AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, March 16, 2026. During the second week of March, prices in the main European electricity markets showed uneven performance, with increases in southern Europe and declines elsewhere. Most markets registered averages above €80/MWh, in a week marked by the highest settlement price of TTF gas futures since February 2025, the highest Brent price since August 2022 and the lowest CO₂ price since May, as well as by higher demand and higher renewable energy production, with increases in wind energy production in some markets and records for solar photovoltaic energy production for a March day in the Iberian Peninsula.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the week of March 9, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in the Iberian and Italian markets compared to the previous week. The Spanish market registered the largest increase, 38%, followed by gains of 21% in Italy and 18% in Portugal. Meanwhile, the French and German markets reversed their trends after three and five consecutive weeks of increases, respectively. Germany registered the largest drop, 30%, while France registered a smaller decline, 0.8%.
During the week, the Iberian markets set historical records for solar photovoltaic energy production on a March day. Portugal reached its record on March 11, with 22 GWh. Spain set its record on March 13, with 180 GWh.
For the week of March 16, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts indicate higher production in the German and Italian markets. In contrast, production in the Spanish market will decline.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.During the second week of March, wind energy production increased in the German and French markets compared to the previous week, following two weeks of declines in both markets. Germany registered the largest increase, 95%, while France reached a 91% increase. In contrast, the Iberian and Italian markets reversed the upward trend seen the previous week. Spain registered the largest drop, 28%, while Italy registered the smallest decline, 3.7%. Wind energy production in Portugal fell by 9.1%.
On March 13, France and Germany reached their highest wind energy production for a March day in the last two years, 297 GWh and 778 GWh, respectively.
For the third week of March, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts point to increases in Germany and Italy. In contrast, wind energy production will decline in the Iberian and French markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.Electricity demand
During the week of March 9, electricity demand increased in most major European markets compared to the previous week. France reversed its downward trend after three consecutive weekly declines and registered the largest increase, 4.7%. Germany and Belgium increased demand by 1.6% and 1.8%, respectively, after two weeks of decreases. Portugal registered the smallest increase, 0.9%, marking its second consecutive weekly rise. Exceptions included Italy, Spain and Great Britain, where demand declined. Italy registered the smallest decrease, 1.6%, continuing a six‑week downward trend. Spain and Great Britain registered declines of 3.7% and 5.3%, respectively.
During the week, average temperatures turned colder than the previous week in most analyzed markets. Belgium and France registered the largest temperature drops, 2.4 °C and 1.9 °C, respectively. Spain registered the smallest decrease, 0.4 °C, while Great Britain registered a 0.5 °C drop. On the other hand, Italy kept similar average temperatures to the previous week, while Germany registered temperatures 0.2 °C less cold.
For the third week of March, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts indicate declining demand in Great Britain, Spain, Italy and Portugal. France, Germany and Belgium will register increases.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
During the second week of March, prices in the main European electricity markets increased and reached their highest daily levels on Tuesday, March 10, in most cases. Prices then declined until Friday and recovered over the weekend in some markets. The weekly average price in the Italian market rose by 4.4%. The weekly price also increased by 22% in Portugal, while the Spanish and French averages rose by 23% in both cases. In contrast, the remaining markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting registered price declines ranging from 4.3% in the Belgian market to 21% in the Nordic market.
In the week of March 9, weekly averages exceeded €80/MWh in most European electricity markets. Exceptions included the Nordic, Portuguese and Spanish markets, with averages of €66.15/MWh, €67.88/MWh and €70.03/MWh, respectively. Italy registered the highest weekly average, €147.54/MWh. In the remaining markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices ranged between €80.77/MWh in the French market and €105.07/MWh in the British market.
Regarding daily prices, on Sunday, March 15, Spain and Portugal registered the lowest daily average of the week among the analyzed markets, €6.44/MWh. These markets also registered daily prices below €20/MWh on Saturday, March 14, while the Nordic market did so on Friday, March 13. That day, the price was €15.51/MWh in the Nordic market, its lowest price since December 28, 2025.
Meanwhile, daily prices in Italy stayed above €140/MWh during the second week of March except on Sunday. The other markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting also registered prices above €100/MWh in some sessions that week. On Tuesday, March 10, Italy reached the highest daily average of the week among the analyzed markets, €168.54/MWh. This marked Italy’s highest average since February 14, 2025. On March 10, Portugal and Spain reached their highest prices since February 18, 2025, €131.79/MWh and €136.86/MWh, respectively. In the British market, the March 9 daily price reached €150.24/MWh, the highest since February 15, 2025, in this market. Belgium registered its highest price since July 2, 2025, €146.22/MWh, on March 10.
During the week of March 9, high gas prices and lower wind energy production in the Iberian Peninsula and Italy pushed prices upward in the Spanish, Italian and Portuguese markets. Higher demand also supported price increases in Portugal and France. However, higher wind energy production in other markets pushed prices downward.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that prices will remain high and trend upward while instability in the Middle East continues to pressure gas prices. In this context, lower wind energy production in the Iberian Peninsula and lower solar energy production in Spain will influence the Spanish and Portuguese market prices during the third week of March. However, higher renewable energy production in most major European electricity markets could exert downward pressure on prices.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, RTE, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Settlement prices of Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market exceeded $90/bbl during the second week of March except on Tuesday, March 10. That day, these futures reached their weekly minimum settlement price, $87.80/bbl. Prices then followed an upward trend. As a result, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $103.14/bbl, on Friday, March 13. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price stood 11% above the previous Friday and marked the highest level since August 30, 2022.
During the second week of March, instability in the Middle East continued to push Brent oil futures prices upward due to supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Prices fell on Tuesday following statements from the US president about a possible near‑term end to the conflict. The possibility of G7 countries releasing oil from strategic reserves also contributed to the decline. However, prices increased again during the rest of the week as the conflict evolved, despite the International Energy Agency approving the largest release of oil from emergency reserves in its history.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €56.45/MWh, on Monday, March 9. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this marked the highest price since February 12, 2025. After a 16% drop from Monday’s level, these futures reached their weekly minimum settlement price, €47.39/MWh, on Tuesday, March 10. Prices stabilized at around €50/MWh during the last three sessions of the week. The settlement price reached €50.12/MWh on Friday, March 13, 6.1% below the previous Friday.
Supply concerns linked to Middle East instability continued to push TTF gas futures prices upward during the second week of March. Prices fell on Tuesday, March 10, after statements from the US president suggesting that the conflict with Iran could end soon. However, instability persisted and prices rose above €50/MWh again in the last sessions of the week. Low European storage levels, currently below 29%, further increased supply concerns.
Regarding settlement prices of CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2026, they reached their weekly maximum, €72.93/t on Tuesday, March 10. Prices then declined until Thursday, March 12, when these futures reached their weekly minimum settlement price, €68.75/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this marked the lowest price since May 2, 2025. The settlement price rose slightly to €69.18/t on Friday, March 13, though it still stood 2.0% below the previous Friday.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe, storage and project financing
On Thursday, March 12, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting held the 64th edition of its monthly webinar series, with EY participating for the sixth consecutive year. The webinar analyzed the evolution of European energy markets and the prospects for spring 2026, the main milestones for 2026 in the energy sector, regulation and prospects for energy storage and capacity markets, financing of renewable energy and storage projects, the importance of PPA and self‑consumption, as well as the main considerations to take into account in portfolio valuation.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.