AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, January 26, 2026. In the fourth week of January, prices in most major European electricity markets increased compared to the previous week, with daily values above €100/MWh in most sessions. Higher gas prices, whose futures rose above €40/MWh, levels not seen since June 2025, together with lower wind energy production and higher demand in some markets, drove this increase. By contrast, higher wind energy production in the Iberian Peninsula put downward pressure on prices and allowed the MIBEL market to register its lowest daily price since May 2025.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the fourth week of January, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in the German and French markets compared to the previous week. The German market registered the largest increase, 73%, following a week of growth, while the French market registered a 12% rise. By contrast, markets in the Iberian Peninsula and the Italian market registered declines in production from this technology. Spain and Portugal registered drops of 3.2% and 4.5%, respectively, while Italy registered a 16% decrease.
For the week of January 26, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts, production will increase in the Italian market compared to the previous week. In contrast, solar energy generation will decline in the Spanish and German markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.In the week of January 19, wind energy production increased in most major European markets compared to the previous week. The Spanish market registered the largest increase, 120%, after a week of declines. The Portuguese market followed with a 75% rise in wind energy production. The Italian and French markets registered increases of 65% and 5.9%, respectively. By contrast, the German market registered a 9.1% drop and continued its downward trend for the third consecutive week.
For the last week of January, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts, production from this technology will increase in the Spanish, German and Italian markets. However, production will decrease in the French and Portuguese markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.Electricity demand
In the week of January 19, electricity demand increased in most major European markets compared to the previous week. The Portuguese market registered the largest increase, 4.8%, followed by a 4.3% rise in the German market. The Spanish market registered the smallest increase, 0.1%, while demand rose by 3.2% in France and by 1.2% in Italy. The German and Italian markets registered a fourth consecutive week of growth, while markets in the Iberian Peninsula accumulated increases for the third consecutive week.
By contrast, the British and Belgian markets registered declines in demand compared to the previous week. The Belgian market registered the smallest drop, 0.2%, while the British market registered the largest decline, 4.2%.
During the week, the Portuguese market accumulated several demand records as a result of low temperatures, reaching its highest value on January 23, with a historical maximum consumption of 198 GWh.
In the fourth week of January, average temperatures fell in most analyzed markets compared to the previous week. Germany registered the largest drop, 4.8 °C. Spain and Italy showed weekly average temperatures similar to those of the previous week, while temperatures in Great Britain were 1.4 °C less cold than the week before.
For the week of January 26, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts, demand will increase in the markets of Great Britain, France, Portugal, Belgium and Italy. By contrast, demand will decrease in the German and Spanish markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
In the week of January 19, prices in most major European electricity markets increased compared to the previous week, especially during the first days of the week. The Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries registered the largest percentage increase, 28%, while the N2EX market of the United Kingdom registered the smallest rise, 2.2%. In the EPEX SPOT markets of Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany, increases ranged from 6.2% in the Belgian market to 12% in the German market. The exceptions were the EPEX SPOT market of France and the MIBEL market of Spain and Portugal, which registered declines of 0.5%, 42% and 43%, respectively.
During this period, weekly averages exceeded €100/MWh in most European electricity markets. The Iberian market was the exception, with averages of €63.44/MWh in Portugal and €63.58/MWh in Spain. The Italian market registered the highest weekly average, €147.72/MWh. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices ranged from €102.75/MWh in the French market to €121.80/MWh in the German market.
Regarding daily evolution, on Sunday, January 25, the Iberian market registered the lowest average of the week among the analyzed markets, €11.25/MWh. This value also marked the lowest daily price in this market since May 25, 2025. Meanwhile, except for the French, Spanish and Portuguese markets, the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting registered daily prices above €100/MWh in almost all sessions of the fourth week of January. The Italian market registered the highest daily average of the week among the analyzed markets, €159.29/MWh, on Thursday, January 22.
In the week of January 19, the sharp increase in wind energy production in Spain and Portugal contributed to lower prices in the Iberian market. However, higher gas prices, together with lower wind energy production and higher demand in some cases, contributed to price increases in most analyzed markets.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that, in the last week of January, prices will decline in the German, Iberian and Italian markets, influenced by higher wind energy production as well as lower demand in these markets. By contrast, prices will increase in the markets of France, Belgium and the Netherlands.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Settlement prices of Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market during the week of January 19 remained at levels similar to those of the previous week. The week began with a settlement price of $63.94/bbl, which also marked the weekly minimum and stood 0.3% below the previous Friday’s settlement price. Over the next two days, prices rose to $65.24/bbl. On Thursday, the settlement price fell to $64.06/bbl, 1.8% lower than the previous day. On Friday, January 23, the market reached its weekly high, as Brent settled at $65.88/bbl, an increase of 2.7% compared to the previous Friday’s settlement price.
During the week, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the situation in Iran, continued to influence Brent oil futures prices and maintained a moderate risk premium in the market. Although supply disruptions did not occur, ongoing sanctions and military movements in the region sustained trader caution. However, signals of de‑escalation in the rhetoric of the US president, together with the absence of new episodes of significant tension, limited price rebounds. Inventory data and expectations regarding global supply also helped keep prices at levels similar to those of the previous week, without a clearly defined trend.
As for settlement prices of TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, during the penultimate week of January they stood above the levels of the previous week. On Monday, January 19, the settlement price reached €35.40/MWh, 4.0% lower than the previous Friday’s settlement price, marking the weekly minimum. Throughout the week, prices followed an upward trend with moderate fluctuations. The weekly high came on Friday, January 23, when the settlement price reached €40.04/MWh, an increase of 8.6% compared to the previous Friday’s settlement price. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this value marks the highest level since June 24, 2025.
Forecasts of lower temperatures in Europe toward the end of January and relatively low gas storage levels, around 45%, continued to push TTF gas futures prices higher during this week. In addition, concerns about supply availability, together with geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of higher global demand, reinforced the upward momentum. Overall, these factors kept prices above the levels of the previous week and supported a general upward trend throughout the week.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2026, they registered a settlement price of €88.16/t on Monday, January 19, 4.2% below the previous Friday’s settlement price. The market reached its weekly low on Tuesday, January 20, when the settlement price fell to €84.94/t, down 3.7% from the previous day. Prices later recovered, and the weekly high came on Thursday, January 22, with a settlement price of €88.48/t, although this value remained 3.9% below the previous Friday’s settlement price. On Friday, January 23, the settlement price edged down by 0.1% to €88.41/t.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe and storage
On Thursday, February 12, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will hold webinar number 63 in its monthly webinar series. For the fifth time, the webinar will feature Tomás García, Senior Director, Energy & Infrastructure Advisory at JLL. In addition to analyzing the evolution and prospects of European energy markets, the webinar will address market signals for battery storage, with a deep dive into insights from recent BESS project transactions and the main drivers for valuing stand‑alone battery projects.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.