AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, August 18, 2025. In the week of August 11, Germany and France set records for solar photovoltaic energy production. Wind energy generation increased in Portugal and France, while in Germany, Italy and Spain it decreased. Electricity demand grew in most European markets, as a result of higher temperatures, which drove up prices in European electricity markets. TTF gas futures reached their lowest levels since July 2024.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
During the week of August 11, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in the French and German electricity markets for the third consecutive week compared to the previous week. The French market registered the largest rise, 13%, while in Germany it grew by 8.0%. In contrast, in the Southern European markets, the upward trend of the previous week reversed. The Italian market showed the largest decline, 9.3%, followed by decreases of 5.8% and 4.7% in the Portuguese and Spanish markets, respectively.
France and Germany also reached new all‑time highs for daily solar photovoltaic energy production for the month of August, surpassing the records of the previous week. On Monday, August 11, the German and French markets generated 437 GWh and 155 GWh, respectively.
According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts for the week of August 18, solar photovoltaic energy generation will increase in the Spanish market. In contrast, it will decrease in the Italian and German markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.In the second week of August, wind energy production increased in the Portuguese and French markets compared to the previous week. The Portuguese market registered a 53% rise, while the French market was up by 48%, reversing the declines of the previous two and three weeks, respectively. In contrast, the German, Italian and Spanish markets continued to fall for the second consecutive week. The German market registered the largest drop, 42%, while the Spanish and Italian markets registered decreases of 25% and 30%, respectively.
For the week of August 18, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts, generation with this technology will increase in the German, Spanish, Portuguese and Italian markets. In contrast, it will decline in the French market.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.Electricity demand
In the week of August 11, electricity demand rose in most major European markets compared to the previous week. After three weeks of declines, the British market registered the largest increase, 12%. The Belgian market continued the upward trend of the previous two weeks with a 6.2% rise. The German and French markets reversed the declines of the last two and three weeks, respectively, with increases of 3.0% and 4.3%. Demand in the Spanish market grew for the second consecutive week, this time by 1.5%. The Portuguese and Italian markets were the exception. The Portuguese market registered its second consecutive decline, with a 3.5% drop. Meanwhile, the Italian market fell by 1.4%, extending the downward trend of the last three weeks.
The rise in average temperatures during the week in all analyzed markets boosted demand in most of them. Increases in average temperatures ranged from 2.0 °C in Spain to 3.3 °C in France.
Weekly demand increases remained despite the August 15 national holiday, the Assumption of the Virgin, celebrated in Spain, Belgium, France, Italy and Portugal, due to the heat wave that affected several of these countries during the week.
For the week of August 18, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts, demand will increase in the German, Spanish and Italian markets, while it will decline in the French, Portuguese, British and Belgian markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
In the second week of August, average prices in the main European electricity markets rose compared to the previous week. The IPEX market of Italy and the MIBEL market of Portugal and Spain registered the smallest increases, 4.9%, 20% and 22%, respectively. In contrast, the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries registered the largest percentage price increase, 293%. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices rose between 37% in the EPEX SPOT market of Germany and 62% in the EPEX SPOT market of France.
In the week of August 11, weekly averages exceeded €75/MWh in most European electricity markets. The exceptions were the Nordic and French markets, with averages of €28.00/MWh and €66.34/MWh, respectively. In contrast, the Italian market reached the highest weekly average, €113.27/MWh. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices ranged from €77.06/MWh in the Belgian market to €96.18/MWh in the N2EX market of the United Kingdom.
Regarding daily prices, on Saturday, August 16, the Nordic market reached the lowest average of the week among the analyzed markets, €4.55/MWh. In contrast, on August 13, this market registered its highest price since May 10, €63.56/MWh. Meanwhile, daily prices in the Italian market remained above €100/MWh during the second week of August. Prices in the British, Spanish and Portuguese markets also exceeded €100/MWh on August 13, while the German, British and Dutch markets registered daily prices above €100/MWh on August 14. On August 13, the Italian market reached the highest daily average of the week, €118.47/MWh.
As for hourly prices, on August 13 and 14, the German, Belgian and Dutch markets registered hourly prices above €200/MWh. On Thursday, August 14, from 20:00 to 21:00, the German market reached the highest hourly price of the week, €283.89/MWh. Meanwhile, on August 13, from 20:00 to 21:00, the Nordic market reached a price of €96.93/MWh. This was its highest price since May 10.
In the week of August 11, the increase in demand and the decrease in wind energy production in most markets led to the rise in prices in European electricity markets. In addition, solar energy production fell in the Spanish, Italian and Portuguese markets, while nuclear energy production declined in the French market. However, the drop in demand in the Italian and Portuguese markets contributed to these markets registering the smallest percentage price increases.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that, in the third week of August, prices will fall in most European electricity markets, influenced by the increase in wind energy production. In addition, demand will decrease in some markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Settlement prices of Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market remained below $67/bbl during the second week of August. On August 13, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $65.63/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was the lowest price since June 6. In contrast, after a 1.8% increase compared to the previous day, on August 14 these futures registered their weekly maximum settlement price, $66.84/bbl. On Friday, August 15, the settlement price was $65.85/bbl. This price was 1.1% lower than the previous Friday.
Concerns about evolution of demand, as well as rising production, exerted downward pressure on Brent oil futures prices in the second week of August. However, threats from the US president in the event of failed peace negotiations for Ukraine contributed to the price increase on Thursday, August 14.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €33.00/MWh, on Monday, August 11. Subsequently, prices began a downward trend. As a result, on Friday, August 15, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €31.03/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 4.4% lower than the previous Friday and the lowest since July 11, 2024.
Despite rising temperatures, abundant supply contributed to the decline in TTF gas futures prices in the second week of August. In addition, expectations of a peace agreement for Ukraine, which would increase global gas availability by lifting sanctions on Russian gas, also exerted downward pressure on these futures prices.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2025, they registered their weekly maximum settlement price, €72.34/t, on Monday, August 11. Settlement prices fell in most sessions of the second week of August. On Friday, August 15, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €70.68/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 3.5% lower than the previous Friday.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe
On September 18, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will hold the 58th webinar in its monthly webinar series. In addition to the evolution and prospects of European energy markets, the webinar will analyze the prospects for battery energy storage, as well as the current situation and prospects for self‑consumption. The event will also include a presentation of AleaSoft services for retailers.
The analysis table of the webinar in Spanish will feature Xavier Cugat, BESS Technical Director at Seraphim, Francisco Valverde, independent professional for the renewable energy development, and Alejandro Diego Rosell, Professor at EOI and Consultant at Nuvix Consulting.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
