AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, March 2, 2026. In the last week of February, prices in most major European electricity markets fell compared to the previous week and remained mostly below €75/MWh. Photovoltaic energy production set records for a February day in the main European markets, while wind energy production declined and electricity demand decreased. On Friday, the 27th, Brent futures reached their highest settlement price since June 2025. Looking ahead to the first week of March, gas evolution, amid the escalation of the conflict in Iran, will play a key role in price evolution.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the week of February 23, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in the main European markets compared to the previous week. The German market registered the largest increase, 132%, and the French market followed with a 52% rise in production. The Italian market registered the smallest growth, 5.3%, extending its upward streak to five consecutive weeks. In the Iberian markets, production using this technology grew by 14% in Portugal and 24% in Spain. The German, Spanish and Portuguese markets marked their fourth consecutive week of increases.
During the week, the markets set solar photovoltaic energy production records for a February day. On February 23, the Spanish market reached its second‑highest production for a February day, 148 GWh. On February 26, the Italian and French markets set all‑time records for solar photovoltaic energy production on a February day, with 110 GWh and 92 GWh, respectively. That same day, the Portuguese market achieved its second‑highest production for a February day, 20 GWh. Meanwhile, on Friday, February 27, the German market set a new all‑time high for this month, with 251 GWh of solar photovoltaic energy production.
For the first week of March, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts indicate that production will increase in the German and Italian markets. By contrast, the Spanish market will register a decline.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.During the last week of February, wind energy production decreased in the main European markets compared to the previous week. The Italian market registered the largest decline, 78%, reversing the previous week’s upward trend. The Spanish and French markets followed, with drops of 58% and 38%, respectively. The Portuguese market registered the smallest decline, 14%, while wind energy production in the German market fell by 15%. In the Iberian Peninsula, declines continued for a second consecutive week, while in the French market wind energy production reversed its upward trend after three weeks of increases.
In the week of March 2, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts, production with this technology will increase in the Iberian and Italian markets. By contrast, the French and German markets will register declines in wind energy production.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.Electricity demand
In the week of February 23, electricity demand decreased in the main European markets compared to the previous week. The French market registered the largest decline, 13%, marking its second consecutive week of decreases. The British and German markets followed, with drops of 8.7% and 8.6%, respectively. The Spanish market registered the smallest decline, 1.9%, accumulating five consecutive weeks of decreases. The Italian, Portuguese and Belgian markets registered decreases of 2.5%, 3.6% and 6.4%, respectively. Italy and Great Britain registered their fourth consecutive week of declines, while Portugal marked its third consecutive week of decreases.
At the same time, average temperatures were milder than the previous week in all analyzed markets, contributing to the decrease in electricity demand. Spain and Portugal registered the smallest temperature increases, 0.4 °C and 0.6 °C, respectively. In Italy, France, Great Britain, Belgium and Germany, average temperatures rose between 1.2 °C in Italy and 6.8 °C in Germany.
For the week of March 2, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts indicate that demand will increase in most analyzed markets, except in the Italian market, where it will decline.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
Prices in most major European electricity markets reached their highest values of the week on Tuesday, February 24, and then declined. As a result, weekly average prices in most markets fell compared to the previous week. However, the British and Italian markets registered slightly higher averages than the previous week, with increases of 0.7% and 1.8%, respectively. The Iberian market also registered increases, 18% in Spain and 55% in Portugal. In the remaining markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices fell between 9.4% in the Dutch market and 22% in the Belgian market.
In the week of February 23, weekly averages were below €75/MWh in most European electricity markets. The exceptions were the British, Nordic and Italian markets, with averages of €82.54/MWh, €84.21/MWh and €106.67/MWh, respectively. In contrast, the French, Portuguese and Spanish markets registered the lowest weekly averages, €22.43/MWh, €22.98/MWh and €24.28/MWh, respectively. In the remaining markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices ranged between €57.08/MWh in the Belgian market and €74.94/MWh in the German market.
Regarding daily prices, on Friday, February 27, the Belgian and French markets reached the lowest daily average of the week among the analyzed markets, €12.70/MWh. For the Belgian market, this was the lowest daily price since October 6, 2025. In the fourth week of February, the Spanish and Portuguese markets also registered some daily prices below €20/MWh. Meanwhile, on Sunday, March 1, the German market reached its lowest price since January 2, 2026, €52.93/MWh, while the Nordic market registered its lowest daily price since January 3, €67.86/MWh.
On the other hand, during the fourth week of February, daily prices remained above €100/MWh in the Italian market. On Tuesday, February 24, the German, Dutch and Nordic markets also registered prices above €100/MWh. That day, the Nordic market reached the highest daily average of the week among the analyzed markets, €115.74/MWh.
In the week of February 23, the increase in solar energy production and the decline in demand favored price decreases in most major European electricity markets. However, the notable drop in wind energy production in the Iberian Peninsula and Italy contributed to price increases in the Spanish, Italian and Portuguese markets. In Portugal, hydroelectric energy production also decreased.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that, in the first week of March, the evolution of gas prices will be one of the main factors influencing European electricity market prices. The escalation of the conflict in Iran could affect gas prices. In this context, prices will increase in most major European electricity markets. Rising demand will also influence them. The decrease in wind energy production in Germany and France will contribute to price increases in those markets. In contrast, the increase in wind energy production in the Iberian Peninsula could exert downward pressure on prices in the Spanish and Portuguese markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
During the fourth week of February, settlement prices of Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market showed a mostly downward trend until Thursday, February 26. On that day, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $70.75/bbl. However, on Friday, February 27, after a 2.4% increase compared to the previous day, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $72.48/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 1.0% higher than the previous Friday and the highest since June 21, 2025.
During the fourth week of February, concerns about demand due to new US tariffs, as well as the possibility of further production increases by OPEC+, exerted downward pressure on Brent oil futures prices. However, rising tensions in the Middle East supported prices at the end of the week. On the other hand, OPEC+ agreed to resume its production increases in April at the meeting held on Sunday, March 1. Despite this, prices could continue to rise in the first week of March as the conflict between the United States and Iran affects Iranian production and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
As for settlement prices of TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, during the fourth week of February, they remained above €30/MWh. On Tuesday, February 24, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €30.89/MWh. Prices then increased, reaching their weekly maximum settlement price, €32.22/MWh, on Thursday, February 26. On Friday, February 27, the settlement price was slightly lower, €31.96/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 0.2% lower than the previous Friday.
High liquefied natural gas supplies and increased renewable energy production kept prices below €32/MWh during the first sessions of the fourth week of February despite low European storage levels. However, fears of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz as tensions in the Middle East increased drove prices higher in the last sessions of the fourth week of February. Supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz could push prices up in the first week of March.
Regarding settlement prices of CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2026, they remained above €70/t during the fourth week of February. On February 25, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €72.60/t. However, prices declined in the last sessions of the week. As a result, on Friday, February 27, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €70.29/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 4.7% lower than the previous Friday.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe, storage and renewable energy project financing
On Thursday, March 12, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will hold the 64th edition of its monthly webinar series. This event will feature the participation of EY for the sixth consecutive year. The webinar will analyze the evolution of European energy markets and the prospects for spring 2026, the main milestones for 2026 in the energy sector, regulation and prospects for energy storage and capacity markets, financing of renewable energy and storage projects, the importance of PPA and self‑consumption, as well as the main considerations to take into account in portfolio valuation.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.