AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, April 20, 2026. In the third week of April, prices in most major European electricity markets rose compared to the previous week, with averages exceeding €95/MWh, although they fell after the highs registered at the start of the week. Demand grew and wind energy production declined, while photovoltaic energy set records for an April day in Spain, France and Portugal. TTF gas futures fell to their lowest level since February.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
During the week of April 13, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in the Iberian Peninsula and France. The Portuguese and Spanish markets reversed the previous week’s downward trend and registered the largest increases, 30% and 28%, respectively. The French market registered the smallest increase, 7.8%. In contrast, the German and Italian markets reversed the previous week’s upward trend and photovoltaic energy production fell by 19% and 17%, respectively.
On Friday, April 17, three markets also set new all‑time records for photovoltaic energy production for an April day. The Spanish market generated 213 GWh of solar energy, while the French market generated 145 GWh and the Portuguese market generated 26 GWh.
For the week of April 20, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts indicate increases in the German and Italian markets, while photovoltaic energy production will decline in the Spanish market.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.During the week of April 13, wind energy production continued the previous week’s downward trend and declined in most major European markets compared to the prior week. The Portuguese market registered the largest drop, 74%, followed by the German market with a 54% decrease. The French and Spanish markets registered smaller declines, 31% and 20%, respectively. The Italian market stood as the exception: after two weeks of declines, wind energy production increased by 74%.
For the week of April 20, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts indicate increases in the Portuguese, French and German markets, while production will decline in the Spanish and Italian markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.Electricity demand
During the week of April 13, electricity demand increased in most major European markets compared to the previous week, reversing the prior downward trend. Demand rose by 9.8% in the German market and by 6.0% in the British market. In the Italian and French markets, demand increased by 4.1% and 2.8%, respectively. The Iberian Peninsula registered the smallest increases: demand rose by 0.9% in Portugal and by 0.3% in Spain. The exception to the positive trend was the Belgian market, where demand fell by 0.1%.
At the same time, average temperatures rose by 2.5 °C in Germany and by 2.1 °C in Italy. In Great Britain, temperatures remained similar to the previous week. In the rest of the analyzed markets, average temperatures declined, ranging from a 0.2 °C drop in Spain and Portugal to a 0.6 °C decrease in France.
For the week of April 20, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts indicate a reversal of the upward trend, with demand decreasing in the German, French, Italian and British markets. Demand will remain stable in Portugal, while it will increase in the Spanish and Belgian markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
In the third week of April, prices in most major European electricity markets reached their highest daily values early in the week and then declined. Even so, the weekly average price increased compared to the previous week. The Italian market registered the smallest increase, 2.7%, while the French market registered the largest percentage price rise, 109%. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices rose between 21% in the British market and 67% in the Nordic market.
In the week of April 13, weekly averages exceeded €95/MWh in most European electricity markets. The Spanish, Portuguese and French markets remained below that level, with averages of €50.38/MWh, €50.73/MWh and €70.93/MWh, respectively. The Italian market reached the highest weekly average, €123.19/MWh. In the remaining markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices ranged from €97.42/MWh in the Nordic market to €109.09/MWh in the German market.
Regarding daily prices, the Spanish market registered the lowest daily average of the week among the analyzed markets, €23.80/MWh, on Monday, April 13. That same day, the Portuguese market also registered a daily price below €25/MWh, €23.88/MWh. Meanwhile, the Italian market reached its lowest daily price since February 23 on Saturday, April 18, €89.39/MWh.
On the other hand, most European electricity markets registered daily prices above €100/MWh during at least one session in the third week of April, with the highest daily prices appearing early in the week. On Tuesday, April 14, the Italian market registered the highest daily average of the week among the analyzed markets, €150.62/MWh. That same day, the Nordic market registered its highest daily price since February 25, €111.14/MWh.
During the week of April 13, rising CO₂ emission allowance prices, declining wind energy production and increasing demand in most markets pushed European electricity market prices upward. In addition, solar energy production declined in the German and Italian markets.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that prices will decline in European electricity markets during the fourth week of April, driven by lower demand and increased wind and solar energy production in most markets. However, gas price movements will also influence price trends in European electricity markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, RTE, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Settlement prices of Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market stayed below $100/bbl during the third week of April. On Thursday, April 16, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $99.39/bbl. After a 9.1% drop from the previous day, on Friday, April 17, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $90.38/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 5.1% lower than the previous Friday and the lowest since March 11.
On Monday, April 13, the settlement price of Brent oil futures exceeded $99/bbl after peace negotiations between the United States and Iran failed. Expectations of new negotiations pushed prices downward in most of the following sessions. However, uncertainty about the outcome of those talks, along with declining US oil inventories, contributed to a price increase on Thursday. Toward the end of the week, the truce between Israel and Lebanon, as well as Iran’s announcement of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, pushed prices downward again.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €46.41/MWh, on Monday, April 13. Prices then followed a mostly downward trend. As a result, on Friday, April 17, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €38.77/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 11% lower than the last session of the previous week and the lowest since February 28.
The failure of peace negotiations over the previous weekend and the US blockade of Iranian ports contributed to the weekly high registered on Monday, April 13. However, during the rest of the week, settlement prices remained below €45/MWh, influenced by expectations of new talks between the United States and Iran and a possible extension of the ceasefire. On Thursday, a ceasefire also began between Israel and Lebanon. In addition, higher temperatures, lower LNG imports in Asia and increased renewable energy production contributed to falling prices during the third week of April.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2026, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €72.61/t, on Monday, April 13. For the rest of the week, settlement prices stayed above €74/t. On Friday, April 17, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €77.48/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 6.4% higher than the last session of the previous week and the highest since February 12.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets and storage in Europe
On Thursday, April 16, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting held the 65th edition of its monthly webinar series. On this occasion, the guest speaker was Raúl García Posada, Director of ASEALEN, the Spanish Energy Storage Association, who joined the series for the fifth time. The webinar analyzed the evolution and prospects of European energy markets, as well as the regulation, current situation and prospects for energy storage.
The recording of the panel discussion, which takes place in the second part of the webinar in Spanish, is available at this link.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.