AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, February 3, 2026. In January, prices rose in most major European electricity markets and stood above €100/MWh. In several markets, the monthly price was the highest since at least March 2025. By contrast, prices in the Iberian market fell and were around €71/MWh. Spain and Italy registered all‑time monthly wind energy production records, while France and Portugal reached their highest wind energy production for a January month. Germany, Italy and France achieved their highest photovoltaic energy production for a January month. Electricity demand increased. TTF gas futures reached their highest average since July, Brent futures since October and CO₂ futures at least since January 2024.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In January 2026, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in most major European markets compared with the same month of the previous year. Italy registered the largest increase, 14%, followed by France with an 11% rise and Germany with a 2.8% increase. By contrast, photovoltaic energy production fell by 14% in the Portuguese market, while production using this technology in the Spanish market was similar to that registered in January 2025.
Compared with December 2025, solar photovoltaic energy production also increased in most major European electricity markets. The French market registered the largest rise, 6.1%, followed by increases of 4.9% in Germany and 2.6% in Spain. Conversely, the Portuguese and Italian markets reduced their photovoltaic energy production compared with December. The Portuguese market registered the largest decline, 11%, while the Italian market showed a more moderate fall, 1.0%.
Several of the main European markets reached all‑time records for solar photovoltaic energy production for a January month. Germany achieved the highest production, with 1673 GWh, followed by Italy with 1279 GWh and France with 1160 GWh.
According to data from Red Eléctrica, between January 2024 and January 2025 the Spanish market added 9301 MW of solar photovoltaic energy capacity, including self‑consumption. Over the same period, the Portuguese market added 936 MW to the system, according to data from REN.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.In January 2026, wind energy production increased year‑on‑year in the main European electricity markets. Italy registered the largest increase, 17%, followed by Portugal and Spain with rises of 7.4% and 6.6%, respectively. France showed the smallest increase, 3.1%, while Germany registered growth of 5.6%.
Compared with the previous month, wind energy production also increased in the main European markets. Italy once again registered the largest increase, 105%, followed by Spain with 50% and Portugal with 43%. France again showed the smallest rise, 3.1%, while Germany registered an increase of 6.1%.
In January 2026, the Spanish and Italian markets reached all‑time wind energy production records, with 7988 GWh and 2989 GWh, respectively. Meanwhile, the French and Portuguese markets reached their highest wind energy production for a January month, with 5905 GWh and 1935 GWh, respectively.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Electricity demand
In January 2026, electricity demand increased in most major European markets compared with the same month of the previous year. The Portuguese market registered the largest increase, 8.4%, while the French market showed the smallest rise, 0.7%. The Spanish, Italian, German and Belgian markets registered increases ranging from 3.6% in Spain to 4.7% in Belgium. By contrast, the British market registered a year‑on‑year decline in demand of 1.3%.
Compared with December 2025, demand increased across all the main European markets analysed. France registered the largest increase, 11%, while Spain showed the smallest, 4.9%. The markets of Italy, Belgium, Portugal, Great Britain and Germany registered increases ranging from 8.2% in Italy to 9.1% in Germany.
Average temperatures were lower than those of the same month in 2025 in France, Portugal, Italy, Spain and Germany, with decreases ranging from 0.4 °C in France to 2.6 °C in Germany. By contrast, Great Britain and Belgium registered average temperatures that were 0.4 °C and 0.5 °C less cold, respectively.
Compared with December 2025, average temperatures in January were lower in all analysed markets. Germany registered the largest drop, 3.5 °C, followed by declines of 2.4 °C in Belgium and 2.2 °C in France. In the remaining markets, average temperatures fell by between 0.8 °C in Portugal and 1.8 °C in Great Britain and Italy.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.
European electricity markets
In January 2026, the monthly average price in most major European electricity markets was above €100/MWh. The exception was the Iberian MIBEL market, where averages stood at €71.19/MWh for Portugal and €71.67/MWh for Spain. The IPEX market of Italy registered the highest monthly price, €132.66/MWh. In the remaining European electricity markets analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, averages ranged from €100.65/MWh in the EPEX SPOT market of France to €109.93/MWh in the EPEX SPOT market of Germany.
Compared with December, average prices rose in most European electricity markets analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting. The Spanish and Portuguese markets were the exceptions, with declines of 8.0% and 8.6%, respectively. The Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries registered the largest percentage price increase, 95%. By contrast, the Italian and German markets registered the smallest rises, 15% and 18%, respectively. In the remaining markets, prices increased by between 22% in the Dutch market and 46% in the French market.
However, when comparing January average prices with those of the same month in 2025, prices fell in most markets. The Nordic market was the exception, with a rise of 136%. The N2EX market of the United Kingdom and the Spanish and Portuguese markets registered the largest percentage price declines, 23% in the first case and 26% in the latter two. In the remaining markets, price decreases ranged from 1.6% in the French market to 8.2% in the Dutch market.
In January, the German, French, Italian, British, Belgian and Dutch markets registered their highest prices since March 2025. Meanwhile, the Nordic market reached its highest average since January 2023.
The increase in gas prices and CO₂ emission allowance prices, as well as higher demand compared with the previous month, supported the rise in European electricity market prices in January 2026. However, the sharp increase in wind energy production and the rise in solar energy production on the Iberian Peninsula contributed to the fall in prices in the MIBEL market.
On the other hand, the fall in gas prices compared with January 2025 and the increase in wind energy production led to year‑on‑year price declines in European electricity markets in the first month of 2026. In addition, solar energy production increased in Germany, France and Italy, while demand fell in the British market.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.
Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market registered a monthly average price of $64.73/bbl in January 2026. According to data analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was the highest monthly average since October 2025. This value was 5.0% higher than that of December 2025 Front‑Month futures, $61.63/bbl. However, it was 17% lower than that of the Front‑Month futures traded in January 2025, $78.35/bbl.
Uncertainty surrounding Venezuela and fears about the effects of instability in the Middle East on oil supply exerted upward pressure on Brent oil futures prices in January. The announcement of new US sanctions on countries importing Russian oil also contributed to the increase in prices compared with the previous month. Nevertheless, concerns about global oversupply continued to exert downward pressure, with the monthly average remaining below that of the same month of the previous year.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, the average value registered during January 2026 was €34.14/MWh. According to data analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was the highest monthly average since July 2025. Compared with the average of Front‑Month futures traded in December 2025, €27.62/MWh, the January average rose by 24%. Compared with Front‑Month futures traded in January 2025, when the average price was €48.32/MWh, this represented a decline of 29%.
In January, low temperatures and concerns about declining European storage levels exerted upward pressure on TTF gas futures prices. Price developments during the month were also influenced by tensions in the Middle East. In addition, reduced liquefied natural gas supply from the United States due to adverse weather conditions in that country also contributed to the increase in prices compared with the previous month. Nevertheless, the monthly average was still lower than that of January 2025.
Regarding CO₂ emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2026, they reached an average price in January of €88.10/t. According to data analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was the highest monthly average at least since January 2024. This monthly price increased by 2.0% compared with the December 2025 average, €86.36/t. Compared with the January 2025 average, €80.52/t, the January 2026 average was 9.4% higher.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on energy storage
The AleaStorage division of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting specialises in producing forecasting reports for energy storage projects. AleaStorage services include revenue and profitability calculations, as well as optimal storage sizing in hybrid systems. AleaStorage has developed successful cases in long‑term revenue calculations for stand‑alone batteries and hybrid systems, mainly photovoltaic energy systems with batteries.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.