AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, November 13, 2023. In the second week of November, electricity market prices recovered from the previous week. For the third consecutive week, MIBEL was the market with the lowest weekly average. The increase in demand and the fall in wind energy production after the high levels at the end of October and the beginning of November favored the rise in prices. Even so, on November 6, the German market reached the highest wind energy production since mid‑March.
Solar photovoltaic, solar thermoelectric and wind energy production
In the week of November 6, variations in solar energy production in the main European electricity markets did not show a homogeneous trend compared to the previous week. Solar energy production increased by 37% in Spain, 19% in France and 12% in Portugal. The Italian and German markets registered the opposite behavior, solar energy production fell by 7.7% and 1.7%, respectively. For the week of November 13, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy production forecasts, solar energy production will increase in Spain and Italy.
During the week of November 6, wind energy production in the main European electricity markets decreased week‑on‑week after reaching very high levels at the end of October and the beginning of November. The Italian market registered the largest drop, 35%, followed by the Portuguese market where the decline was 34%. The German market registered the smallest decline, 9.9%. However, despite the decline in weekly production, wind energy generated 897 GWh in the German market on November 6, the highest value since mid‑March.
For the week of November 13, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy production forecasts indicate that wind energy production will continue to decline in most of the analyzed markets with the exception of Italy.Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
In the week of November 6, electricity demand increased in the main European electricity markets compared to the previous week. In part, this rise was due to demand recovering after the previous week’s falls, related to the celebration of All Saints’ Day in most of Europe, except Great Britain. Increases ranged from 3.6% in the Dutch market to 12% in the French market.
During the same period, average temperatures decreased in all analyzed markets compared to the previous week. The decreases ranged from 3.1 °C in Italy to 1.0 °C in Portugal.
According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts, in the week of November 13, electricity demand will increase in most of the analyzed markets. Only the French, German and Spanish markets will register lower demand.Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.
European electricity markets
In the week of November 6, prices in the main European electricity markets showed an upward trend compared to the previous week. The MIBEL market of Spain and Portugal reached the highest price rises, 148% and 161%, respectively. In contrast, the N2EX market of the United Kingdom registered the smallest increase, 8.1%. Elsewhere, prices rose between 27% in the IPEX market of Italy and 69% in the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries.
In the second week of November, weekly averages were below €100/MWh in most of the European electricity markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting. The exceptions were the British and Italian markets, where the averages were €107.11/MWh and €121.54/MWh, respectively. For the third consecutive week, the Portuguese and Spanish markets registered the lowest average prices, €56.90/MWh and €57.11/MWh, respectively. In the rest of the analyzed markets, prices ranged from €72.56/MWh in the Nordic market to €95.54/MWh in the EPEX SPOT market of the Netherlands.
Despite the rise in the weekly average in the second week of November, the MIBEL market registered thirty‑six hours with prices below €10/MWh on November 6, 11 and 12. On the other hand, on Tuesday, November 7, from 18:00 to 19:00, the Nordic market reached the highest price since the beginning of April, €149.86/MWh.
During the week of November 6, the increase in demand and the fall in wind energy production in Europe caused electricity market prices to rise.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that in the third week of November prices in most European electricity markets might continue to rise. Declining wind energy production will contribute to this behavior.Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.
Brent, fuels and CO2
On Monday, November 6, Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market registered their weekly maximum settlement price, $85.18/bbl. This price was already 2.6% lower than the previous Monday. Prices declined on Tuesday and Wednesday to reach the weekly minimum settlement price, $79.54/bbl, on Wednesday, November 8. This price was 6.0% lower than the previous Wednesday and the lowest since July. In the last sessions of the week, prices increased again. The settlement price on Friday, November 10 was $81.43/bbl. This was 4.1% lower than the previous Friday.
Concerns about demand evolution in the United States and China exerted their downward influence on Brent oil futures prices in the second week of November. In addition, fears of supply problems related to instability in the Middle East diminished, reducing their upward influence on prices. But, Iraq’s support for OPEC+ production cuts pushed prices higher at the end of the second week of November.
According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, settlement prices of TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month were below €50/MWh in the second week of November. On Monday, November 6, they registered the weekly minimum settlement price, €44.83/MWh. This price was 11% lower than the previous Monday. On the other hand, on Thursday, November 9, they reached the weekly maximum settlement price, €48.13 /MWh. This price was still 0.9% lower than the previous Thursday.
During the second week of November, high levels of European reserves and abundant supplies of liquefied natural gas kept prices below €50/MWh. In addition, Israel ordered the reopening of the Tamar field and supplies to Egypt from this country increased. On the other hand, Bulgaria’s new tax on Russian gas might exert its influence on price evolution in the coming days.
As for the settlement prices of CO2 emission rights futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2023, at the beginning of the second week of November they continued the declines that began at the end of the previous week. As a result, the settlement price on Tuesday, November 7, €75.25/t, was the weekly minimum. This price was 4.8% lower than the one on the same day of the previous week. It was also the lowest since the settlement prices of some November 2022 sessions for the reference contract of December 2022. But, in the last three sessions of the week, prices increased. On Friday, November 10, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €78.70/t. This price was 1.4% higher than the one on the same day of the previous week.Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe and the energy storage
This Thursday, November 16, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting and AleaGreen will hold the next webinar in their monthly webinar series. The webinar will address the prospects for European energy markets for the winter 2023‑2024 and the vision of the future for batteries and energy storage. Luis Marquina de Soto, President of AEPIBAL, the Business Association of Batteries and Energy Storage, will be the guest speaker on this occasion.
On the other hand, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, in the process of expanding into new markets, is selecting professional partners in the energy sector. Energy consultants, renewable energy sponsors and energy market experts can apply to the company’s Partnership Program.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.