AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, January 13, 2026. In December 2025, prices in most major European electricity markets fell compared to November and stood below €90/MWh, although they were higher than in October. The Iberian and French markets reached their highest levels since March and April, respectively. Photovoltaic energy production set records for a December month in Germany, Italy and France, wind energy production increased year on year in several markets and demand rose. In the futures markets, TTF gas and Brent registered their lowest monthly averages since April 2024 and February 2021, respectively, while CO₂ reached its highest level at least since January 2024.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In December 2025, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in some of the main European markets compared to the same month of the previous year. Germany registered the largest increase, 45%, followed by rises of 19% in France and 11% in Italy. By contrast, in the Iberian market photovoltaic energy production fell, led by Portugal with a 14% decrease, followed by Spain, which registered a 10% drop.
Compared to November 2025, solar photovoltaic energy production declined in the main European electricity markets, due to the reduction in sunshine hours and solar irradiation, typical of the autumn and winter months. In this context, the German and Spanish markets registered the largest month‑on‑month falls, 36% and 30%, respectively. The Portuguese market showed the smallest decline, 22%, while Italy and France registered reductions of 24% and 23%, respectively.
Several of the main European markets registered all‑time records for solar photovoltaic energy production for a December month. Germany reached the highest production, with 1588 GWh, followed by Italy with 1292 GWh and France with 1093 GWh.
According to data from Red Eléctrica, between December 2024 and December 2025 the Spanish market added 8312 MW of solar photovoltaic capacity. Over the same period, the Portuguese market added 941 MW to the system, according to data from REN.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.Wind energy production increased in December 2025 in most major European electricity markets compared to December 2024. France registered the largest increase, 8.2%, followed by Portugal with 7.5%, while Spain registered the smallest rise, 1.8%. Italy and Germany were the exception, registering declines of 45% and 4.8%, respectively, in their wind energy production.
Compared to the previous month, wind energy production increased in only two of the main European electricity markets. Germany registered the largest increase, 19%, followed by France with 5.3%. On the other hand, Portugal registered the smallest fall, 7.7%, while Italy and Spain registered declines of 21% and 27%, respectively.
In December 2025, the French market reached its second‑highest wind energy production for a December month, with 5730 GWh, after the record registered in December 2023.
According to data from Red Eléctrica, between December 2024 and December 2025, the Spanish market added 1019 MW of new wind capacity. Over the same period, the Portuguese market added 36 MW to the system, according to data from REN.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.Electricity demand
In December 2025, electricity demand increased in most major European markets compared to the same month of the previous year. The Portuguese market registered the largest increase, 6.4%, while the Italian market registered the smallest rise, 1.3%. The British, German, Belgian and Spanish markets registered increases of 1.5%, 2.5%, 3.9% and 4.3%, respectively. By contrast, demand declined year on year in the French market, which registered a decrease of 1.9%.
Compared to November 2025, demand also increased in most major European markets. France registered the largest increase, 9.3%, while Great Britain registered the smallest, 1.5%. The Spanish, Portuguese and Belgian markets registered increases ranging from 4.2% in Spain to 7.4% in Belgium. On the other hand, demand fell in the Italian and German markets, with declines of 1.2% and 2.9%, respectively.
Average temperatures were higher than in the same month of 2024 in Germany, Portugal, Belgium, France and Italy, with increases ranging from 0.2 °C in Germany and Portugal to 1.3 °C in Italy. By contrast, Spain and Great Britain registered decreases of 0.1 °C and 0.8 °C, respectively.
On the other hand, average temperatures in December were lower than those of the previous month in all analysed markets. The Iberian Peninsula registered the largest drop, 2.8 °C in Portugal and 2.9 °C in Spain. In the remaining markets, average temperatures fell between 1.9 °C in France and 2.5 °C in Belgium.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
In December 2025, the monthly average price was below €90/MWh in most major European electricity markets. The exceptions were the EPEX SPOT market of Germany and the IPEX market of Italy, whose monthly average prices were €93.47/MWh and €115.49/MWh, respectively. The Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries registered the lowest monthly price, €52.99/MWh. In the rest of the European electricity markets analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, averages ranged from €68.73/MWh in the EPEX SPOT market of France to €87.70/MWh in the EPEX SPOT market of the Netherlands.
Compared to November, average prices fell in most European electricity markets analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting. The French market and the MIBEL market of Portugal and Spain were the exceptions, with increases of 16%, 32% and 33%, respectively. The Belgian and Italian markets registered the smallest declines, 1.0% and 1.4%, respectively. By contrast, the Nordic market registered the largest percentage price fall, 13%. In the remaining markets, prices fell between 2.2% in the N2EX market of the United Kingdom and 8.3% in the German market.
Although prices fell compared to November in most markets, December prices were higher than those of October in the European electricity markets. This also occurred in the Spanish, French and Portuguese markets, where prices rose compared to November. In December, Spain and Portugal registered their highest prices since March 2025, while France reached its highest average since April 2025.
Comparing the average prices of December with those registered in the same month of 2024, prices also fell in most markets. The Nordic market was the exception, with an increase of 66%. The Spanish, French and Portuguese markets registered the largest percentage price drops, 30% in all three cases. In the remaining markets, price declines ranged from 14% in the German and Italian markets to 21% in the British market.
In December 2025, the fall in gas prices compared to the previous month favoured the decrease in European electricity market prices. In addition, in the German and Italian markets, electricity demand fell compared to November, while wind energy production increased in Germany. By contrast, the rise in demand in the Spanish, French and Portuguese markets, together with the fall in wind energy production in the Iberian Peninsula, contributed to price increases in those markets.
On the other hand, the fall in gas prices in December 2025 compared to December 2024 also contributed to the year‑on‑year price decline in European electricity markets. In addition, wind energy production increased in France, Spain and Portugal, while solar energy production rose in the German, French and Italian markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market registered a monthly average price of $61.63/bbl in December 2025. According to data analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this monthly average was the lowest since February 2021. This value was 3.2% lower than that reached by the November 2025 Front‑Month futures, $63.66/bbl. It was also 16% lower than that corresponding to the Front‑Month futures traded in December 2024, $73.13/bbl.
In December, despite tensions between the United States and Venezuela and Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, concern about demand evolution continued to exert downward pressure on Brent oil futures prices. The possibility that a peace agreement for Ukraine could lead to the lifting of sanctions on Russian oil, increasing global supply, also contributed to the price decline. In addition, oil production increased in Iraq.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, the average value registered during December 2025 was €27.62/MWh. According to data analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was the lowest monthly average since April 2024. Compared to the average of the Front‑Month futures traded in November, €30.77/MWh, the December average fell by 10%. Compared to the Front‑Month futures traded in December 2024, when the average price was €45.15/MWh, there was a decline of 39%.
Abundant liquefied natural gas supply and gas flows from Norway contributed to the fall in the monthly price of TTF gas futures in December. Peace talks for Ukraine, which could result in an increase in Russian gas supply, also exerted downward pressure on prices. However, the shutdown of one of the liquefaction trains at the Freeport export plant in the third week of the month, forecasts of low temperatures in January and European storage levels limited the fall in the monthly average.
Regarding CO₂ emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2026, they reached an average price in December of €86.24/t. According to data analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was the highest monthly average at least since January 2024. This monthly price increased by 3.6% compared to the November average, which was €83.28/t. Compared to the December 2024 average, which was €71.03/t, the December 2025 average was 21% higher.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on energy storage
The AleaStorage division of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting provides forecasting reports for energy storage projects. AleaStorage services include revenue and profitability calculations, as well as optimal storage sizing in hybrid systems. AleaStorage has developed successful cases in long‑term revenue calculations for both stand‑alone batteries and hybrid systems, mainly for photovoltaic energy systems with batteries.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.