AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, November 10, 2025. In the first week of November, the increase in electricity demand, the decrease in wind energy production in some markets and the rise in CO₂ prices, whose futures reached their highest settlement price since mid‑February, above €82/t, led to higher prices in most major European electricity markets. However, the increase in wind energy production in the Iberian Peninsula contributed to lower prices in the MIBEL market. In addition, photovoltaic energy production reached record levels for a November day in the main European markets.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the week of November 3, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in the main European markets compared to the previous week. The French market registered the largest increase, 16%, while the Spanish market showed the smallest, 4.9%. The German, Italian and Portuguese markets presented increases of 10%, 11% and 13%, respectively. Germany registered its second consecutive week of growth in generation with this technology, while the rest of the markets changed trend after several consecutive weeks of decreases.
During the week, the main European markets set historical records of solar photovoltaic energy production for a November day. Spain and Portugal reached their November photovoltaic energy generation records on November 3, with 149 GWh and 17 GWh, respectively. On Tuesday, November 4, the French market reached its record, with 74 GWh. The German and Italian markets broke their November records on November 5, with 172 GWh in Germany and 83 GWh in Italy.
For the second week of November, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts, photovoltaic energy production will increase in the Spanish market, but it will decrease in the Italian and German markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.During the first week of November, wind energy production increased in the markets of the Iberian Peninsula compared to the previous week, reversing the downward trend of the previous seven days. The Spanish market registered the largest increase, 42%, while in the Portuguese market it rose by 35%. On the other hand, the Italian, French and German markets continued to register decreases for the second consecutive week, with declines of 14%, 37% and 55%, respectively.
In the week of November 10, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts, wind energy generation will increase in the French, German and Spanish markets, while it will decrease in the Italian and Portuguese markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.Electricity demand
In the first week of November, electricity demand increased in the main European markets compared to the previous week. The Belgian market registered the largest increase, 3.7%, while the Portuguese market registered the smallest rise, 1.4%. In the Italian, French, Spanish, British and German markets, demand increases ranged between 1.9% in Italy and 2.9% in Germany. The French market registered increases for the fifth consecutive week. The increases in demand in most markets were favored by lower temperatures and by the recovery of activity after the All Saints’ Day holiday, celebrated on November 1 in Belgium, Spain, Portugal, Italy and France.
During the week, average temperatures fell in most analyzed markets compared to the previous week. Italy registered the largest drop, 2.8 °C, while France registered the smallest, 1.1 °C. Belgium and Great Britain were the exceptions, with increases in average temperatures of 1.4 °C and 2.1 °C, respectively.
For the week of November 10, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts, demand will decrease in the markets of France, Belgium, Portugal and Germany. On the other hand, it will increase in Great Britain, Italy and Spain.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
In the first week of November, average prices in most major European electricity markets rose compared to the previous week. However, the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries and the MIBEL market of Portugal and Spain registered decreases of 13%, 29% and 30%, respectively. In the IPEX market of Italy, there was also a slight decline, 0.5%. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices rose between 6.0% in the EPEX SPOT market of France and 29% in the EPEX SPOT market of Germany.
In the week of November 3, weekly averages were above €75/MWh in most European electricity markets. The exceptions were the Nordic, French, Spanish and Portuguese markets, whose averages were €43.91/MWh, €47.71/MWh, €52.50/MWh and €53.21/MWh, respectively. The Italian market reached the highest weekly average, €110.99/MWh. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices ranged between €79.81/MWh in the Belgian market and €95.39/MWh in the German market.
Regarding daily prices, the Nordic market reached the lowest average of the week among the analyzed markets, €9.81/MWh, on November 4. However, during the first week of November, daily prices remained above €100/MWh in the Italian market. The Dutch market also registered prices above €100/MWh on November 6 and 7, while the German market did so on November 6, 7 and 8. On Friday, November 7, the Italian market reached the highest daily average of the week, €116.29/MWh.
In the week of November 3, the increase in demand, the rise in weekly CO₂ emission allowance prices and the decrease in wind energy production led to higher prices in most European electricity markets. However, the significant increase in wind energy production in the Iberian Peninsula, as well as the increase in solar energy production, contributed to lower prices in the MIBEL market.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that in the second week of November, prices might fall in markets such as Belgium and France, influenced by lower electricity demand. On the other hand, electricity demand will increase, contributing to higher prices, in markets such as the Dutch and the N2EX market of the United Kingdom.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $64.89/bbl, on Monday, November 3. This price was already 0.3% lower than that of the last session of the previous week. The downward trend continued until Thursday, November 6. That day, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $63.38/bbl. On Friday, November 7, the settlement price was slightly higher, $63.63/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 2.2% lower than the previous Friday.
In the first week of November, the agreements reached by OPEC+ on Sunday, November 2, exerted downward pressure on Brent oil futures prices. OPEC+ will increase its production in December, while it agreed to halt production increases during the first quarter of 2026. On the other hand, US oil inventories increased, also contributing to the decline in prices.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €32.55/MWh, on Tuesday, November 4. Subsequently, prices fell. As a result, on Friday, November 7, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €31.20/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was still 0.3% higher than the previous Friday.
The abundant supply of liquefied natural gas contributed to TTF gas futures prices remaining below €32/MWh during almost the entire first week of November.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2025, settlement prices exceeded €80/t during almost the entire first week of November, except on Friday. On Tuesday, November 4, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €82.31/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was the highest since February 12. On the other hand, on Friday, November 7, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €79.49/t. This price was still 1.2% higher than the previous Friday.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe and energy storage
On Thursday, November 13, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will hold its next webinar. This will be the 60th edition of its monthly webinar series. In addition to the evolution and prospects of European energy markets for the winter 2025‑2026, the webinar will address the prospects for batteries, hybridization and energy storage, as well as AleaSoft services for battery and hybridization projects. On this occasion, the guest speaker will be Luis Marquina de Soto, president of AEPIBAL, the Business Association of Batteries and Energy Storage.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
