AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, June 3, 2025. In May, prices in the main European electricity markets reached their lowest levels since at least November. The Spanish market registered the lowest monthly average. Solar photovoltaic energy production set all‑time records in Germany, Italy, France and Portugal, while wind energy production grew year‑on‑year in several markets. Electricity demand fell, CO2 prices declined and gas prices were around those of April.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In May 2025, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in most major European electricity markets compared to the same month of the previous year. France led the percentage growth with 36%, while Germany registered the smallest increase, 12%. Italy and Portugal increased their production by 23% and 34%, respectively. In contrast, Spain reduced its photovoltaic energy production by 5.1% year‑on‑year.
Compared to April 2025, the main European markets increased their production in May. Portugal registered the largest percentage increase, 63%, while Italy and Germany had the smallest increase, 10% in both markets. France and Spain increased their production by 12% and 16%, respectively.
Most analysed markets registered all‑time records for solar photovoltaic energy production. Germany topped the list with 9752 GWh, followed by Italy with 3911 GWh, France with 3305 GWh and Portugal with 696 GWh.
The evolution of solar photovoltaic energy production reflects the year-on‑year growth of installed capacity in most of these markets. According to data from Red Eléctrica, between May 2024 and May 2025, Spain added 6467 MW of this technology to the peninsular system. In Portugal, according to data from REN, 1157 MW were added to its solar capacity.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.Wind energy production increased year‑on‑year in May 2025 in most major European electricity markets. France led the growth, up 31%, followed by Germany and Italy, which increased their generation by 26% and 11%, respectively. In contrast, the Iberian markets reduced their wind energy production. In Spain it decreased by 19% and in Portugal by 32%.
Compared to April 2025, only the German market increased its wind energy production, with a growth of 36%. In the rest of the main markets analysed, production with this technology decreased. Portugal registered the largest drop, 40%, followed by Spain, with a decrease of 24%. Italy showed the smallest decrease, 6.7%, while in France it fell by 7.3%.
In May 2025, Germany and Italy reached their second highest volume of wind energy production for a May month, with 9719 GWh and 1870 GWh, respectively. In both cases, these values represent the highest in the last four years for that month. France achieved its third highest historical wind energy production for a May, with 3425 GWh. In contrast, the Iberian Peninsula registered its lowest levels for that month in the last five years in Portugal, with 738 GWh, and in the last seven years in Spain, with 3355 GWh.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.Electricity demand
In May 2025, electricity demand decreased in most major European markets compared to the same period in 2024. The British market registered the largest drop, 6.1%, followed by a 2.9% decrease in the Belgian market. Spain showed the smallest decrease, 1.0%, while France and Italy both showed declines of 2.6%. On the other hand, the German and Portuguese markets registered increases of 0.3% and 1.0%, respectively.
Compared to April 2025, most major European electricity markets also reduced their demand in May. France led the declines with 9.7%, while Spain registered the smallest decrease, 0.2%. Portugal, Germany, Belgium and Great Britain followed this trend, with declines ranging from 1.0% in the Portuguese market to 8.0% in the British market. Italy, on the other hand, maintained the same level of demand as the previous month.
In most analysed markets, May 2025 registered lower average temperatures than the same month in 2024. Italy, Great Britain, Belgium and Germany registered decreases in average temperatures, ranging from 0.3 °C in Italy to 2.5 °C in Germany. In contrast, Portugal, Spain and France registered year‑on‑year increases of 0.3 °C, 0.4 °C and 0.5 °C, respectively.
As usual as summer approaches, average temperatures were higher in all analysed markets compared to April 2025. The German market showed the smallest increase, 2.2 °C, while the Italian market registered the largest rise, 3.6 °C. In the British, Belgian, Portuguese, French and Spanish markets, average temperature increases ranged from 2.6 °C in the Great Britain to 3.0 °C in Spain.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
In the month of May 2025, the monthly average price was below €70/MWh in most major European electricity markets. The exceptions were the N2EX market of the United Kingdom and the IPEX market of Italy, which averaged €82.36/MWh and €93.58/MWh, respectively. In contrast, the MIBEL market of Spain and the EPEX SPOT market of France registered the lowest monthly prices, €16.93/MWh and €19.38/MWh, respectively. In the rest of the European electricity markets analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, the averages ranged from €25.79/MWh in the MIBEL market of Portugal to €67.34/MWh in the EPEX SPOT market of Germany.
The price difference between the Spanish and Portuguese markets, which are usually very closely coupled, is noteworthy. This divergence is explained by the measures adopted by Portugal to restrict energy imports from Spain after the blackout that affected the Iberian Peninsula on April 28, which caused a 63% year‑on‑year drop in Spanish exports to the neighbouring country. This situation also coincided with a high level of renewable energy production in Spain, including solar, hydroelectric and wind energy, which contributed to the drop in prices and positioned the Spanish market as the one with the lowest monthly average among the main European electricity markets.
Compared to April, average prices fell in all European electricity markets analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting. The Spanish and French markets reached the largest percentage price declines, 37% and 54%, respectively. In contrast, the Portuguese market registered the smallest decrease, of only 0.4%. In the remaining markets, prices fell between 6.3% in the Italian market and 17% in the Belgian market.
Comparing the average prices for the month of May with those registered in the same month of 2024, prices also decreased in most analysed markets. The German market, the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries and the Belgian market were the exceptions, with increases of 1.3%, 3.9% and 12%, respectively. On the other hand, the French and Spanish markets registered the largest percentage price falls, 29% and 44%, respectively. In the other markets, price decreases ranged from 1.4% in the Italian market to 16% in the Portuguese market.
As a result of these price decreases, in May 2025, the French market reached its lowest monthly price since June 2020. The Spanish, Italian, Dutch and Portuguese markets registered their lowest averages since May 2024. Germany’s monthly average was the lowest since June 2024, while Belgium’s average was the lowest since August 2024. In the case of the British and Nordic markets, in May 2025, they registered their lowest averages since September and November 2024, respectively.
In the month of May 2025, the slight decrease in the monthly gas price, the increase in solar energy production and the fall in electricity demand compared to the previous month favoured the fall in prices in the European electricity markets. In the case of the German market, in addition, wind energy production increased.
On the other hand, in May 2025, CO2 emission allowance prices were lower than in May 2024. Electricity demand was also lower in most cases. In addition, solar and wind energy production increased in most markets. These factors contributed to the year‑on‑year price declines in most European electricity markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market registered a monthly average price of $64.01/bbl in May 2025. According to data analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was the lowest monthly average since March 2021. This value was 3.7% lower than the average reached by April 2025 Front‑Month futures, $66.46/bbl, and 23% lower than that of Front‑Month futures traded in May 2024, $83.00/bbl.
Despite the easing of trade tensions in the first weeks of the month, concerns about demand persisted in May, driving Brent oil futures prices lower. The possibility of a nuclear deal that would lift sanctions on Iranian oil also exerted downward pressure on prices. In addition, OPEC+ production increases contributed to falling prices in May.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, the average value registered during the month of May 2025 for these futures was €35.30/MWh. According to data analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this is the lowest monthly average since August 2024. Compared to the average of Front‑Month futures traded in April, €35.41/MWh, the May average fell by 0.3%. Compared to the Front‑Month futures traded in May 2024, when the average price was €32.07/MWh, there was an increase of 10%.
In May, liquefied natural gas demand levels in Asia, as well as supply disruptions from Norway in the second half of the month, exerted their upward influence on TTF gas futures prices. However, concerns caused by trade tensions put downward pressure on prices. As a result, in May, the monthly average price was similar to that of the previous month.
In the case of CO₂ emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2025, they reached an average price of €71.38/t in May. According to data analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this monthly price rose by 9.2% compared to the April average, which was €65.37/t. Compared to the May 2024 average, €76.07/t, the May 2025 average was 6.2% lower.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe and energy storage
AleaStorage division of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting provides advanced solutions for the optimisation and management of energy storage systems. AleaStorage services include revenue and profitability calculation for systems with energy storage, as well as optimal storage sizing in hybrid systems. These services are available for stand‑alone battery projects, hybrid systems of renewable technologies, such as wind or solar energy, with batteries, hybrid self‑consumption systems with batteries and other hybrid systems, such as hydraulics, cogeneration or consumption.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
