AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, November 3, 2025. In the last week of October, prices in the main European electricity markets recovered after the declines of the previous week, with most of them averaging above €60/MWh. The decrease in wind and solar energy production contributed to this recovery, despite lower electricity demand in almost all markets and falling gas prices, with gas futures reaching their lowest level since mid‑August on October 30.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the week of October 27, solar photovoltaic energy production decreased in most major European electricity markets compared to the previous week. The French market registered the largest decline, 15%, continuing a downward trend for the third consecutive week. The Portuguese and Spanish markets followed it, with decreases of 8.0% and 7.2%, respectively. For Portugal, this was the fourth consecutive week of declines, while for Spain it was the sixth. The Italian market registered the smallest decrease, 1.5%, extending its downward trend for the third week in a row. Conversely, in the German market, the negative trend of the previous week reversed and solar energy production increased by 7.9%.
In the week of November 3, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts, the downward trend will reverse and photovoltaic energy production will increase in the Italian, German and Spanish markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.During the week of October 27, wind energy production decreased in the main European markets compared to the previous week, reversing the upward trend observed in the previous week. The Italian market registered the largest decline, 40%. The Spanish and Portuguese markets followed it, with decreases of 34% and 21%, respectively. The German and French markets registered decreases of 17% and 13%, respectively.
In the week of November 3, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts, the downward trend will reverse in the Spanish market, where wind energy production will increase. In contrast, wind energy production will fall in the Italian, German, French and Portuguese markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.Electricity demand
In the week of October 27, electricity demand decreased in most major European markets compared to the previous week. The Italian market registered the largest decline, 2.8%. The Portuguese and German markets followed it, with decreases of 1.8% and 1.7%, respectively. The Spanish market registered the smallest decline, 0.6%. These decreases reversed the upward trend of the previous week. Meanwhile, the Belgian and British markets continued their downward trend, with decreases of 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively. The French market was the exception. In this market, demand increased for the fourth consecutive week, this time by 1.9%. It is worth noting that on November 1, Belgium, Spain, Portugal, Italy and France celebrated All Saints’ Day, which this year fell on a Saturday.
During the week, average temperatures fell in most analyzed markets compared to the previous week. Spain registered the largest drop, 3.0 °C, while France had the smallest, 0.3 °C. Great Britain was the exception, with an increase of 0.4 °C in average temperatures.
For the week of November 3, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts, demand will increase in most major European markets, although it will decrease in France and Portugal.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
In the last week of October, average prices in the main European electricity markets rose compared to the previous week. The N2EX market of the United Kingdom and the IPEX market of Italy registered the smallest price increases, 0.7% and 0.9%, respectively. In contrast, the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries and the MIBEL market of Portugal and Spain registered the largest percentage price rises, 44%, 46% and 48%, respectively. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices increased between 23% in the EPEX SPOT market of the Netherlands and 32% in the EPEX SPOT market of France.
In the week of October 27, weekly averages exceeded €60/MWh in most European electricity markets. The exceptions were the French and Nordic markets, whose averages were €45.00/MWh and €50.20/MWh, respectively. The Italian market reached the highest weekly average, €111.57/MWh. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices ranged between €64.38/MWh in the Belgian market and €75.47/MWh in the Portuguese market.
As for daily prices, the French market registered the lowest average of the week among the analyzed markets, €22.31/MWh, on October 31. On the other hand, during the last week of October, daily prices remained above €100/MWh in the Italian market. The Spanish and Portuguese markets also registered prices above €100/MWh on October 28 and 29. On October 31, the Italian market reached the highest daily average of the week, €124.53/MWh. In the case of the Nordic market, on October 29, the daily price was €75.43/MWh, its highest price since September 10.
During the week of October 27, the drop in wind energy production led to higher prices in the European electricity markets. Solar energy production also declined in most markets. In addition, electricity demand increased in the French market.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that in the first week of November, prices will fall in most major European electricity markets, influenced by lower demand, the increase in wind or solar energy production. However, prices will rise in Germany, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands, supported by higher electricity demand. In the German market, in addition, wind energy production will continue decreasing.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $65.62/bbl, on Monday, October 27. This price was already 0.5% lower than that of the last session of the previous week. After a 1.9% decrease from Monday, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $64.40/bbl, on Tuesday, October 28. In the last three sessions of the week, settlement prices remained around $65/bbl, with a slightly upward trend. On Friday, October 31, the settlement price was $65.07/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 1.3% lower than the previous Friday.
In the last week of October, the possibility of a new production increase by OPEC+ exerted downward pressure on Brent oil futures prices. However, US sanctions on Russian oil companies and improved global economic outlooks due to progress in negotiations between China and the United States contributed to price stabilization. On Sunday, November 2, OPEC+ agreed on a new production increase for December. The organization also announced its intention to halt production increases during the first quarter of 2026.
As for settlement prices of TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, they remained below €32/MWh during the last week of October. On October 29, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €31.87/MWh. In contrast, on Thursday, October 30, after a 2.6% decrease from the previous day, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €31.05/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was their lowest price since August 16. On Friday, October 31, the settlement price was slightly higher, €31.12/MWh, but still 2.8% lower than the previous Friday.
European reserve levels, averaging above 82%, and abundant liquefied natural gas supply allowed TTF gas futures prices to remain below €32/MWh during the last week of October, despite supply disruptions caused by maintenance in Norway.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2025, on Monday, October 27, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €77.76/t. In contrast, on October 29, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €78.83/t. In the last sessions of the week, prices fell again. As a result, on Friday, October 31, the settlement price was €78.54/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 0.3% higher than the previous Friday.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe and energy storage
The 60th edition of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s monthly webinar series will take place on Thursday, November 13. On this occasion, the webinar will focus on the evolution and prospects of European energy markets for the winter 2025‑2026, the prospects for batteries, hybridization and energy storage, as well as AleaSoft services for battery and hybridization projects. This webinar will feature the participation of Luis Marquina de Soto, president of AEPIBAL, the Business Association of Batteries and Energy Storage.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
