AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, July 7, 2025. In the first week of July, prices in the main European electricity markets increased compared to the previous week. On July 1, daily prices exceeded €110/MWh in most markets, and the Belgian and Dutch markets reached €517.57/MWh at 20:00. The rise in electricity demand driven by the heatwave that affected Europe contributed to the increase in prices. Additionally, Mainland Spain and Italy registered the highest daily demand so far in 2025 on July 2 and July 4, respectively.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the first week of July, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in the German, Portuguese and French markets compared to the previous week, with growth rates of 15%, 13% and 1.8%, respectively. In contrast, in Italy and Spain, weekly production from this technology fell by 8.7% and 7.3%, respectively.
During the week, the German, Italian, Portuguese and French markets reached their highest ever solar photovoltaic energy generation for a day in the month of July. Germany and Italy set their records on July 1, with 438 GWh and 145 GWh, respectively. In Portugal, generation on July 3, close to 29 GWh, marked the highest daily value for a July in the country’s history, while France set its record on July 4, with 165 GWh generated.
According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts, during the week of July 7, generation from this technology will increase in Spain, while it will decline in Germany and Italy compared to the previous week.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.In the week of June 30, wind energy production increased by 29% in Spain, 26% in Portugal and 5.4% in France compared to the previous week. However, in the Italian and German markets, wind energy generation declined by 49% and 46%, respectively.
According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts, most of the main European electricity markets will increase the wind energy generation during the second week of July, although Spain will see a decline compared to the previous week.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Electricity demand
In the first week of July, the main European markets increased their electricity demand compared to the previous week. The increases ranged from 0.8% in Germany to 6.6% in Spain. Portugal, Belgium and Italy also registered notable rises of 6.1%, 3.9% and 3.8%, respectively.
In terms of daily values, Mainland Spain registered its highest electricity demand so far in 2025 on July 2, with 806 GWh. Italy reached its highest demand of the year to date on July 4, with 1137 GWh.
The heatwave that affected Europe during the first week of July was the main driver of the increase in demand, as average temperatures rose in most of the markets analyzed. France and Belgium saw temperature increases of 0.5°C and 1.0°C, respectively. In contrast, average temperatures in Great Britain fell by 0.4°C compared to the previous week.
For the week of July 7, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts point to a decline in electricity demand in most of the main European markets, driven by the expected decrease in temperatures.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
In the first week of July, average prices in the main European electricity markets rose compared to the previous week. The MIBEL market of Portugal and Spain and the IPEX market of Italy registered the smallest price increases, at 4.4%, 4.5% and 4.7%, respectively. In contrast, the EPEX SPOT market of Germany and Belgium saw the largest percentage price increase, with both markets rising by 43%. In the other markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices rose between 23% in France’s EPEX SPOT market and the N2EX market of the United Kingdom, and 37% in the EPEX SPOT market of the Netherlands.
During the week of June 30, weekly averages exceeded €75/MWh in most European electricity markets. The exception was the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries, which averaged €20.04/MWh. The Italian market registered the highest weekly average, at €122.82/MWh. In the other markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices ranged between €75.50/MWh in the French market and €94.03/MWh in the Belgian market.
As for daily prices, on Thursday, July 3, the Nordic market registered the lowest daily average of the week among the analyzed markets, at €9.98/MWh. In contrast, most of the main European electricity markets reached daily prices above €100/MWh on several occasions during the first week of July. On Tuesday, July 1, daily prices exceeded €110/MWh in the main European electricity markets, except in the Nordic market. That day, the Belgian market registered the highest daily average of the week, at €151.71/MWh, its highest daily price since February 15.
Regarding hourly prices, the German, Belgian and Dutch markets registered hourly prices above €450/MWh on Tuesday, July 1. That day, from 20:00 to 21:00, the Belgian and Dutch markets reached the highest hourly price of the week, at €517.57/MWh. For the Dutch market, this was the highest price since January 21, while for the Belgian market, it was the highest since December 13, 2024.
In the week of June 30, higher demand along with a drop in wind energy production in markets such as Germany and Italy contributed to rising prices in European electricity markets. In addition, solar energy production declined in both Spain and Italy.
According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts, prices will fall in most of the main European electricity markets during the second week of July, driven by lower demand and increased wind energy production in most markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month on the ICE market began the first week of July with price declines. On Tuesday, July 1, these futures reached their weekly minimum settlement price at $67.11/bbl. However, after a 3.0% increase from the previous day, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price on July 2, at $69.11/bbl. Prices then fell again, with the settlement price on Friday, July 4, at $68.30/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was still 0.8% higher than the previous Friday.
Expectations of new production increases from OPEC+ put downward pressure on Brent oil futures during the first week of July. On July 2, prices rose following Iran’s suspension of cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency. However, the rise in US oil inventories contributed to renewed price declines. Finally, on Saturday, July 5, OPEC+ announced a production increase of 548 000 barrels per day starting in August.
As for TTF gas futures on the ICE market for the Front‑Month, on Monday, June 30, they reached their weekly minimum settlement price at €33.18/MWh. After a 2.3% increase from the previous day, these futures hit their weekly maximum settlement price on Tuesday, July 1, at €33.95/MWh. In the remaining sessions of the first week of July, settlement prices were slightly lower but remained above €33/MWh. On Friday, July 4, the settlement price stood at €33.47/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 1.2% higher than the previous Friday.
Abundant supply and expectations of lower consumption for electricity generation in the second week of July due to the anticipated drop in temperatures and increased wind energy production contributed to keeping TTF gas futures prices below €34/MWh during the first week of July.
As for CO2 emission allowance futures on the EEX market for the December 2025 reference contract, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price on Monday, June 30, at €68.97/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was the lowest price since May 6. Prices then increased and remained above €70/t for the rest of the week. On Thursday, July 3, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, at €72.08/t. On Friday, July 4, prices saw a slight decline, settling at €71.67/t. However, this price was still 1.0% higher than the previous Friday.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe, storage and project financing
On Thursday, July 10, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will host the 57th edition of its monthly webinar series. This session will focus on the evolution and prospects of European energy markets, as well as the current situation and prospects for PPA, with a particular emphasis on the perspective of large consumers. It will also address the prospects for energy storage and the IDAE funding call for energy storage projects.
The analysis panel of the webinar in Spanish will feature Pedro González, Director‑General of AEGE, and Roger Font, Managing Director Project Finance Energy at Banco Sabadell. Pedro González will provide insight into the perspective of electro‑intensive large consumers, while Roger Font will discuss the challenges and opportunities for storage and renewable energy project financing in the current market context.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.