AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, October 13, 2025. In the second week of October, weekly prices in most major European electricity markets exceeded €75/MWh and were higher than the previous week. Several markets registered daily prices above €100/MWh. The increase in electricity demand in most markets, together with higher gas and CO₂ prices, drove this rise in prices. The decline in solar and wind energy production in several markets also contributed to this rise. In Italy, photovoltaic energy production reached its highest level for a day in October. Meanwhile, CO₂ futures maintained their upward trend and reached their highest value since mid‑February, €79.69/t.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the second week of October, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in the Italian and French markets compared to the previous week. Italy registered the largest increase, 11%, while in France production rose by 3.4%. Both markets maintained their upward trend for the second consecutive week. In contrast, the German and Iberian markets registered decreases over the same period. Germany registered the largest drop, 50%, followed by Portugal with an 8.5% decline. Spain registered the smallest decrease, 6.8%, maintaining a downward trend for the third consecutive week.
On Monday, October 6, the Italian market reached its highest photovoltaic energy production ever registered for a day in October, generating 115 GWh. On the same day, the Portuguese market reached its second‑highest production for an October month, 23 GWh, after the record set on October 3.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts indicate that solar energy generation will recover in the German market during the third week of October, while it will decrease in the Italian and Spanish markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.During the week of October 6, wind energy production increased in the Iberian markets compared to the previous week. Portugal registered the largest increase, 16%, while in Spain the rise was 13%. Both markets reversed the downward trend of the previous week. On the other hand, wind energy generation decreased in France, Germany and Italy. France registered the largest drop, 49%, followed by Germany and Italy, with declines of 24% and 20%, respectively.
For the week of October 13, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts indicate an increase in wind energy generation in France, while it will decrease in Portugal, Italy, Spain and Germany.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.Electricity demand
In the week of October 6, electricity demand increased in most major European markets compared to the previous week. The British market registered the largest rise, 6.0%, followed by Germany, where demand grew by 3.9%, driven by the resumption of work activity after the national holiday on October 3, German Unity Day. The Portuguese market showed the smallest increase, 0.1%, while France, Italy and Belgium registered rises of 1.1%, 1.2% and 1.3%, respectively. In contrast, demand in the Spanish market decreased by 1.0%, influenced by the national holiday on October 12, Hispanic Day.
During the week, average temperatures were higher than the previous week in most analyzed markets. The increases ranged from 0.2 °C in Italy and Great Britain to 2.0 °C in Germany. In contrast, France, Portugal and Spain registered decreases of 0.2 °C, 0.5 °C and 0.8 °C, respectively.
For the week of October 13, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts indicate that demand will increase in Italy and Great Britain, while it will fall in Germany, France, Spain, Belgium and Portugal.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
In the second week of October, average prices in most major European electricity markets rose compared to the previous week. The exception was the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries, with an 18% decline. The IPEX market of Italy showed the smallest price increase, 8.9%. In contrast, the EPEX SPOT market of France registered the largest percentage price rise, 83%. In the remaining markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices increased between 15% in the MIBEL market of Spain and 51% in the EPEX SPOT market of Belgium.
In the week of October 6, weekly averages exceeded €75/MWh in most European electricity markets. The exception was the Nordic market, with an average of €28.85/MWh. The Dutch, German and Italian markets registered the highest weekly averages, €101.74/MWh, €103.27/MWh and €111.11/MWh, respectively. In the remaining markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices ranged between €78.47/MWh in the French market and €97.31/MWh in the N2EX market of the United Kingdom.
Regarding daily prices, the Nordic market was the only one that remained below €55/MWh during the second week of October. On Saturday, October 11, this market registered the lowest daily average of the week among the analyzed markets, €5.61/MWh. In contrast, the German, Belgian, British, Italian and Dutch markets registered daily prices above €100/MWh. On October 7, the German market reached the highest daily average of the week, €137.96/MWh.
In the week of October 6, the rise in weekly gas and CO₂ emission allowance prices, the increase in demand, as well as the decrease in solar and wind energy production in most markets, led to higher prices in European electricity markets. However, the increase in solar energy production in Italy, the decrease in demand in Spain and the rise in wind energy generation in the Iberian Peninsula helped to limit price increases in the Italian, Spanish and Portuguese markets.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that, in the third week of October, prices will continue to rise in most major European electricity markets, influenced by the decrease in wind energy production. In addition, electricity demand will increase in some markets. However, the combination of lower demand and a recovery in wind energy generation will favor price declines in the French market.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Settlement prices of Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market remained below $67/bbl during the second week of October. On October 8, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $66.25/bbl. In contrast, on Friday, October 10, after a 3.8% decline, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $62.73/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 2.8% lower than the previous Friday and the lowest since May 8.
The easing of tensions in the Middle East exerted downward pressure on Brent oil futures prices. In addition, US crude inventories increased. On Friday, October 10, threats of higher US tariffs on Chinese products contributed to the drop in these futures prices below $63/bbl. A rise in trade tensions between China and the United States could negatively affect the evolution of the economy and demand.
As for settlement prices of TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, on October 6 and 7, they exceeded €33/MWh. On Tuesday, October 7, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €33.25/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was the highest price since August 27. However, during the last three sessions of the second week of October, prices fell. On Friday, October 10, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €32.17/MWh. This price was still 2.3% higher than the previous Friday.
Despite Russian attacks on Ukrainian gas infrastructure, high levels of European reserves helped keep TTF gas futures prices below €33/MWh for most of the second week of October. On average, European reserve levels were above 83% and they exceeded 90% in some countries.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2025, on Tuesday, October 7, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €78.30/t. Prices then increased. As a result, on Friday, October 10, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €79.69/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 0.7% higher than the previous Friday and the highest since February 15.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe and the financing of renewable energy and storage projects
On Thursday, October 9, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting held the 59th edition of its monthly webinar series. On this occasion, the webinar analyzed the evolution and prospects of European energy markets for the winter 2025‑2026, the financing of renewable energy and storage projects, the prospects for batteries and hybridization, as well as the importance of forecasting in audits and portfolio valuation. Speakers from Deloitte participated in the webinar for the sixth consecutive year. Clients and collaborators of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting can request the recording of the webinar.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
