AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, August 11, 2025. In the first week of August, photovoltaic production grew in most major European electricity markets, particularly in Germany and Italy. Wind power generation showed widespread declines, with the Iberian Peninsula recording the largest drops. Electricity demand decreased in several markets, except in Belgium and Spain. Electricity prices fell due to higher solar production and lower gas and CO2 prices.
Solar photovoltaic production and wind power production
In the week of August 4, solar photovoltaic production increased in all major European electricity markets, continuing the upward trend of the previous week. The German market recorded the largest increase, at 36%, followed by 10% growth in the Italian market. The French market showed the smallest increase, 0.1%, while the Iberian Peninsula markets saw increases of 1.1% in Portugal and 5.4% in Spain. The upward trend continued for the second consecutive week in all markets except Portugal. In the Portuguese market, photovoltaic production increased, reversing the declines of the previous two weeks.
During the week, four of the markets analyzed reached a historic record for daily photovoltaic production for the month of August. On Monday, August 4, the French market generated 140 GWh. Three days later, on Thursday, August 7, the German market produced 393 GWh, while the Spanish market generated 218 GWh of photovoltaic solar energy. The Italian market closed the list with 152 GWh of solar energy produced on August 8.
For the week of August 11, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar production forecasts indicate increases in the German and Spanish markets. In contrast, solar production will decrease in the Italian market.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting based on data provided by ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting based on data provided by ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, and TERNA.During the week of August 4, wind power production decreased in the main European markets compared to the previous week. Declines in the Italian, German, and Spanish markets reversed the positive trend of the previous week. In contrast, the Portuguese and French markets continued their downward trend for the second and third consecutive weeks, respectively. The Iberian Peninsula markets recorded the largest declines, with decreases of 60% in Portugal and 45% in Spain. The French and Italian markets showed reductions of 24% and 26%, respectively, while the German market experienced the smallest decline, at 14%.
For the week of August 11, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind power production forecasts indicate that production will continue to decline in the German, Spanish, and Italian markets. In contrast, it will increase in the Portuguese and French markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting based on data provided by ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, and TERNA.Electricity demand
In the week of August 4, electricity demand decreased in most major European electricity markets compared to the previous week. The British and Italian markets experienced the largest declines, 7.1% and 6.9% respectively, while the German market showed the smallest decline, 0.5%. The French and Portuguese markets fell by 1.5% and 2.2% respectively. In France, Italy, and Great Britain, demand continued its downward trend for the third consecutive week, and Germany accumulated declines for the second week. The Belgian and Spanish markets broke this trend. The Belgian market increased its demand for the second consecutive week, this time by 2.8%, and the Spanish market increased it by 3.8% after two weeks of declines.
During the first week of August, average temperatures rose in all markets analyzed, with increases ranging from 0.1°C in Great Britain to 2.2°C in France and Germany.
For the week of August 11, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts indicate that most major European electricity markets will reverse the downward trend. Demand will increase in Germany, Belgium, Spain, France, Great Britain, and Italy, while it will decrease in Portugal.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting based on data provided by ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid, and ELIA.European electricity markets
In the first week of August, average prices in most major European electricity markets fell compared to the previous week. The exceptions were the IPEX market in Italy and the MIBEL market in Spain and Portugal, with increases of 3.5%, 57% and 59%, respectively. In contrast, the Nord Pool market in the Nordic countries recorded the largest percentage drop in prices, at 76%. In the rest of the markets analyzed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices fell between 15% in France’s EPEX SPOT market and 32% in the UK’s N2EX market.
During the week of August 4, weekly averages were below €70/MWh in most European electricity markets. The exception was the Italian market, which averaged €107.94/MWh. In contrast, the Nordic market had the lowest weekly average, at €7.12/MWh. In the rest of the markets analyzed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices ranged from €40.99/MWh in the French market to €68.88/MWh in the Portuguese market.
In terms of daily prices, on Tuesday, August 5, most markets recorded their lowest daily prices of the week, remaining below €40/MWh, influenced by high levels of wind power production. On that day, the Nordic market reached the lowest average of the week among the markets analyzed, at €0.92/MWh. On the other hand, daily prices on the Italian market remained above €100/MWh during the first week of August. On Thursday, August 7, the Italian market reached the highest daily average of the week, at €113.20/MWh.
In terms of hourly prices, most European electricity markets recorded negative prices during the first week of August, except for Italy. The lowest hourly prices were recorded on Sunday, August 10. On that day, the German, Belgian, and Dutch markets recorded hourly prices below -60€/MWh. From 12:00 to 13:00, the Belgian market reached the lowest hourly price of the week, at -€69.63/MWh. This was its lowest price since May 12. From 1:00 p.m. to 2:00 p.m., the Dutch market also recorded its lowest price since May 12, at -€64.79/MWh.
During the week of August 4, the decline in weekly gas prices and CO2 emission rights, the increase in solar production, and the decline in demand in most markets led to a drop in prices in European electricity markets. However, the decline in wind power production contributed to price increases in Spain, Italy, and Portugal. In addition, electricity demand increased in the Spanish market.
The price forecasts from AleaSoft Energy Forecasting indicate that, in the second week of August, prices will increase in European electricity markets, influenced by increased demand. In addition, wind production will decrease in most markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting based on data provided by OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool, and GME.Brent, fuels, and CO₂
Front-month Brent crude oil futures on the ICE market reached their weekly closing price high of $68.76/bbl on Monday, August 4. In the first week of August, closing prices continued the downward trend that began at the end of the previous week until Thursday, August 7. On that day, these futures recorded their lowest weekly closing price of $66.43/bbl. According to data analyzed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was the lowest since June 6. On Friday, August 8, the closing price was slightly higher, at $66.59/bbl. This price was 4.4% lower than the previous Friday.
The possibility of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, which would increase global oil supplies, exerted downward pressure on Brent oil futures in the first week of August. Meanwhile, trade tensions continued, raising concerns about the outlook for oil demand. This also contributed to the decline in prices.
As for TTF gas futures on the ICE market for the front month, they reached their maximum weekly closing price of €34.41/MWh on Tuesday, August 5. Subsequently, prices began a downward trend. As a result, on Friday, August 8, these futures recorded their lowest weekly closing price of €32.45/MWh. According to data analyzed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 4.5% lower than the previous Friday and the lowest since July 25.
The abundant supply of liquefied natural gas, as well as high gas flows from Norway, contributed to European reserves continuing to rise in the first week of August, favoring a decline in TTF gas futures prices. The possibility of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine also exerted downward pressure, despite the danger of further sanctions if peace negotiations fail.
With regard to CO2 emission allowance futures on the EEX market for the December 2025 reference contract, they recorded their lowest weekly closing price of €70.85/t on Monday, August 4. In most sessions during the first week of August, closing prices remained below €72/t. However, on Friday, August 8, after a 2.0% increase from the previous day, these futures reached their weekly closing price maximum of €73.22/t. According to data analyzed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 3.0% higher than the previous Friday and the highest since June 25.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting based on data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting analysis on the outlook for energy markets in Europe
The 58th webinar in the monthly webinar series by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will take place on Thursday, September 18. This webinar will analyze the evolution and outlook of European energy markets, the prospects for energy storage with batteries, as well as the current situation and outlook for self-consumption. In addition, the webinar will include a presentation of AleaSoft’s services for energy suppliers.
The panel discussion will feature Xavier Cugat, BESS Technical Director at Seraphim, Francisco Valverde, independent professional in renewable energy development, and Alejandro Diego Rosell, Professor at EOI and Consultant at Nuvix Consulting.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
