AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, March 9, 2026. In the first week of March, prices in most major European electricity markets increased compared to the previous week and most markets reached weekly averages above €80/MWh. Italy and the United Kingdom registered the highest daily price since February 2025. Higher gas prices, as a consequence of the conflict in Iran, supported these increases. TTF gas futures registered the highest settlement price since February 2025, while Brent futures reached their highest level since September 2023.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the week of March 2, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in the German and French markets compared to the previous week. The German market registered the largest increase, 59%, and maintained the upward trend for the fifth consecutive week. The French market registered the smallest growth, 6.1%, and accumulated its third consecutive week of increases.
In contrast, the Iberian and Italian markets registered a shift to a downward trend after the increases of previous weeks. The Spanish market registered the largest drop, 24%, followed by a 17% decrease in the Italian market, while the Portuguese market registered the smallest decline, 14%.
During the week of March 9, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts indicate that production will increase in the Spanish and Italian markets. In contrast, the German market will register a shift to a downward trend.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.During the first week of March, wind energy production increased in most major European markets compared to the previous week. The Iberian markets registered the largest increases, 103% in Spain and 32% in Portugal, and reversed the downward trend of the previous two weeks. The Italian market registered the smallest growth, 14%.
In contrast, the French and German markets accumulated declines for the second consecutive week. This time, the German market registered the largest drop in production using this technology, 63%, while the French market registered a 47% decline.
In the second week of March, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts, production using this technology will increase in the French and German markets, which will reverse the downward trend. However, the Iberian and Italian markets will register declines in wind energy production.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.Electricity demand
In the first week of March, electricity demand decreased in most major European markets compared to the previous week. The Belgian market registered the largest drop, 5.2%, followed by the 4.4% decline in the German market. Both markets accumulated their second consecutive week of decreases. The French and Italian markets maintained the downward trend for the third and fifth consecutive weeks, with declines of 1.8% and 0.8%, respectively. The exceptions were the Iberian Peninsula and Great Britain markets, where demand increased. The Spanish market registered the largest increase, 6.2%, while the Portuguese and British markets registered growth of 2.1% and 3.0%, respectively.
During the week, average temperatures were colder than the previous week in most analyzed markets. Great Britain and Germany registered the largest temperature drops, 1.2 °C and 1.0 °C, respectively. Spain registered the smallest decrease, 0.5 °C, while in Portugal the temperature dropped by 0.7 °C. In contrast, in France, Belgium and Italy, average temperatures increased between 0.2 °C in France and 0.8 °C in Italy.
For the second week of March, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts indicate that demand will increase in most analyzed markets, except in the Italian and German markets, where it will decrease.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
Prices in the main European electricity markets increased rapidly in the first sessions of the week of March 2, reaching their highest values on March 4 or March 5. Later, prices decreased slightly, although they remained above the levels of the previous week. As a result, weekly average prices in most markets increased compared to the previous week. The Nordic market was the exception with a slight decrease of 0.3%. The Spanish, Portuguese and French markets registered the largest percentage price increases, 134%, 142% and 192%, respectively. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices increased between 32% in the Italian market and 81% in the Belgian market.
In the week of March 2, weekly averages were above €80/MWh in most major European electricity markets. The exceptions were the Portuguese, Spanish and French markets, with averages of €55.54/MWh, €56.85/MWh and €65.50/MWh, respectively. The Italian market registered the highest weekly average, €141.28/MWh. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices ranged between €83.92/MWh in the Nordic market and €125.69/MWh in the British market.
Regarding daily prices, on Monday, March 2, the Spanish market reached the lowest daily average of the week among the analyzed markets, €18.36/MWh. That day, the Portuguese market registered the second lowest daily price, €18.39/MWh. These markets also registered daily prices below €30/MWh on Tuesday, March 3, while the French market did so on Monday.
On the other hand, during the first week of March, daily prices remained above €120/MWh in the Italian market. The German, British, Belgian and Dutch markets also registered prices above €100/MWh in some sessions that week. On March 4, the Italian market reached the highest daily average of the week among the analyzed markets, €165.74/MWh. This value was the highest average in the Italian market since February 14, 2025. On March 4, the British market reached a daily price of €143.71/MWh, the highest in that market since February 15, 2025. However, on Monday, March 9, the price in the British market was even higher, €149.95/MWh, although it remained below the price registered on February 14, 2025.
In the week of March 2, the increase in gas prices drove higher prices in most European electricity markets. The decrease in wind energy production in Germany and France, as well as the decrease in solar energy production in Spain, Italy and Portugal, also contributed to higher prices in those markets. In addition, demand increased in the British, Spanish and Portuguese markets.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that, in the second week of March, gas prices may remain high or even continue increasing depending on the evolution of the conflict in Iran, which would place upward pressure on European electricity market prices. In addition, the increase in demand in most markets will favor price increases. This situation will combine with lower solar energy production in Germany, while wind energy production will decrease in the Iberian Peninsula and Italy.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, RTE, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market reached their weekly minimum settlement price, $77.74/bbl, on Monday, March 2. During the first week of March, prices followed an upward trend. As a result, on Friday, March 6, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $92.69/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 28% higher than the previous Friday and the highest since September 30, 2023.
Concerns about supply due to the conflict in the Middle East drove Brent oil futures prices higher during the first week of March. Attacks on oil facilities and the suspension of maritime transport through the Strait of Hormuz as a result of the war triggered these concerns.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, they reached their weekly minimum settlement price, €44.51/MWh, on Monday, March 2. This price already was 39% higher than the previous Friday. After another 22% increase compared to Monday, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €54.29/MWh, on Tuesday, March 3. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price marked the highest level since February 13, 2025. Prices declined on March 4 and then increased again in the last sessions of the first week of March. On Friday, March 6, the settlement price was €53.39/MWh. This price stood 67% higher than the previous Friday.
During the first week of March, rising instability in the Middle East pushed TTF gas futures prices upward. Disruptions at Qatari liquefied natural gas facilities, together with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, increased concerns about supply. The possibility of negotiations to reach a solution to the conflict between the United States and Iran put downward pressure on prices on March 4. However, in the last sessions of the week, prices increased again after statements from the Russian president threatening to interrupt supplies to Europe. Low European storage levels also contributed to the price increase during the first week of March. Currently, European storage stands below 30%, with levels under 15% in some countries.
Regarding settlement prices of CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2026, they increased to their weekly maximum, €73.33/t, on Tuesday, March 3. However, during the last three sessions of the week, settlement prices remained below €71/t. On Thursday, March 5, these futures reached their weekly minimum settlement price, €70.36/t. On Friday, March 6, the settlement price rose slightly to €70.59/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 0.4% higher than the previous Friday.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe, storage and project financing
Next Thursday, March 12, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will hold the 64th edition of its monthly webinar series, with the participation of EY for the sixth consecutive year. This time, the webinar will address the evolution of European energy markets and the prospects for spring 2026, the main milestones for 2026 in the energy sector, regulation and prospects for energy storage and capacity markets, financing of renewable energy and storage projects, the importance of PPA and self‑consumption, as well as the main considerations to take into account in portfolio valuation.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.