AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, June 10, 2025. In the first week of June, prices rose in most major European electricity markets, although hours with negative prices persisted. Renewable energy production set milestones: Spain reached an all‑time record for photovoltaic energy generation, and Portugal, France and Italy registered highs for a day in June. Germany stood out with its highest daily wind energy production for this month. Demand increased in most markets, and CO₂ and Brent futures rebounded to multi‑month highs.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
During the week of June 2, solar photovoltaic energy production decreased in the main European markets compared to the previous week. France registered the largest decline, 22%, while Spain showed the smallest drop, 0.3%. In Italy, Germany and Portugal, production fell by 2.4%, 8.9% and 9.2%, respectively. In the case of Germany, production with this technology decreased for the third consecutive week.
Despite the declines, the Spanish and Portuguese markets registered records for solar photovoltaic energy production. On Friday, June 6, Spain broke its all‑time record with a production of 221 GWh. On the same day, Portugal reached its highest daily value of production with this technology in a June month, with 27 GWh. On the other hand, on Monday, June 9, the French and Italian markets reached their historical maximums for solar photovoltaic energy production for a June month, 134 GWh and 152 GWh, respectively.
For the second week of June, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts, solar photovoltaic energy generation will increase in Germany, while it will decrease in Spain and Italy.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.In the first week of June, wind energy production increased in most major European markets compared to the previous week. Portugal registered the largest increase, 135%, while Germany had the smallest increase, 8.0%. In Spain and France, wind energy generation increased by 16% and 18%, respectively, and France maintained its upward trend for the third week. On the other hand, the Italian market registered declines in production with this technology for the second consecutive week, this time by 29%.
On Friday, June 6, the German market reached its highest wind energy production for a June month in history, with 706 GWh.
For the week of June 9, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts, production with this technology will increase in the Spanish market. On the other hand, for the German, Italian, Portuguese and French markets, the forecasts point to a decrease in wind energy production.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.Electricity demand
During the first week of June, electricity demand increased in most major European markets compared to the previous week. The German market registered the largest increase, 6.3%, while the Spanish market showed the smallest increase, 0.9%. The markets of Italy, France, Belgium and Great Britain registered increases ranging from 1.6% in Italy to 3.8% in Great Britain. Italy and Spain continued their upward trend for the second and third consecutive week, respectively. The increases in some markets were favored by the recovery in demand after the Spring Bank Holiday celebrated on May 26 in Great Britain and the Ascension Day celebrated on May 29 in Germany, Belgium and France. In contrast, the Portuguese market reduced its demand by 1.4%.
Average temperatures decreased in most analyzed markets compared to the previous week. Great Britain and Belgium registered the largest decreases, with 2.3 °C and 1.6 °C, respectively. Spain had the smallest decrease, with 1.0 °C, while France and Portugal registered drops of 1.1 °C and 1.4 °C, in that order. On the other hand, average temperatures in Germany were similar to those of the previous week, and in Italy they increased by 2.6 °C.
For the second week of June, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts, demand will decrease in the German, Belgian and French markets, favored by the national holiday of June 9, Whit Monday, celebrated in these countries. Demand will also fall in the Portuguese market, due to the national holiday of June 10, Portugal Day. On the other hand, demand will recover in the Italian, British and Spanish markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
In the first week of June, average prices in most major European electricity markets rose compared to the previous week. The exceptions were the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries and the EPEX SPOT market of France, with falls of 1.8% and 39%, respectively. In contrast, the MIBEL market of Portugal and Spain reached the largest percentage price increases, 59% and 71%, respectively. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices rose between 2.0% in the IPEX market of Italy and 20% in the N2EX market of the United Kingdom.
In the week of June 2, weekly averages were above €50/MWh in most European electricity markets. The exceptions were the Nordic and French markets, which averaged €15.66/MWh and €17.09/MWh, respectively. On the other hand, the Italian market reached the highest weekly average, €99.73/MWh. In the rest of the analyzed markets, prices ranged from €51.41/MWh in the Spanish market to €72.98/MWh in the British market.
Regarding daily prices, on Sunday, June 8, the French market reached the lowest average of the week among the analyzed markets, €2.49/MWh. On the other hand, the Italian market reached prices above €100/MWh on four occasions during the first week of June. On June 4, it registered the highest average of the week, €116.82/MWh.
As for hourly prices, despite the increase in weekly averages, most European electricity markets registered negative hourly prices in the first week of June. The exceptions were the Italian and Nordic markets. The German, Belgian and Dutch markets registered hourly prices below ‑€50/MWh on Sunday, June 8, from 14:00 to 16:00. The German market reached the lowest hourly price of the week from 15:00 to 16:00, which was ‑€53.06/MWh.
In the week of June 2, the increase in electricity demand in most markets, the decrease in solar energy production and the increase in CO2 emission allowance prices led to higher prices in most European electricity markets. In the case of the Italian market, moreover, wind energy production fell.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that, in the second week of June, prices will increase in most major European electricity markets, influenced by increased demand in some markets and declining wind and solar energy production in most of them. However, in the German market, the price will decrease due to the fall in demand and the increase in solar energy production.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $64.63/bbl on Monday, June 2. Settlement prices increased in most sessions of the first week of June. As a result, on Friday, June 6, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $66.47/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 4.0% higher than the previous Friday. On Monday, June 9, the settlement price was even higher, $67.04/bbl, the highest since April 23.
In the first week of June, despite planned OPEC+ production increases, the decline in production due to wildfires in Canada, the possibility of new sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports and fears about the effects on supply due to instability in the Middle East led to an increase in Brent oil futures prices. Expectations regarding negotiations between China and the United States to reach a trade agreement also had an upward influence on prices.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, on Monday, June 2, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €35.02/MWh. During the first three sessions of the week, settlement prices remained below €36/MWh. However, on Thursday, June 5, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €36.39/MWh. On Friday, June 6, there was a slight decrease compared to the previous day and the settlement price was €36.25/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was still 5.9% higher than the previous Friday.
In the first week of June, maintenance works continued in Norway, affecting gas supply from that country. The start of maintenance work at the Kollsnes plant contributed to settlement prices above €36/MWh in the last sessions of the week. Forecasts of lower wind energy production also exerted an upward influence on prices.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2025, on Monday, June 2, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €70.91/t. During the first week of June, prices maintained an upward trend. As a result, on Friday, June 6, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €73.50/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 4.4% higher than the previous Friday. On Monday, June 9, the settlement price was even higher, €74.23/t, which was the highest since February 19.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe, renewable energy, PPA and batteries
On Thursday, June 12, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will hold the 56th webinar of its monthly webinar series. The event will feature speakers from Engie Spain for the seventh time in the monthly webinar series. This webinar will analyze the evolution of European markets and prospects in the second half of 2025, the growth opportunities in the renewable sector, the current affairs of the PPA market in Spain and the prospects for energy storage in batteries. In addition, the webinar will address the IDAE’s call for aid, endowed with 700 million euros, aimed at energy storage projects with stand‑alone batteries, thermal storage or reversible pumped storage, as well as projects hybridized with renewable energy generation.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
