AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, September 22, 2025. In the third week of September, most major European electricity markets registered declines in their weekly prices, which in many cases fell below €60/MWh, favored by increased solar energy production, the recovery of wind energy production in Germany and Italy, and a slight decline in gas prices. However, Spain, Portugal and France broke the trend with increases, while Italy remained above €100/MWh for most of the week. During this period, Spain, Portugal and France set new historical records for solar photovoltaic energy production for a day in September. Germany and Portugal also stood out for increases in wind energy generation. On September 18, CO2 futures reached their highest settlement price since mid‑February, €77.82/t.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the week of September 15, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in most major European electricity markets compared to the previous week. After the declines registered the previous week, the French and Italian markets had the largest increases, 25% and 20%, respectively. The German market registered a 10% increase in solar energy production after four consecutive weeks of decreases. Spain registered the smallest increase, 0.8%, but this was the third consecutive week of growth.
Three major European markets registered new all‑time highs for photovoltaic energy production for a day in September. The Spanish and Portuguese markets beat the records of the previous week, generating 204 GWh and 26 GWh on September 15 and 17, respectively. Two days later, on September 19, the French market registered its record, with 131 GWh generated.
Despite the daily record, Portuguese solar energy production fell by 3.3% week‑on‑week.
During the week of September 22, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts, the upward trend will reverse and solar photovoltaic energy production will fall in Spain, Italy and Germany.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.In the week of September 15, wind energy production increased in the German and Italian markets compared to the second week of September, by 93% and 2.0% respectively, extending the increases registered in the last three and two weeks in each market. In contrast, wind energy production fell in Portugal, Spain and France, by 39%, 4.2% and 1.5%, respectively. This was the second consecutive week of declines in France and Spain, while in Portugal the downward trend reversed the previous week’s increase.
On September 16, wind energy generation in Germany totaled 944 GWh, the highest since mid‑January 2025. Meanwhile, on September 21, in the Portuguese market daily wind energy production reached 73 GWh, a level not seen since late April 2025.
In the week of September 22, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts, wind energy production will decrease in the German, French, Spanish, Portuguese and Italian markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.Electricity demand
In the week of September 15, electricity demand increased in most major European electricity markets compared to the previous week. The Spanish and British markets registered the largest rises, 5.7% and 4.3% respectively, reversing the downward trend of the previous week. Portugal, France and Germany registered smaller demand increases, 1.9%, 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively. This was the fourth consecutive week of rising demand in Portugal and Germany, while in France demand grew for the second week in a row. In contrast, demand fell in Belgium and Italy, by 1.3% and 1.1%, respectively. In Belgium this was the second consecutive week of declines, while in Italy the downward trend followed four consecutive weeks of growth.
During the week, average temperatures increased in all analyzed markets, ranging from 0.1 °C in Italy to 1.9 °C in Germany.
For the week of September 22, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts, demand will increase in the French, British and Belgian markets. However, in the Portuguese, Spanish, German and Italian markets, demand will decrease.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
In the third week of September, average prices decreased in most major European electricity markets compared to the previous week. The exceptions were the MIBEL market of Spain and Portugal, with a 21% increase, and the EPEX SPOT market of France, with a 25% increase. The IPEX market of Italy registered the smallest price decrease, 1.4%. In contrast, the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries registered the largest percentage price drop, 53%. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices fell between 19% in the N2EX market of the United Kingdom and 45% in the EPEX SPOT market of Germany.
In the week of September 15, weekly averages were below €60/MWh in most European electricity markets. The exceptions were the Spanish, Portuguese and Italian markets, whose averages were €74.34/MWh, €74.39/MWh and €109.61/MWh, respectively. The Nordic market registered the lowest weekly average, €21.55/MWh. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices ranged from €32.91/MWh in the French market to €58.33/MWh in the British market.
Regarding daily prices, on Sunday, September 21, the Nordic market reached the lowest average of the week among the analyzed markets, €2.57/MWh. On the other hand, on Monday, September 15, daily prices in most European electricity markets were below €15/MWh. On that day, the German market registered its lowest price since January 2. The Belgian, British and Dutch markets reached their lowest prices since May, while the French market registered its lowest price since June.
Meanwhile, the Italian market registered daily prices above €100/MWh for most of the third week of September. On September 19, this market registered the highest daily average of the week, €116.05/MWh.
In the week of September 15, the increase in solar energy production and the slight decline in weekly gas prices favored the fall in prices in most European electricity markets. In addition, demand fell in Belgium and Italy, while wind energy production increased in the German and Italian markets. In contrast, in Spain, France and Portugal, higher demand and lower wind energy production contributed to price increases. In Portugal, solar energy production also fell.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that, in the fourth week of September, prices will rise in most major European electricity markets compared to the previous week, influenced by decreases in wind and solar energy production. In addition, demand will increase in some markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
In the first sessions of the third week of September, settlement prices of Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market continued the upward trend that began at the end of the previous week. On Tuesday, September 16, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $68.47/bbl. Afterwards, prices fell. On Friday, September 19, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $66.68/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 0.5% lower than the previous Friday.
Planned production increases by OPEC+, as well as concerns about demand, kept Brent oil futures prices below $69/bbl during the third week of September. Interest rate cuts in the United States added to concerns about oil demand, as these cuts reflect the country’s economic and labor situation, which could have negative consequences on demand.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, on Monday, September 15, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €32.15/MWh. Subsequently, prices rose. As a result, on Thursday, September 18, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €32.95/MWh. On Friday, September 19, after a 2.0% decrease compared to the previous day, the settlement price was €32.31/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 1.1% lower than the previous Friday.
In the third week of September, abundant liquefied natural gas supply, along with lower gas demand due to mild temperatures and high wind energy production, kept TTF gas futures prices below €33/MWh.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2025, settlement prices were above €76/t during the third week of September. On Monday, September 15, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €76.75/t. In contrast, on Thursday, September 18, these futures registered their weekly maximum settlement price, €77.82/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was the highest since February 15. On Friday, September 19, the price was slightly lower, €77.55/t. Even so, this price was 2.3% higher than the previous Friday.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe, batteries and self‑consumption
On Thursday, September 18, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting held the 58th edition of its monthly webinar series. In addition to the evolution of European energy markets, the webinar analyzed the prospects for battery energy storage and self‑consumption. The event also included a presentation on AleaSoft services to improve the strategy, management and planning of retailers.
In the analysis table of the webinar in Spanish, the guest speakers were Xavier Cugat, BESS Technical Director at Seraphim, Francisco Valverde, independent professional for the renewable energy development, and Alejandro Diego Rosell, energy communicator and consultant, Director of Studies at World Wide Recruitment and Lecturer at EOI.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
