electricity markets analyzed during the week of October 26. In contrast, prices will decline in the Italian market.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, RTE, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market registered a settlement price of $109.55/bbl on Monday, October 19, 0.3% below the previous Friday’s level. The following day, Tuesday, October 20, these futures reached their lowest settlement price of the week, at $108.79/bbl. Prices subsequently increased during the remaining three trading sessions. On Friday, October 23, these futures registered their highest settlement price of the week, at $116.72/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was the highest price since April 30 and 6.2% above the previous Friday’s level.
During the second half of the week, rising tensions in the Middle East pushed prices higher. On October 22, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard stated that seven oil tankers had sustained damage in the Strait of Hormuz, four from attacks and three after striking mines. Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure and the possibility that the United States might resume strikes against Iran also heightened concerns about supply.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, they registered a settlement price of €88.04/MWh on Monday, October 19, 0.6% above the previous Friday’s level. On Tuesday, October 20, these futures fell by 3.4% from the previous day and reached their lowest settlement price of the week, at €85.06/MWh. Prices subsequently increased throughout the rest of the week. On Friday, October 23, they reached their highest settlement price of the week, at €93.85/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was the highest price since December 22, 2022, and 7.2% above the previous Friday’s level.
During the week, European Union gas storage levels stood at around 75% of capacity, below the five‑year average for this time of year. Falling temperatures, concerns about storage levels ahead of winter and ongoing restrictions on LNG shipments from the Middle East contributed to the price increase.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2026, prices reached their lowest settlement level of the week on Monday, October 19, at €85.40/t. This price was slightly below the previous Friday’s level and, according to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, the lowest since October 8. Prices subsequently increased until Thursday, October 22, when they reached their highest settlement level of the week, at €86.47/t. On Friday, October 23, the settlement price stood at €86.27/t, 1.0% above the previous Friday’s level.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe
On Thursday, October 15, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting held the 70th edition of its monthly webinar series. This edition featured Álvaro Antón Azcoiti, Director, Corporate Finance Energy at Deloitte, Álvaro Osés Lainez, Manager, Treasury Advisory at Deloitte, and Oriol Saltó i Bauzà, Associate Partner at AleaSoft. The speakers analyzed recent developments in European energy markets and their prospects for winter 2026‑2027. They also discussed financing for renewable energy and storage projects, the prospects for batteries and hybridization, and the role of forecasts in financing, audits and portfolio valuation. All three speakers also participated in the analysis panel, which took place exclusively during the Spanish‑language webinar. Antonio Delgado Rigal, founder and CEO of AleaSoft, moderated the Spanish‑language webinar and analysis panel.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.