AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, November 2, 2026. In the week of October 26, prices rose across the main European electricity markets as wind energy production declined and gas and CO₂ prices increased. Spain and Portugal reached their highest daily prices since April 2022. Low European gas storage levels and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz pushed TTF gas futures to their highest settlement price since December 2022. Brent oil futures reached their highest settlement price since April. Meanwhile, France set a photovoltaic energy production record for a November day.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
During the week of October 26, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in the main European electricity markets compared to the previous week. France led the increases with a 48% rise, following two consecutive weeks of declines. Spain and Italy registered increases of 10% and 6.2%, respectively. In Germany, production grew by 5.5% after four consecutive weeks of declines. Portugal registered the smallest increase, at 4.6%. The Spanish, Italian and Portuguese markets thus returned to an upward trend after the previous week’s declines.
On Sunday, November 1, France set an all‑time record for solar photovoltaic energy production for a November day, reaching 89 GWh. Meanwhile, on Monday, October 26, Spain registered its second‑highest solar photovoltaic energy production for an October day, at 190 GWh.
For the week of November 2, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts indicate production increases in the German and Italian markets. In contrast, solar energy production will decline in the Spanish market.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.During the last week of October, wind energy production declined in the main European electricity markets compared to the previous week. The decreases ranged from 71% in Portugal to 13% in Italy, where the decline ended three consecutive weeks of increases. Germany, France and Spain registered decreases of 59%, 51% and 38%, respectively. These three markets and Portugal reversed their upward trends from the previous week.
For the week of November 2, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts indicate increases in production in the Portuguese and Spanish markets. In contrast, wind energy production will decline in the German, French and Italian markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.Electricity demand
During the week of October 26, electricity demand increased in most major European electricity markets compared to the previous week. Portugal registered the largest increase, at 1.5%, marking its third consecutive week of growth. Italy and Spain registered increases of 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively, extending their upward trends to two consecutive weeks. France registered the smallest increase, at 0.3%, extending its growth trend to five consecutive weeks.
In contrast, demand declined by 2.3% in Germany and 1.2% in Belgium. Both markets ended four consecutive weeks of increases. In Great Britain, demand fell by 0.6% after three consecutive weeks of growth.
During the week, average temperatures declined in Italy, Germany, France and Belgium compared to the previous week. Italy registered the largest decrease, at 2.5 °C, followed by Germany with 0.6 °C, France with 0.4 °C and Belgium with 0.2 °C. In contrast, average temperatures rose by 1.4 °C in Portugal and Great Britain, and by 0.9 °C in Spain.
For the week of November 2, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts indicate increases in the French, British, Belgian, German and Italian markets. In contrast, the Portuguese and Spanish markets will register declines in electricity demand.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
Weekly average prices in the main European electricity markets increased during the week of October 26 compared to the previous week. The Dutch market registered the largest increase, at 74%, followed by the French market with a 73% rise, the German market with 70% and the Belgian market with 69%. In the British, Portuguese and Spanish markets, prices rose by 38%, 37% and 35%, respectively. The Nordic market registered a 22% increase, while the Italian market registered the smallest rise, at 8.1%.
The Italian market once again registered the highest weekly average price, at €261.76/MWh, while the Nordic market registered the lowest, at €100.30/MWh. In the other markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, weekly average prices ranged from €207.01/MWh in Spain to €232.99/MWh in Belgium.
Regarding daily prices, most markets registered their highest prices of the week on Thursday, October 29. On that day, the German market reached €314.85/MWh, the highest daily price of the week among the markets under analysis. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was the market’s highest price since December 13, 2024. On the same day, the Dutch market registered €311.53/MWh, also its highest price since December 13, 2024. The Belgian market reached €296.46/MWh, its highest price since December 17, 2022. The Italian and French markets registered €278.47/MWh and €266.72/MWh, respectively, their highest prices since December 18, 2022. In the Italian market, the price rose even further on Monday, November 2, reaching €282.30/MWh, its highest level since December 17, 2022. Meanwhile, the British market reached €255.45/MWh on October 29, its highest price since January 23, 2025.
The Portuguese and Spanish markets registered their highest prices of the week on Friday, October 30, at €249.27/MWh and €244.69/MWh, respectively. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, these were the highest prices in both markets since April 7, 2022. The Nordic market reached its weekly maximum of €157.50/MWh on Saturday, October 31.
On the other hand, the Nordic market registered the lowest price of the week among the markets under analysis, at €24.36/MWh, on Tuesday, October 27. On the same day, the British and Belgian markets registered their minimum prices of the week, at €129.30/MWh and €160.45/MWh, respectively. The German, Dutch, French and Italian markets registered their lowest prices of the week on Monday, October 26, ranging from €116.57/MWh in Germany to €241.54/MWh in Italy. The Spanish and Portuguese markets registered their weekly minimum prices, both at €163.19/MWh, on Sunday, November 1.
The decline in wind energy production across all the markets under analysis, together with rising TTF gas and CO₂ emission allowance prices, contributed to the price increases. Higher demand in France, Italy, Spain and Portugal also contributed to the increases in these markets.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that prices will rise again during the week of November 2 in the German, French, Spanish, Portuguese, Italian, British, Belgian and Dutch markets. Higher demand in most markets and lower wind energy production in markets such as Germany, France and Italy will contribute to this trend. In addition, gas price developments will also influence European electricity market prices.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, RTE, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
On Monday, October 26, Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market registered a settlement price of $115.81/bbl, 0.8% below the previous Friday’s level. On Tuesday, October 27, these futures fell by 1.7% compared to the previous day and reached their lowest settlement price of the week, at $113.88/bbl. Prices subsequently rose in two of the remaining three trading sessions. On Friday, October 30, these futures registered their highest settlement price of the week, at $117.64/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was the highest price since April 30 and stood 0.8% above the previous Friday’s level.
At the beginning of the week, expectations of a reduction in hostilities between the United States and Iran contributed to the decline in Brent oil futures prices. Later, supply concerns and the risk of an escalation of the conflict pushed prices higher, particularly on Friday, October 30, following attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. These incidents included an attack that caused a fire aboard an oil tanker off the coast of Oman on October 29.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, they registered a settlement price of €96.68/MWh on Monday, October 26, 3.0% above the previous Friday’s level. On Tuesday, October 27, they reached their lowest settlement price of the week, at €96.06/MWh. On October 28, these futures rose by 4.9% and settled at €100.72/MWh. On Friday, October 30, they reached their highest settlement price of the week, at €103.94/MWh, 11% above the previous Friday’s level. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was the highest price since December 21, 2022.
European Union gas storage levels stood at 74.6% of capacity on October 31, around 15 percentage points below the five‑year average for that date. In addition, the aggregate storage balance showed net withdrawals during the final days of October. Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key export route for liquefied natural gas from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, also exerted upward pressure on TTF gas futures prices.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2026, they registered a settlement price of €88.19/t on Monday, October 26, 2.2% above the previous Friday’s level. On Tuesday, October 27, they reached their lowest settlement price of the week, at €88.05/t. Prices subsequently rose through Thursday, October 29, when these futures registered their highest settlement price of the week, at €89.21/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was the highest price since January 17. On Friday, October 30, the settlement price stood at €89.19/t, virtually unchanged from the previous day but 3.4% above the previous Friday’s level.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe
On Thursday, November 12, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will hold the 71st edition of its monthly webinar series. The November edition will once again focus on batteries, hybridization and energy storage, technologies that continue to gain importance as the number of projects grows and the electricity system requires greater flexibility. Luis Marquina de Soto, President of AEPIBAL, the Spanish Association of Batteries and Energy Storage, will participate in the webinar in Spanish for the fourth consecutive year and he will share his analysis of the sector’s current situation and expected evolution. The webinar will examine the potential profitability of batteries and their revenue sources, with particular attention to Spain’s new capacity market. It will also review the key factors for analyzing and evaluating battery and hybridization projects, as well as the role of these technologies as renewable energy continues to expand. In addition, the session will review how European energy markets have performed in recent weeks and what to expect as winter 2026‑2027 approaches. The speakers will be Luis Marquina de Soto, Director of Institutional Relations at Gransolar Group and President of AEPIBAL, and Oriol Saltó i Bauzà, Associate Partner at AleaSoft. Luis Marquina de Soto will only participate in the Spanish‑language webinar. Both will also participate in the discussion panel, which will take place exclusively during the Spanish‑language webinar. In the Spanish‑language webinar, Antonio Delgado Rigal, founder and CEO of AleaSoft, will moderate the session and the discussion panel.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.